Cheltenham Festival Antepost Bets

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Maruco

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With Skybet now going no runner no bet it's a good time to get this up, particularly as it's useful for getting some good ideas.

These are all the multiples and singles I have so far including possible returns and, whilst there are one or two ropey looking multiples (Laurina in the mares for example), I'm pretty happy with my position at this stage.

All my multis are with 365, excluding four I cashed out early early involving Samcro for the JLT, and a couple I retrospectively edited. The 365 cash out option is great, and I wouldn't do multis anywhere else. The last three singles at the very bottom are my first nrnb's:

Buveur D’air 7/2, Penhill 5/1 £540
Laurina (Mares) 5/2, Tiger Roll 4/1, Altior 7/4 £481.25
Kalashnikov 10/1, Tiger Roll 4/1, Next Destination 10/1, Laurina (Mares) 5/2 £10587.50
Laurina (CH) 5/1, Tiger Roll 4/1 £300
Kalashnikov 6/1, Tiger Roll 4/1 £525
Kalashnikov 6/1, Tiger Roll 4/1, Footpad (CC) 3/1 £700
Kalashnikov 6/1, Tiger Roll 4/1, Altior 6/4 £1750
Kalashnikov 6/1, Tiger Roll 4/1, Buveur D’air 11/4 £1312.50
Annamix (Sup) 11/1, Tornado Flyer (BM) 25/1, Carefully Selected (AB) 20/1 £13104
Kalashnikov 6/1, Laurina (CH) 5/1, Tiger Roll 4/1 £1050
Lalor 4/1, Santini 7/2, Altior 5/4, Tiger Roll 3/1, Buveur D’air 1/1 £2025
Penhill 11/2, Presenting Percy 5/1, Tiger Roll 3/1, Lalor 4/1 £3993.51
Glenloe (NHC) 25/1, Tornado Flyer (BNH) 12/1, Next Destination (RSA) 8/1 EW £15645
Buveur D’air 8/11, Altior 1/2, Benie Des Dieux 3/1, Tiger Roll 3/1, Presenting Percy 5/1 £2280
Kalashnikov 6/1, Santini 7/2, Tiger Roll 3/1 £405
Presenting Percy 9/2, Gilgamboa 8/1 £990
Tiger Roll 3/1, Presenting Percy 9/2, Gilgamboa 8/1 £990
Tiger Roll 3/1, The Storyteller 20/1, Gilgamboa 8/1 £3780
Tornado Flyer 12/1, Next Destination 8/1 £585
Tornado Flyer 12/1, Next Destination 8/1, Vinndication 33/1 JLT EW £40890
Dynamite Dollars (ARK) 10/1, Blow By Blow (NHC) 20/1, The Storyteller (CC) 20/1, Tornado Flyer (BNH) 12/1, Next Destination (RSA) 8/1, Gilgamboa (FH) 8/1 10p ew Lucky 63 £814883.80
Kalashnikov 5/1, Next Destination 8/1, Topofthegame 12/1 £1951.56 (edited)
Road To Respect (GC) 12/1, Voix Du Reve (ARK) 16/1, EW £1429.13 (edited)
Adjali 16/1 ew Triumph £212
Buveur D’air 7/2 win Champion Hurdle £225
Tiger Roll 4/1 win X-Country £250
Presenting Percy 5/1 win Gold Gup £300
Kalashnikov 10/1 win Arkle £220
Next Destination 10/1 win RSA £220
Dynamite Dollars 14/1 ew Arkle £282
Tornado Flyer 25/1 ew Ballymore £320
Carefully Selected 25/1 ew Albert Bartlett £320
Road To Respect 12/1 ew Gold Cup £246
Gilgamboa 8/1 win Foxhunter £180
Vinndication 33/1 ew JLT £416
Glenloe 14/1 nrnb NHC £188
Benie Des Dieux 10/1 ew nrnb Ryanair £210
Black Op 14/1 ew nrnb Stayers £282

So what have you got guys? I generally start topping up again in January and I'm looking for some inspiration.
 
