Cheltenham Day 4

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
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Not my favourite day for betting but looking forward to the Gold Cup.

JCB Triumph Hurdle. This used to be one of my favourite races but no longer.
if I have abet it will be in the 5 places market and probably go with Scriptwriter. if he runs

County Handicap Hurdle: Piece of cake to work this one out.
Emmet Mullins's Filey Bay will win it doing handstands.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle: If the punters are right the Emmet Mullins's Corbett Cross will go off at very short odds.
I will be backing the double just for the fun of it.
I had a bet on this already and fancy the chances of HDB's Monty's Star who looks like the trip and ground will suit at 21/1.
He has been rock solid since and now 15/1 on the exchange compared to some bookies going as low as 8/1.

Cheltenham Gold Cup: I think Gallopin Des Champs is the Constitution Hill of chasing at the moment and could win this hands down.

I have a 20/1 double with Constitution Hill and Gallopin Des Champs and I am as confident as you dare be..

I will most likely NOt be backing anything else it all look way too complicated
The Hunters' Chase: Love to watch this but very doubtfull I will have a bet.
 
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No bet in the Triumph, Foxhunters or Martin Pipe.

COUNTY:
Filey Bay is my second biggest position all week which is strange as I've had only one bet in a handicap hurdle all season. He was so eye-catching in the Betfair, covered a long more ground than the winner and I'm happy with the 8/1 I got after that race. He's bred to stay further than 2m so this test will suit on the new course although I confess not sure about really deep ground.

ALBERT BARTLETT:
I've been interested in Three Card Brag for this ever since his runs earlier on in the season over two miles because he looked a right boat in both races. Corbett's Cross does worry me and it does look competitive. Hopeful rather than confident.

GOLD CUP:
My fancies for this are Protektorat and Stattler. I think it will be a stamina sapping renewal and for that reason I expect GDC, APT and BMG may struggle. I've added Noble Yeats in a couple of multis.

MARES CHASE:
AdV was one of my first ante-post bets of the year for this at nice prices. The jumping right the last day does worry me but I'm holding onto Willie's comments that she missed a schooling session that week because of the weather and I think she may have frightened herself when jumping fresh and very big at the first. She'll have a better prep for this and her jockey is sure to have a tighter reign on her at that first obstacle. Imprevious is a big danger.
 
Corbett's Cross in the could be anything category.
Part owned by a man from near the Cork=Kerry border when with Eugene his racing pals were sore at the price Emmet paid for him.
Emmet dating Maxine so wheels within wheels to get a supply chain going perhaps.
Imagine the corn flakes were more difficult to swallow for original owner when JP paid a multiple price some six weeks later.
Amusingly many years ago JP mistook Eugene O'Sullivan for famed Tipperary hurler Nicky English at Festival.
JP sent a horse or two to Eugene but things did not work out alas.
Another breeder from that Cork-Kerry (Sliabh Luachra) area sold a two year old Requinto at Goffs January Sale for 3500 Euro.
Four months later it made 165,000 at Breeze up !
 
Triumph - not really had a good look yet
County - Filey Bay and Gin Coco
Albie B - Hidden Valley Lake and Seabank Bistro
Gold Cup - BMG’s form looks the best on offer. A very competitive heat.
Foxhunters - Vaucelet; although he is only 8
Mares Chase - Impervious
Martin Pipe - Imagine and Cool Survivor

I’m running on vapours by Day 4, so it’ll be good to reference this post on Friday, just to stop any over-thinking.
 
I am wondering if anything can out run big odds in The Triumph. There's loads of unexposed horses open to lots of improvement...maybe there is one in there that can run a big race against the two hot favourites..or at least run into a race at a big price..I am still figuring this out.

The County is interesting. Lots of horses who appear to have proven form on good ground but will face different ground conditions tomorrow.

Milkwood really catches my eye as he is now on a near identical mark to the one where he finished third in this race before. Trainer Neil Mullholland seems to think he has this horse in top form.

The issue seems to be the soft ground. Milkwood has never really raced on it. Looking at his pedigree he is by Dylan Thomas who was a good to firm horse on the flat, but the dam Tropical Lake was a grade two winner for Michael Hourigan on soft ground at Aintree in the mid 1990's, so I just wonder will Milkwood be able to handle softer ground better than expected.

Here's hoping..

I also cannot believe the price of Sounds Russian in the Gold Cup. He has some form on soft or heavy going albeit at a lower level. I think he got done for toe against Ahoy Senor at the finish the last day when he tryed to make all. The jockey might be wise to ride him with a bit more restraint tomorrow and then hopefully he can finish his race off well.
 
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I'm marginally down on the week but have been pretty unlucky I reckon but that's Cheltenham for you.

Friday's fancies (written on Wednesday):

Triumph - Lossiemouth could well do a Facile Vega and bounce back from a disappointing run last time but 7/4 or thereabouts doesn’t stir the blood. De Bromhead’s horses are running out of their skins this week so Ascending (40/1) might be worth an each-way pop. There has to be a chance that one of the totally unexposed rank outsiders might make the frame so a very small stake on anything at 100s or better might be a bit of fun.

County - I love this race and it has been really kind to me down the years. Long list in order as per my ratings table, not necessarily in order of preference: Glory And Fortune, Highway One O Two, Faivoir, Milkwood, Sharjah, Aucunrisque, Gin Coco. I'll spread some cash a bit thinly across most of them and cover them all with Hunters Yarn. I get the Filey Bay hype but I can let him win at short odds.

Albert Bartlett - I’ve taken 9/1 Embassy Gardens. I’ll probably add one or two more if the prices look out of line relative to their rating or likely to improve a good bit for stepping up to this trip.

