I suggested a few weeks ago that multiples and accas have been good to me over the years at The Festival, and have been my most profitable bets overall. Bear also asked me yesterday on another thread about my strategy and for a bit more information, so I thought I’d start this thread to answer his question in more detail, and hopefully to get some ideas of bets and bet-types that have worked well for others who are willing to share.
Accas at the Festival have been profitable overall for me, but I’ve only come up trumps three times in 20 years, and I don’t have a high strike rate. However, my returns far outstrip my stakes for the whole period. Overall I have staked £2000 on 40 bets but my returns are over £7000 from only 3 bets. You could argue that if it ain't broke don't fix it, but I intend to significantly increase my total stake this year and also the number of accas I do. I'm also going to reduce the number of horses I put in each and spread the risk. The potential returns for each bet will be lower, but the intention is to try to increase my strike-rate. So the annual £100 investment is going up to £300, and it’ll be split into 3 x 4 horse £50 win accumulators, and 3 x 4 horse £25ew accumulators.
In terms of approach, I never do my accumulators in advance. There’s an argument that says the best value is early, and that may well be true, but I much prefer to know that all my horses are running, are fit and well, and are unlikely to get switched to another race. No bets are wasted. Also I’ve seen all the available form, and I’ve got a pretty good idea what the weather is going to be like and therefore the likely underfoot conditions, so I can eliminate some of the risk of a horse not running to its best form. Timing-wise I make these bets as soon as I can on the Monday after the decs have come out for Tuesday, and also after the obligatory last minute John Kettley check.
Last year I hit the same goalpost that most did. I had an accumulator comprising Vautour, Un des Sceaux, Faugheen, Annie Power, Vautour, and Peace and Co., and I was far from alone crying into my beer when Annie Power fell at the last hurdle. My £50 stake would have netted a very nice £5k.
I also had an £25ew Accumulator comprising Shaneshill, Vibrato Valtat, Glens Melody, Parlour Games, Southfield Theatre, Valseur Lido, and Value At Risk. It was let down by Vibrato Valtat and Value at Risk finishing just outside the frame. In retrospect I’d have been better playing a few accas with combinations of 4 as I’ve alluded to above. The same is true of the win acca. The reason I haven’t done so in the past is because I’ve limited my overall stakes for this kind of bet to £100 and put all of those I like in one big win acca, and one big ew acca. A mistake caused by habit and not thinking.
The bets I’ve been able to farm consistently are the ew Trixies and Yankees, which I think was the purpose of Bear’s question, so I’ll use my bets from last year’s Festival as the most recent and relevant example. The bets are limited to, and are individual to each day, so I can combine my advance selections in the non-handicaps with the handicaps for each day. I do them the night before and take the best available combination of odds with whichever bookmaker that is. Unfortunately I'm mostly limited to the shops these days, and don't risk losing my online accounts for trading which is another part of my overall betting strategy.
The following were the winning bets I had last year. There were plenty of losers too, so for balance I’ve included the stakes and number of bets, rather than list all the horses for every bet I had. My stake for each of these bets is £5 for each part of the combination, which is something else that I haven’t revised for a number of years, and may also do this year. I’ll also say before I write this next bit, for the benefit of some of the more abrasive characters on here who like to jump on this kind of stuff, please don’t waste your time accusing me of after-timing. I’m posting this because I’ve been asked to and wouldn't have otherwise done so. It’s not a work of fiction, and there are members here who either had similar vouchers in their hand, or whose company I keep each year at the Festival who will happily corroborate.
Day 1 last year gave me a nice start with an ew trixie comprising Shaneshill, The Druids Nephew, and Irish Cavalier and returned nearly £800. I also had a second one with L’Ami Serge instead of Shaneshill which returned just short of £600 for the double. The Druids Nephew was a nice one, but putting in Irish Cavalier' which I nearly didn't do, was the key to a nice return. I also had three further losing ew trixies.
Day 2 also had a £600 winning ew trixie with Aux Petit Soins, Zabana, and Special Tiara. I had three more bets (two ew trixies and an ew yankee) that went down.
Day 3 was also three ew trixies and an ew yankee that all went down.
Day 4 had a winning ew trixie with Road To Riches, On The Fringe, and Killultagh Vic netting around £400, and also an ew trixie that included Road To Riches and On The Fringe for a small return. Three more went down.
In addition to that I did a number of combination exactas and trifectas, none of which came in, but as a bet they've been good to me in the past. I’m happy to elaborate on my strategy there if anyone is interested or considering making those kind of bets.
Across the Festival I staked £530 on accas and multiples for a return just short of £2400. You could argue that I could have backed one 9/2 shot for the same stake and a similar return. But, given it’s part of an overall strategy, a challenge, seriously good fun, and I back one or two in every race anyway, I’d say it’s a pretty good approach to take. These bets made for a good Festival financially. They paid for it, and left money in my pocket. I also hit the bar a few times and it very easily could have been considerably better. Of course I could have lost £530 which I’m more than happy to lose because I stake at levels that my circumstances allow and I’m comfortable with. In total for the week my betting stakes, when I consider all my other win single and each way bets, and my exactas and trifectas, amounted to just over £1900 and my returns were just under £3500. I don’t do it all for the profit per-se, but if I consider accommodation, food, and alcohol, Cheltenham week made me an overall profit of around £600. I’ve had much better Festivals, but obviously I’ve had worse ones too, and last year wouldn't be untypical.
