Cheltenham Festival - my thoughts

Grasshopper

Grasshopper

Senior Jockey
Joined
Nov 14, 2006
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Given the lack of racing at present, and the consequent lack of discussion to get me through my interminably dull working day, here are my medium-range thoughts for some of the Festival races:

Supreme Novices
No real reason to look past Dunguib, as he has done nothing wrong, but his form doesn't look quite so rosy after Christmas as it did beforehand, and I think he has to be opposed on price alone. My idea of the winner is Quantitativeeasing. He has barely come off the bridle in his two novice hurdle outings, showing a decent turn of foot both times to quickly settle matters. He is also related to Asian Maze, and should run-on strongly up the hill too. Bet365 and Corals are taking a chance at 20/1, imo.

Arkle Chase
Very competitive, and with no real standout candidate for me at present. If pushed to have a bet, I'd probably plump for Tataniano at a general 8/1, who has done very little wrong and has the course form over fences in the bag already. It wouldn't be with a huge amount of confidence though.

Champion Hurdle
Again, very tough to have a strong opinion about any of them, but the one I keep coming back to is Solwhit (6/1 in places). Newcastle was a disappointment, but I liked the way he got his head down against Sublimity, and the race will certainly be run to suit. Has proven class, and if he had never travelled to Newcastle (a race that is dubious, imo), he would be a 3/1 chance.

Baring Bingham Hurdle
I think a few at the head of the market may not run, in which case Shinrock Paddy looks a great each-way bet at 20/1 with Ladbrokes. Was seriously impressive in the Barry & Sandra Kelly, acts on all kinds of ground, and has won at the track in a Bumper. Coral's 10/1 is much more idea of the right price.

RSA Chase
I'm quite convinced that Mikael D'Haguenet will not run here, and even if he did, I am very confident about Punchestowns chances (9/2 with Hills). The trainer has talked about the RyanAir being a possible target, but that was prior to Long Run being mentioned for the Arkle, and he seems sure to take his chance in this. Has the class, physique and stamina, and is a worthy favourite (even if Long Run does oppose).

Champion Chase
In the expectation that Master Minded will either miss the race, or be below form if he doesn't, I think Petit Robin is perhaps the best value in the graveyard at a general 14/1. Ran a big race in finishing third last year, and looked impressive at Sandown first-time-out (if anyone saw the video of him working against Finian's Rainbow on RPTV, it certainly pointed to his chances in the Desert Orchid). He looks an improved horse this year, and with sevreal of the principals having question marks against them, he looks decent each-way value.

RyanAir Chase
Imperial Commander would be the immediate selection if I thought he was going to run here, but it seems connections are determined to pursue a futile Gold Cup run, in which case I'd be inclined to side with Tranquil Sea at a freely available 7/1. There isn't a great deal between Tranquil Sea and Poquelin, but I think the former was more impressive in winning the Paddy power, than the latter was in winning the Boyslesports, and he seems to me to be a more assured stayer than Andy Stewart's horse.

World Hurdle
Big Buck's will piss it.

Gold Cup
My heart says Kauto Star......and my head says Kauto Star......but I won't be backing him, because Denman is simply too good to be in any way certain. What A Friend seems likely to swerve the Festival and be kept back for the BetFair Bowl at Aintree, Joncol doesn't appear to have much chance of staying the trip (same applies to Imperial Commander), Cooldine is out of sorts, and none of the rest inspire at all. The each-way bet might be Cappa Bleu at 66/1, who has at least won over course and distance, but it would be suggested with the bare minimum of confidence i.e zero.

Smoke 'em if you got 'em.
 
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It would take a very brave punter to back Dunguib at 6/4 at this stage. He might start longer on the day as other form develops between now and then. It strikes me as the bookies trying to sucker punters into a bet. If he stays 6/4 there will almost certainly be a market without the fav where there could be some real value.
 
Good stuff Grasshopper. The one horse I am all over for those novice staying hurdles is Quel Esprit. Whatever race he turns up in he will go off favourite and will be hard to beat.

Dunguib is a puzzler - looks brilliant but the form is not there yet for one so short. I like what Menorah did at Kempton and would be more interested in him at his 10/1 price.
 
Grassy, I'll complement your early thread by opening up with one detailing where the Previews will be held. They've started to be advertised already! Nice little earners they are, too, for some jocks and a few pundits.
 
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Agreed about Quel Esprit, Gal - really lovely individual.

I'm waiting to back him for next year's RSA Chase. :)
 
Now for something completely different.

Because of this cold spell any chestnut (this includes Denman btw) won't be winning at the Festival.
 
I'm already on Pistolet Noir for the Triumph but I was checking through some form tonight and I just wonder if the juvenile hurdle at Newbury just at the new year might throw up the winner from one of the front two. The time rating worked out on a par with Big Buck's and was 20lbs faster than Quantitativeeasing. It probably means only the juv race was true run but the distances in behind were colossal on admittedly very heavy ground.
 
Masterminded has to be the bet of the meeting think a lot of people are gonna be kicking themselves. What a price!
 
Very early to be taking a serious view.I would say the longer this cold snap goes on the more it will favour big trainers with top class facilities.
 
LUKE said:
I would say the longer this cold snap goes on the more it will favour big trainers with top class facilities.
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All trainers, big or small, are in the same boat. The best facilities in the world aren't much help if they're deep frozen and under a foot of snow. All the trainers can do is canter their horses in the snow (provided it's dry and powdery), which will keep an already fit horse ticking over.