Gold Cup - The form of the De Bromhead stable has my hopes for A Plus Tard (10s and 12s ante-post) rising. Minella Indo (22/1) will carry an each-way pop with the ground coming for him. I have huge respect for Galopin Des Champs but can’t bring myself to back him at the odds. I’ll have to have something on Royale Pagaille (50s) with the ground coming for him too. He was second in the King George on his seasonal debut off an interrupted preparation and I heard or read something earlier in the season along the lines of him never being right last season and a lot better at home this time. He could be this year’s Davy Lad/Yahoo/Synchronised type.

Hunters - I’ll have a watching interest to small stakes on something that looks longer than it should be. It’s not long ago that Secret Investor was rated in the low 160s so maybe 14/1 or thereabouts will be worth chancing.

Mares' Chase - This is a glorified handicap. Again, small interest bets only at value odds (to be decided).

M Pipe - Long list: Fifty Ball, Felix Desjy, Might I, Imagine, Au Fleuron, Spirit Of Legend, In From The Cold. One of the interesting things about this bandits’ race is that four of the last five winners were high in the weights off more than 140. I wonder if that’s because trainers are managing to keep good ones under the 145 ceiling going into the race but ensuring they have a class advantage. That might make Felix Desjy and Might I interesting at 33/1 and 12/1 respectively. These and the others listed will carry some cash at the best odds and terms. My gut keeps drawing me towards In From The Cold (66/1) but the more I look at it the less I like it. Still, I have to go with my gut at the price. Fifty Ball (80/1) is well in on his old form and the jockey is as good as a non-claimer. He’s 5lbs lower than when splitting Soaring Glory and Edwardstone in the 2021 Betfair Hurdle.
 
Another bad day, in fact I've yet to back a winner.

Confidence is low but I'm gonna try and hit it out of the park tomorrow. Allegorie de Vassy (ap) and Filey Bay are two of my three strongest bets heading into the week and I think there is huge mileage on taking on the front three in the Gold Cup. It's gonna be well run and grueling - that counts against all three of them and I have Protektorat, Stattler and Noble Yeats at nice prices. I have also combined them in straight forecasts. The AB looks so tough but Three Card Brag should enjoy conditions and I like his chance of at least hitting the frame.

Good Luck.
 
Hoping to turn things around after yesterday.
County - Gin Coco 10/1
Albert Bartlett - Embassy Gardens 9/1
CGC - A Plus Tard 9/2
All B365
Luck to all.
 
Johnny Burke considered Gin Coco his best chance of the week.
Looks well in .
Don't forget Minella Indo on this ground, it should take some speed from the fast ones.
Wpm could make Ml O Sullivan's week in Martin Pipe.
 
Is anyone as shocked as I was to find 11 of the 15 runners in the Triumph are Irish trained? If we can’t even find enough young horses good enough to run in the race, let alone win it, what hope is there for the future?
 
There's been two impressive winners of handicaps this week both formerly trained in England both switched stables to Ireland and found loads of improvement, (Maskada and Seddon).

Usually my view on Irish dominance goes like this - The Irish trainers are being sent higher calibre horses by owners and the rest is history.

In the cases of Maskada and Seddon you have to wonder though how Stuart Edmunds and Harry Whittington feel...having horses moving yards and winning prestigious races at the Cheltenham Festival.

Maybe those Irish trainers are better trainers afterall...

Either that or Harry and Stuart were mere middle men in getting these horses well handicapped before they moved to Ireland.

Or maybe there is some other natural explanation and I am jumping to conclusions.
 
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They are better prepared. Fugitif second yesterday but if he'd not run in the iL Rodoto race he'd have been 6lbs lower. If you have a Festival handicap hprse leave them alone after Christmas. Pumpkin didn't run Stage Star after his win on trials day - Snowden ran Datsalrightgino in the Dipper - completely pointless.
 
barjon said:
Is anyone as shocked as I was to find 11 of the 15 runners in the Triumph are Irish trained? If we can’t even find enough young horses good enough to run in the race, let alone win it, what hope is there for the future?
Click to expand...

It did strike me when I checked the card on Wednesday. Weird indeed.
 
barjon said:
Is anyone as shocked as I was to find 11 of the 15 runners in the Triumph are Irish trained? If we can’t even find enough young horses good enough to run in the race, let alone win it, what hope is there for the future?
Click to expand...

No, not shocked

The B rate irish juveniles were being sent to the UK and winning all season
 
Marb said:
There's been two impressive winners of handicaps this week both formerly trained in England both switched stables to Ireland and found loads of improvement, (Maskada and Seddon).

Usually my view on Irish dominance goes like this - The Irish trainers are being sent higher calibre horses by owners and the rest is history.

In the cases of Maskada and Seddon you have to wonder though how Stuart Edmunds and Harry Whittington feel...having horses moving yards and winning prestigious races at the Cheltenham Festival.

Maybe those Irish trainers are better trainers afterall...

Either that or Harry and Stuart were mere middle men in getting these horses well handicapped before they moved to Ireland.

Or maybe there is some other natural explanation and I am jumping to conclusions.
Click to expand...

My ex has a very interesting theory on this. He thinks that the problem lies is with the training and more importantly the surfaces they are training on. Whereas the Irish horses seem to be trained in deep sand that makes them work hard at slower paces and toughens them up (they also put speed in on a better surface) whereas most UK trainers have invested in modern surfaces like poly track which is very much easier for the horses to gallop on.....in fact it’s like riding on a carpet in comparison. If you think how much training on sand did for Red Rum all those years ago, then maybe the British horses are just too soft?
 
Yes I completely agree. But they still probably got to this point for a good reason.
 
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