Lessons I’ve taken over the years have been not to try and be too greedy and to keep my discipline. I'm not chasing a certain amount, but I am betting a certain amount. Throwing in that extra horse to try and get higher returns can be the one that kills everything and turns a profit into a loss. Don’t be afraid to throw a horse in at bigger prices though. You fancy it for a reason. On the other hand if you’ve got too many big priced horses your strike rate will be poor or maybe non-existent. It’s a mentality thing. I keep good records, and as long as I know they’re profitable overall I don’t worry about having a bad day or a bad Festival. Generally though, but not exclusively, I look for horses in the top six to eight of the betting and they will dominate my bets. In percentage terms your chances of pulling these in is significantly higher, and the nature of the big fields in handicaps, or the proliferation of short priced favourites in the championship races offers a lot of bettable opportunities in the 4/1 – 12/1 range.
Whatever the results though there's no such thing as a bad Festival if you're there. Where else can you watch 26 World Cup Finals in four days. The betting is a sideshow and just another entertainment angle. And I'm certain that being there and treating it as the highlight of my holiday year is what helps me to stay relaxed about playing with a few grand each year. Being there, or at least looking forward to being there is really important. I was in Australia for five years fairly recently and missed four of the five Festivals when I was. The four I missed were four of the worst five Festivals I’ve had. I suspect it may have been because my head wasn’t into it in quite the same way. It’s also possible it’s just coincidence, but I wasn’t as obsessive about reading the form and pulling the stats and trends together as I usually am There’s also all those really good conversations you have with some really knowledgeable people when you’re there. I reckon if you just drop your efforts by a few percent your getting back close to pinsticker territory. Either way, if I lose they're not life changing sums, but I still work really hard at winning.
Writing this has been useful because it’s prompted me to look back at the races I’ve had good or reasonable strike rates with. Also it's highlighted those that have been a bit of graveyard, so I’m going to look at this a little bit deeper and I may revise my strategy accordingly. Of course what I do may not work for everyone, but I’ve found it to be a good approach for me and my mentality. It can be a little bit more time consuming working out your combinations, and forces you to look at the ew value as well as for a winner so keeps you in the goo habit over being thorough with every race. I usually have a win bet and an ew or place bet in each race, so it’s part of my usual routine and helps overall. I'd also say that there are those that are against ew betting. But I'd counter than and say there are more really good ew opportunity across the four days of the Festival than any other racemeeting because of the make up of each race, the way the books are formed across the year, and the sheer liquidity. It's therefore absolutely the prime opportunity for ew multiples, and they should be a consideration if you want an overall edge across the four days.
Anyway I hope ploughing through that lot has been useful to some. And as I said at the start, I’d be interested to learn from the successes others have had who may have slight variations or alternative approaches that have proven successful.
Accas at the Festival have been profitable overall for me, but I’ve only come up trumps three times in 20 years, and I don’t have a high strike rate. However, my returns far outstrip my stakes for the whole period. Overall I have staked £2000 on 40 bets but my returns are over £7000 from only 3 bets. You could argue that if it ain't broke don't fix it, but I intend to significantly increase my total stake this year and also the number of accas I do. I'm also going to reduce the number of horses I put in each and spread the risk. The potential returns for each bet will be lower, but the intention is to try to increase my strike-rate. So the annual £100 investment is going up to £300, and it’ll be split into 3 x 4 horse £50 win accumulators, and 3 x 4 horse £25ew accumulators.
In terms of approach, I never do my accumulators in advance. There’s an argument that says the best value is early, and that may well be true, but I much prefer to know that all my horses are running, are fit and well, and are unlikely to get switched to another race. No bets are wasted. Also I’ve seen all the available form, and I’ve got a pretty good idea what the weather is going to be like and therefore the likely underfoot conditions, so I can eliminate some of the risk of a horse not running to its best form. Timing-wise I make these bets as soon as I can on the Monday after the decs have come out for Tuesday, and also after the obligatory last minute John Kettley check.
Last year I hit the same goalpost that most did. I had an accumulator comprising Vautour, Un des Sceaux, Faugheen, Annie Power, Vautour, and Peace and Co., and I was far from alone crying into my beer when Annie Power fell at the last hurdle. My £50 stake would have netted a very nice £5k.
I also had an £25ew Accumulator comprising Shaneshill, Vibrato Valtat, Glens Melody, Parlour Games, Southfield Theatre, Valseur Lido, and Value At Risk. It was let down by Vibrato Valtat and Value at Risk finishing just outside the frame. In retrospect I’d have been better playing a few accas with combinations of 4 as I’ve alluded to above. The same is true of the win acca. The reason I haven’t done so in the past is because I’ve limited my overall stakes for this kind of bet to £100 and put all of those I like in one big win acca, and one big ew acca. A mistake caused by habit and not thinking.
