Cheltenham Festival Going

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
9,534
Location
Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
So many people have said that we should get faster ground for the Festival. I have gritted my teeth when people have said that we are sure to get good to soft ground or faster. March is not the driest month, and there is nothing to stop the ground being heavy if we get a wet spell over the next 2 weeks or so.

However, this might be the case this year. The Gloucestershire area is forecast very little rain for the next 10 days, and longer range indications are that it may be dry enough after that.

Given that it is 22 days to the Festival, I thought some of you might be interested.
 
I got into racing around 2003, I'm not sure I remember a heavy ground race at the festival in that time? Do the BHA keep going stick readings?

The amount of rainfall is surely not the only consideration either? The relative temperatures, winds and the nature of Cheltenhams topography (and its greatly improved drainage) have to be taken into account.
 
The only thing certain about the ground at the Festival is that you will get f*ck-all in the way of help from Simon Claisse to figure it out. :cool:
 
Let's think about this.
Cheltenham drains well and it is quite possible that there will be good/good soft ground. If that's the case then much of this seasons form to date can consigned to the wpb. Prices for horses suited by that going will shorten and vice versa.
But horses suited by such going will not have had proper race tuning and in many cases not necessarily had uninterrupted preparation. So should we be looking for upsets.
 
And any long-range weather forecast beyond five days is guesswork. The water table is high, the ground is saturated - any rainfall will turn the ground from soft to heavy very quickly. Temperatures need to rise above 10 degrees and we need drying winds before we can even contemplate good ground.

I think we will be seeing horses that look like they have finished a Welsh National, all week long.
 
the water saturation is high and i dont think the ground will be drying out as quickly as it has in the past few festivals

i think good to soft ground will be the order which actually shouldnt hinder to many horses except for the real mudlarks or top of the ground horses.

there will still be some guesstimates about the value of previous form on soft/heavy ground being replicated though
 
Doncaster ground is borderline 'good' tomorrow (g/s 7.6 - 7.9) and Kempton promises to be no worse for the weekend. Both are well drained courses, but Cheltenham would be their equal.
I'd have it a shade of odds-on the hosepipe will be out before the Festival.
 
Last edited:
Man to ask is Rory who I believe practically lives on the course. He was saying something about the water level has been much higher this year than in the past and the chances of good ground is much less likely than in previous years........not sure exactly what he was talking about.....less than 3 weeks to go we'll know soon enough.....I'm very optimistic though I recon it will snow and be called off and save us all a fortune:D
 
They talked about an abnormally high water table a few years ago and we started with good ground. A dry week would see a dramatic firming up of the going. I reckon they will end up watering in advance of the opening day as they've - wrongly, in my opinion - stated they want to start the meeting with ground on the soft side of good.
 
Simon Claisse on local radio this morning saying we have just had seven dry days running, the longest spell of dry weather since last April. Going is currently soft, good to soft in places and given the forecast is for another dry week expects it to be predominantly good to soft by the end of next week.
 
That would be great if it does. I was there in 1975 when the ground was hock deep and most horses couldn't put one leg in front of the other. Not a pretty sight
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Simon Claisse on local radio this morning saying we have just had seven dry days running, the longest spell of dry weather since last April. Going is currently soft, good to soft in places and given the forecast is for another dry week expects it to be predominantly good to soft by the end of next week.
Click to expand...

But Claisse is a clown. He said at the Paddy Power meeting that 6mm of rain had fallen overnight and the good would now be soft on the Saturday. I think we remember the state of the ground and the state of those horses on the Saturday.

As I've said, one spell of rain in the next two weeks changes the ground conditions overnight.
 
Fair enuff Len, you've obviously got it all sussed,not worth posting any further updates.
 
Last edited:
So it is forecast to be dry until the middle of next week, when the outlook becomes gradually more unsettled.

I would guess that with temperatures gradually creeping up in the coming days, we could have decent ground by Monday. Any more rain after that and all bets are off.
 
From RP

CHELTENHAM clerk of the course Simon Claisse on Tuesday cast doubt on the likelihood of having to water before the festival after a revised weather forecast predicted rain in the lead-up to the meeting.
Claisse said the rate the track was drying out had slowed and that the going remained a mix of soft and good to soft on the Old, New and Cross Country course.
"I had an update yesterday from John Kettley, who is suggesting that from Thursday of next week until the beginning of the festival there will be rain," he said.
"His range was between 12 and 15mm, more on the Saturday, Sunday and Monday than on the Thursday and Friday. It's still a long way out to be certain, but on the basis of that forecast I could confidently rule out watering."
 
What's the general consensus about watering?would rather see him water or leave well alone?I can see some freak results on the horizon
 
Back
Top