Cheltenham Festival Antepost Bets

I've added another a/p bet to my portfolio this evening.

I've just checked the sectionals of the two good chases at Kempton on Saturday, Top Notch's race and Glen Rocco's race, the latter race being run over about half a mile further.

I timed both races from the same point, the first fence in the shorter race, and I find it the results very interesting. I'm still a novince at this sectional stuff but I can't help thinking this may be significant.

Overall, naturally, Top Notch's race was faster. That was to be expected with Speredek taking them so far then Charbel pressing on. But from the first fence away from the stands on the final circuit to the line Glen Rocco has run two seconds faster (ten lengths?) despite easing down a few lengths close home. So while Top Notch and co were going hard at it in a good race, Glen Rocco was going faster.

OK, he was carrying 18lbs less than Top Notch but he won't be taking on Top Notch at levels any time soon. He'll be running in handicaps and I reckon even off 13lbs higher he's potentially handicapped to win a festival handicap. The only one for which I can find NRNB/BOG on offer is the Ultima, for which I've taken 16/1. There has to be a chance he'll improve a bit again by then so I'd prefer not to see him run again and I suppose there's a chance he's better going right-handed. But if he gets there I'll be surprised if he's a double-digit price and if he doesn't I haven't lost anything.
 
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DO
Overall, naturally, Top Notch's race was faster. That was to be expected with Speredek taking them so far then Charbel pressing on. But from the first fence away from the stands on the final circuit to the line Glen Rocco has run two seconds faster (ten lengths?) despite easing down a few lengths close home. So while Top Notch and co were going hard at it in a good race, Glen Rocco was going faster.
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Maybe I'm missing something here, but wouldn't GR naturally be finishing quicker against what appears a much less exacting pace than was the case in TN's race?
 
This is why I call myself a novice. I don't really know enough yet.

What I can say is that when I've compared longer hurdles races with shorter ones, the longer races are almost invariably quite a bit slower over the last mile.

I reckon with stayers it's a matter of which is slowing down the least.

The ones behind Glen Rocco were running to expectations in that they slowed dramatically but even easing down GR was a second quicker from the last to the line than Top Notch.
 
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Tbh DO, though I believe pace is important in judging the result of most races, I'm wary of trusting sectionals for NHracing, and have been ever since Nick Mordin (way back) drew some lurid conclusions from timing just part of such races.
Two personal rules of thumb which you might (or may not) find useful, both common sense really:
The shorter the race, the more likely the pace is a true reflection - both disciplines.
Pace will always affect stamina.
 
reet hard said:
Tbh DO, though I believe pace is important in judging the result of most races, I'm wary of trusting sectionals for NHracing, and have been ever since Nick Mordin (way back) drew some lurid conclusions from timing just part of such races.
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I don't entirely trust times or sectionals for NH racing either, reet, but I do like to dabble/experiment in comparisons and every now and again I find they throw up important stuff perhaps not obvious to the majority of punters. Some of my most satisfying wins have been when farting against thunder :lol:


reet hard said:
Two personal rules of thumb which you might (or may not) find useful, both common sense really:
The shorter the race, the more likely the pace is a true reflection - both disciplines.
Pace will always affect stamina.
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I pretty much already work to both rules.

As a bit of an aside to the second one - which might seem contradictory to my post about Glen Rocco - I thought it was interesting that Black Corton, urged along for more than half the race the other day, was still only a few lengths down at the line. My interpretation is that they had gone so fast they were slowing down allowing his 3m stamina to keep him going up the straight. On the other hand, they were clearly going a very fast pace even for a 2½-mile race yet for almost the entire final lap Glen Rocco was going faster than Top Notch, not just in the closing couple of furlongs. That's what I think might be significant.

I'll be looking again at the beaten horses for reliable collateral lines from which to assess the winner but my feeling right now is that 13lbs might be a lenient rise for Glen Rocco. I think he's probably some way better than a handicapper.
 
Not at all sure they were going "a very fast pace" DO; T/S figures for the day show the time as distinctly ordinary, on ground that appeared borderline g/f anyway.Add (as Euro highlighted) that most of the market opposition was out well before the finish, and he's beaten a modest 11yo who showed no sign of improvement, and GR falls well short of your lofty aspiration,imo. Has the scope to progress, but has yet to feature in a race run at a higher level pace, so he'll need to.
Black Corton, conversely,a horse, though the same age and whom I'd regarded as a 'bit of a boat' previously, did show improvement, imo (albeit on ground in his favour), and promises to win something decent before he's much older.
 
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I've now also checked the handicap won by Mercian Prince over the sane C&D as Top Notch on the day. For some reason I thought there were only two chases on the card.

Anyway, tonight is the first I've seen MP's race and he was also very impressive. It wasn't a big field but he led and jumped his opponents silly - I'd love to see him in the Topham - and it's easy to argue that race fell apart too. But did it?

From Fence 1 to 6 MP was, despite seemingly setting off at a decent pace and jumping really well, five seconds slower than Top Notch's race. MP then made up a bit of ground to the next but lost it again and more over the next section before pulling it back a bit. By Fence 11 MP was still four seconds off the leader in TN's race. That's probably to be expected given that it was a lesser race and MP was carrying 4lbs more than TN. Glen Rocco, to the same point, was two seconds behind MP having already covered half a mile further.