A trainer like Ferdy Murphy, who has access to a beach where horses can actually gallop, should be in an advantageous position when racing resumes.
 
I don't think they are all in the same boat.

Some trainers have indoor arenas, swimming pools, etc. Some, as you say, have access to the beach. Some have better AW gallops than others.

And some won't be under as much snow or have suffered as much frost as others.

DG's comment still intrigues me, though...
 
Because of cold weather chestnuts are much slower to come into their coats which remain dull. Four years ago when there was a considerable cold spell earlier in the year none of the Festival winners was a chestnut.

Incidentally someone at the stable has told me they don't clip some of their chestnuts now until much later in an effort to negate this, maybe some other yards will take this action ? Denman is (was?) quite shaggy apparently.A run in either the Irish Hennessy or the Aon should enable us to take a view,
 
Interesting.

How many chestnut winners are there normally? Anyone know?

Were any of the beaten chestnuts at the festival four years ago shock/surprise defeats?

Are greys affected by this phenomenon at all?

(Just questions, not sniping.)
 
I've done a wee bit of 'research'...

In 2006, I'm not sure you could call it a big freeze to begin with. There weren't many abandonments. a few from the end of Jan to mid Feb but plenty other racing took place over that period. There was another couple at the start of March.

As for the festival races, not many runners were chestnuts to begin with. In the first race, Straw Bear would have won but for getting the last hurdle all wrong, which would have disproved the theory straight away.

Later that day, Juveigneur ran a great second in the Wm Hill, thwarted only by the monster late run of Dun doire.

On the Thursday, Copsale Lad and Direct Flight were both placed in the Jewson, Kelrev was second (50/1), and so was Beantown (nck, 40/1).

On Gold Cup day, L'Ami was a good fourth in the big race as was Bothar na in the Foxhunters.

You could argue that that's how they were entitled to run at best. OK, Denman did get beat in his race on the Wednesday but hotpots don't always win anyway.

I think I'd want to look at a year when the frost was more persistent and affected the sport more than 2006 for more compelling evidence bearing in mind my opening comment.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think I'd want to look at a year when the frost was more persistent and affected the sport more than 2006 for more compelling evidence bearing in mind my opening comment.
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The media were talking about a 'big freeze' hitting racing in January last year. It didn't appear to stop a number of chestnuts running their races at the festival, with two of them winning.
 
Quantatative Easing wont be going for the supreme as his stated target is the Neptune race. I'm also sure they have said Petit Robin will miss cheltenham and go to aintree. I do think QE will be very hard to beat in that race looks a serious good horse over 2m and with further improvement almost certainly guaranteed over further will be one of my bankers of the meet.
 
Fancy Bobby Ewing at a big price for whichever race he goes - he was beaten by Tell Massini and Reve De Sivola at Cheltenham and went on to beat Menorah comfortably (since beaten Belvano) at Doncaster. He's a big price considering the form.

Tell Massini is IMO the best staying novice hurdler in training - his form is rock solid and is being franked all over the place (Reve winning at Newbury, Chamirey winning off 131 in a handicap - was beaten quite a way at Chepstow on TM's hurdling debut). Only problem is Tom George said he won't run the horse unless the ground is suitable (ie. soft).
 
Kauto said:
Quantatative Easing wont be going for the supreme as his stated target is the Neptune race.
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Long Run's stated aim was the RSA Chase and Punchestowns the RyanAir Chase, immediately after the Feltham was run, Kauto - in other words, connections are prone to changes of heart.

JP McManus's other obvious ones for the Supreme (Bellvano and Sweeps Hill) have both failed to impress in their most recent runs, and it would consequently be no shock to see Quantitativeeasing represent him in the 2-miler.

Similarly, with question marks surrounding Master Minded, it's hard to imagine Petit Robin swerving the Champion Chase to wait for Aintree - especially after finishing third in the race last year.
 
Grasshopper said:
Long Run's stated aim was the RSA Chase and Punchestowns the RyanAir Chase, immediately after the Feltham was run, Kauto - in other words, connections are prone to changes of heart.

JP McManus's other obvious ones for the Supreme (Bellvano and Sweeps Hill) have both failed to impress in their most recent runs, and it would consequently be no shock to see Quantitativeeasing represent him in the 2-miler.

Similarly, with question marks surrounding Master Minded, it's hard to imagine Petit Robin swerving the Champion Chase to wait for Aintree - especially after finishing third in the race last year.
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Yep agree they have changes of heart but it is very unlikely with this horse when they know it i desperate for further....look at what it did at newbury in that bog.
Again agree about Petit Robin but like I said im pretty sure they have made there minds up and wont be changing it
 
I find it odd that they were/are considering PUNCHESTOWNs for the RYANAIR. The easiest way to ruin a horses confidence is to run him against experienced horses when the horse itself has very little experience. Surely that can't still be the plan? They wouldn't send a horse to the Ryanair with only 2(?) runs over fences? Asking for trouble if they do.....
 
It was my understanding they had got to the bottom of MM and that it was a problem with a rib. Only one winner of the Champion Chase now imo.
 
Petit Robin would be of no interest to me at all. Simply too prone to blunders and thats a no brainer at the Festival.
 
Is Denman not an odd type of chestnut? Liver Chestnut if I remember correctly. So applying the chestnut thing is not necessarily correct. However, if my brain is working correctly liver chestnut's are generally the worst affected.
 
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