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I don't really play these markets anymore as day of racing market tends to be so competitive anyway but Monalee in the Ryanair will be my biggest winner of what i have down so far
 
I tend to dick around with trebles up ew on 6 selections for small stakes, otherwise I follow the Granger logic. Someday my ship will come in but with my luck I'll probably be at the airport when it does.
 
Skybet was the default option for me for around 3 years but now don’t let me have the benefit of bonus offers.
 
Arkle - Defi 25s
Arkle - Lalor 7s
CH - Melon 10s
NHC - Ballyward 33s
RSA - Santini 12s
QM - Min 25s
Ryan - Monalee 16s
Ryan - Shattered Love 16s
GC - R2R 18s
Any - Paloma Blue 15s

Multis
Kew Gardens (Leg) :)Roaring Lion (ICS) :) Footpad (QM) 4s Treb
Footpad (Ryan), Percy (GC) 5s&9/2 NRNB
Footpad (QM), Percy (GC) 7s&4s NRNB
Kalashnikov (JLT 5s), Top Notch (Ryan 12s), Paisley Park (SH 10s), Percy (GC 4s) L15 NRNB
Lalor (Ark 11/2), Topofthegame (RSA 8s), R2R (GC 12s) Trix NRNB

 
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Monalee for the Ryanair nrnb is a good shout. I've had a nagging feeling they might chance their arm in the Gold Cup so I've left him alone so far. There's not many at the head of the Ryanair market that will likely turn up which creates some nice value prices.

Out of interest Euro, the Footpad multiple that doesn't happen, is it a void bet or does it become a single on Percy?
 
Oh yes, I've recorded every bet I've made since 1991. Been a good last few years - leaving the railway in 2013 was the best thing that's ever happened to my betting.












 
I've got Al Boum Photo 33's for the Gold Cup antepost. If it turns up soft ground, I think he's a big player.
A clean round of jumping (which is a slight concern with him, ask Ruby!) & he'll be there at the finish in my opinion. Needs some cut though.Of course a slight danger they may go Ryanair.
If it's good ground, I fancy Road to Respect.
 
It's been a really weird year for ante post betting for me. I was saying to wilsonl the other day, last year I stood to win £15k+ from free bet concessions from bookies throughout the year and putting them on multiples but this year its probably only £1k because bookies have just become worse and worse.
In past years I have got really stuck in antepost as well but it is so tricky but that is also why I think it is going to be one of the best festivals in years viewing wise...punting wise however, it could be a blood bath!
I was so sweet on Footpad from then end of last season for the QMCC but now I just can't see past Altior but he is the only banker for me at this time which is great! I backed Laurina immediately after last years Mares Novice for the Champion but that was only a small stake!

Apart from silly multiples from Sky Bets (generous :whistle:) £5 free bet a week mainly with Santini, Buveur, Laurina, Delta Work, Percy, Tiger Roll and Apples Jade (all the obvious ones); I only have Espoir Dallen at 25/1 nrnb for the Champion and Vinndication at 20/1 for the JLT in my book, which now Master Dino sadly won't be turning up, I am quietly confident on.

I was keen early doors on Blow by Blow for the 4 miler (and still am) along with Mortal, I like Paisley Park for the Stayers and I like Tiger Tap Tap in the Triumph but I will most probably wait to wet my whistle until after Dublin.

But if you pressed me now...and I am not going to reinvent the wheel....
Champion - Laurina (awful price)
QMCC - Altior wins
Ryan Air - Waiting Patiently
Stayers - Paisley Park
Gold Cup - Percy but if what is said on here is true I would give Kemboy a squeak
 
There's a decent opening day e/w treble containing three solid, potential winners that are "likely" to attend the gigs.