From there to the line, Top Notch's race took 97s, Mercian Prince took 96s (easing down) and Glen Rocco took 96s (easing down). Once again, Glen Rocco was going at the same speed as the two shorter races. That's why I think Top Notch's race was fast-run. (I have a time rating of 161 for it.) Now MP was admittedly eased further from the line than GR but I'm not sure he had too much more to offer. I thought he was being ridden as though starting to tire going to the last. I thought GR was just starting to motor at that stage.

As I said before, I think GR put up a very smart final lap for a stayer compared with essentially faster horses. I think he may be on a very steep curve and that, as much as the bare time for that lap, is what has me excited about his prospects.

I accept there's every chance I'm getting this wrong but I'm more than happy to back up my feelings with cash when GR runs in a suitable race, which I hope is the Ultima next time out. I do wonder, though, if a return here for the RP Chase - whatever it's now called - over course and distance is the aim.

PS - I agree about Black Corton. He's still on the up, I think.
 
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Another added today:

Frodon NRNB/BOG in the Shitebagair (12/1) and the Gold Cup (33/1 ew).

I think the first race is his for the taking if he goes there and he'll win the Gold Cup if he stays. Apparently he might take in the Cotswolds Chase to see if he stays. If he runs very well (let alone wins) he'll shorten and if he doesn't stay he probably won't run. I can live with either scenario.
 
Euronymous said:
Arkle - Defi 25s
Arkle - Lalor 7s
CH - Melon 10s
NHC - Ballyward 33s
RSA - Santini 12s
QM - Min 25s
Ryan - Monalee 16s
Ryan - Shattered Love 16s
GC - R2R 18s
Any - Paloma Blue 15s

Multis
Kew Gardens (Leg) :)Roaring Lion (ICS) :) Footpad (QM) 4s Treb
Footpad (Ryan), Percy (GC) 5s&9/2 NRNB
Footpad (QM), Percy (GC) 7s&4s NRNB
Kalashnikov (JLT 5s), Top Notch (Ryan 12s), Paisley Park (SH 10s), Percy (GC 4s) L15 NRNB
Lalor (Ark 11/2), Topofthegame (RSA 8s), R2R (GC 12s) Trix NRNB
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Added since:
JLT - Master Dino 16s :(
SH - Black Op 16s ew NRNB
GC - Clan Des Obeaux 9s ew NRNB
Foxhunters - Caid Du Berlais 20s ew
Any - Battleoverdoyen 22s

Multi:
Tiger Roll (xc 9/4), Delta Work (rsa 4s), Monalee (Ry 7s) Trixie NRNB
 
Supreme - Elixir De Nutz 10s ew NRNB
Arkle - Defi 25s, Le Rich 10/3:(Lalor 6s
Hardline 25s ew NRNB
Ultima-Talkischeap 12s ew
CH-Melon 10s ew, Apple's Jade 9s NRNB Buveur D'air 2s
Close Bros-A Plus Tard 16s NRNB
NHC-Ballyward 33s & 9/2 NRNB
Bally- Brewin'upastorm 10s ew NRNB
RSA- Santini 12s, Delta Work 9/2 NRNB
QM- Min 25s & 8s NRNB
JLT- Master Dino:(Topofthegame 7s ew NRNB, Hardline 16s ew NRNB, Real Steel 22s ew NRNB
RY- Monalee 16s & 13/2 NRNB, Shattered Love 16s, Top Notch 10s ew NRNB, Footpad 6s NRNB
Stayers- Black Op 16s ew NRNB
Gold Cup- R2R 18s, Clan 9s ew NRNB
Fox- Caid Du Berlais 20s ew
Any Race- Paloma Blue 15s, Battleoverdoyen 22s, Topofthegame 54/10

Multis:
Ark/RSA Glen Forsa/Topofthegame 6s&9/2 ew
Ark/RSA/GC Lalor/Topofthegame/R2R 11/2,8s,12s NRNB Trix
Red Mills/CH Monalee:DApple's Jade 4s&9/4
SB/CH/RSA Patriots:DBuveur D'air/Delta Work 7/2,6/4,4s
CH/RSA Buveur D'air/Santini 2s&3s
DubC/RSA Min:DDelta Work 5/2&5s
StL/ICS/QM Kew Gardens:DRoaring Lion:DFootpad 9/4,4/5,4s Treb
QM/GC Footpad/Percy 5s&9/2 NRNB


RSA/XC/RY Delta Work/Tiger Roll/Monalee 4s,9/4,7s trix
RY/NBA se div' Monalee/Magic 13/2&7s
JLT/RY/SH/GC Kalashnikov/Top Notch/Paisley Park/Percy 5s,12s,10s,4s NRNB
L15
RY/GC Footpad/Percy 4s&9/2 NRNB
 
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Supreme Angels Breath 10/1 Itchy Feet 40/1
Arkle Lalor 10/1
CH Buveur d’Air 3/1
Mares Roksana 16/1
Ballymore Champ 11/2
RSA Delta Work 12/1 Topofthegame 16/1
QM Altior 15/8 (remains unbeaten all season)
JLT Master Dino 10/1 [emoji25]Vinndication 25/1
Ryanair Frodon 12/1 NRNB Al Boum Photo 12/1 NRNB
Stayers Paisley Park 16/1 Faugheen 7/1
Triumph Sir Erec 3/1
Gold Cup CDO 9/1 R2R 16/1

Multis
Champ/OK Corral 24/1
Sir Erec/Apple’s Jade (CH NRNB) 12/1




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