Al Dancer (Supreme). There may be sexier horses yet to come to the fore in this race such as Angels Breath and Champagne Platinum (who I've had a nibble at at 16/1) but the Twister horse is scheduled to run in the Betfair and that's a race that I've always been keen to see Supreme candidates take in as it gives them the experience of big field, truly run races - as opposed to hosing up in 4-5 runner graded novice events. 12/1 1/4 odds currently available, which is fair considering he'll be much shorter should he win the betfair off 141. MTOY p1ssed up in that race admittedly but was borderline even money for the Supreme shortly afterwards. Something that will live long in the brain as I was holding a 33/1 win only voucher and had already spent the winnings half way up the Prestbury hill :(

Le Richebourg (Arkle). Good ground horse who I've liked since his bumper days. Seemed to lose his way at the start of last year but has been steadily brought to hand by his talented trainer. Will be shorter than the 8/1 currently available if he wins at the DRF, which is his next target.

OK Corral (NH Chase). I like this race as a stepping stone to Cheltenham and as much as I like Rocky's Treasure I've a suspicion he'll go RSA route and it has to be extremely telling that O'Connor comes over for the ride on Hendo's horse. This fella finished a staying on second in the potato race last year so has course form and even an honourable defeat tomorrow will mean he's nowhere near double figures on the day with DOC on board in a race where the jockey has proved to be hugely influential. Unfortunately his odds are tumbling as a result of tomorrow's jockey booking but still available at 8/1

so...

Al Dancer 12/1
Le Richebourg 7/1
Ok Corral 8/1

e/w treble has just been backed with Bet365
 
wilsonl said:
Twister horse is scheduled to run in the Betfair and that's a race that I've always been keen to see Supreme candidates take in as it gives them the experience of big field, truly run races - as opposed to hosing up in 4-5 runner graded novice events.
Click to expand...

I like the competitiveness of the Betfair too and had a good sized bet on Kalashnikov for the Supreme last year. But I'm wondering, how many horses have won the Betfair and gone on to win the Supreme. MTOY came closest that I can recall, in recent years anyway. What about placed horses in the Betfair that have won the Supreme?

My point is that while I fully agree with the experience of a big field truly run race that the Betfair gives Novices - the record of them actually winner the Supreme is terrible.
 
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But there have been plenty that have run well in both DH and that's good enough for me. Of course Al Dancer first needs to put in a performance in arguably the most competitive handicap hurdle outside of the festival (for which he's currently favourite) but if he does then his chances of hitting the frame in, with a genuine chance of winning, the Supreme would be extremely high IMO, especially in a year where at this stage there appear to be no standout.
 
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Double Handful said:
What about placed horses in the Betfair that have won the Supreme?

My point is that while I fully agree with the experience of a big field truly run races that the betfair gives Novices - the record of them actually winner the Supreme is terrible.
Click to expand...

Get me out of here and Darlan off the top of me head ran well in both, Darlan falling when looking the likely winner at Newbury
 
The thing is, those horses and Recession Proof who having won the Betfair finished 5th behind 4 top, top class horses in undoubtedly the best Supreme of all time, and even Ballyandy are from a relatively small number of novices to run at Newbury.
 
I agree. Forget the stat for winners. So many have gone close and it's an irrefutable fact that they have a great record in the Supreme.
 
Whilst there’s a case to be made for saying the race brings novices on, there’s probably also a case to be made for saying it might also knock the edge of them a little bit.......or at least, that it’s perhaps harder to recover from, than other potential prep races.

FWIW, I reckon it looks inconclusive either way, and it’s probably wise to consider both factors, when weighing-up the Supreme. I’m not convinced there’s evidence to suggest it’s more significant a trial than, say the Tolworth. For a start, there’s been too many Irish winners of the race, that never went anywhere near Newbury.

IMO, whilst it looks like a potentially informative stat, it would be wrong to assume that it’s key to unlocking the Supreme.
 
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