The bets I’ve been able to farm consistently are the ew Trixies and Yankees, which I think was the purpose of Bear’s question, so I’ll use my bets from last year’s Festival as the most recent and relevant example. The bets are limited to, and are individual to each day, so I can combine my advance selections in the non-handicaps with the handicaps for each day. I do them the night before and take the best available combination of odds with whichever bookmaker that is. Unfortunately I'm mostly limited to the shops these days, and don't risk losing my online accounts for trading which is another part of my overall betting strategy.
The following were the winning bets I had last year. There were plenty of losers too, so for balance I’ve included the stakes and number of bets, rather than list all the horses for every bet I had. My stake for each of these bets is £5 for each part of the combination, which is something else that I haven’t revised for a number of years, and may also do this year. I’ll also say before I write this next bit, for the benefit of some of the more abrasive characters on here who like to jump on this kind of stuff, please don’t waste your time accusing me of after-timing. I’m posting this because I’ve been asked to and wouldn't have otherwise done so. It’s not a work of fiction, and there are members here who either had similar vouchers in their hand, or whose company I keep each year at the Festival who will happily corroborate.
Day 1 last year gave me a nice start with an ew trixie comprising Shaneshill, The Druids Nephew, and Irish Cavalier and returned nearly £800. I also had a second one with L’Ami Serge instead of Shaneshill which returned just short of £600 for the double. The Druids Nephew was a nice one, but putting in Irish Cavalier' which I nearly didn't do, was the key to a nice return. I also had three further losing ew trixies.
Day 2 also had a £600 winning ew trixie with Aux Petit Soins, Zabana, and Special Tiara. I had three more bets (two ew trixies and an ew yankee) that went down.
Day 3 was also three ew trixies and an ew yankee that all went down.
Day 4 had a winning ew trixie with Road To Riches, On The Fringe, and Killultagh Vic netting around £400, and also an ew trixie that included Road To Riches and On The Fringe for a small return. Three more went down.
In addition to that I did a number of combination exactas and trifectas, none of which came in, but as a bet they've been good to me in the past. I’m happy to elaborate on my strategy there if anyone is interested or considering making those kind of bets.
Across the Festival I staked £530 on accas and multiples for a return just short of £2400. You could argue that I could have backed one 9/2 shot for the same stake and a similar return. But, given it’s part of an overall strategy, a challenge, seriously good fun, and I back one or two in every race anyway, I’d say it’s a pretty good approach to take. These bets made for a good Festival financially. They paid for it, and left money in my pocket. I also hit the bar a few times and it very easily could have been considerably better. Of course I could have lost £530 which I’m more than happy to lose because I stake at levels that my circumstances allow and I’m comfortable with. In total for the week my betting stakes, when I consider all my other win single and each way bets, and my exactas and trifectas, amounted to just over £1900 and my returns were just under £3500. I don’t do it all for the profit per-se, but if I consider accommodation, food, and alcohol, Cheltenham week made me an overall profit of around £600. I’ve had much better Festivals, but obviously I’ve had worse ones too, and last year wouldn't be untypical.
Lessons I’ve taken over the years have been not to try and be too greedy and to keep my discipline. I'm not chasing a certain amount, but I am betting a certain amount. Throwing in that extra horse to try and get higher returns can be the one that kills everything and turns a profit into a loss. Don’t be afraid to throw a horse in at bigger prices though. You fancy it for a reason. On the other hand if you’ve got too many big priced horses your strike rate will be poor or maybe non-existent. It’s a mentality thing. I keep good records, and as long as I know they’re profitable overall I don’t worry about having a bad day or a bad Festival. Generally though, but not exclusively, I look for horses in the top six to eight of the betting and they will dominate my bets. In percentage terms your chances of pulling these in is significantly higher, and the nature of the big fields in handicaps, or the proliferation of short priced favourites in the championship races offers a lot of bettable opportunities in the 4/1 – 12/1 range.
Whatever the results though there's no such thing as a bad Festival if you're there. Where else can you watch 26 World Cup Finals in four days. The betting is a sideshow and just another entertainment angle. And I'm certain that being there and treating it as the highlight of my holiday year is what helps me to stay relaxed about playing with a few grand each year. Being there, or at least looking forward to being there is really important. I was in Australia for five years fairly recently and missed four of the five Festivals when I was. The four I missed were four of the worst five Festivals I’ve had. I suspect it may have been because my head wasn’t into it in quite the same way. It’s also possible it’s just coincidence, but I wasn’t as obsessive about reading the form and pulling the stats and trends together as I usually am There’s also all those really good conversations you have with some really knowledgeable people when you’re there. I reckon if you just drop your efforts by a few percent your getting back close to pinsticker territory. Either way, if I lose they're not life changing sums, but I still work really hard at winning.
Writing this has been useful because it’s prompted me to look back at the races I’ve had good or reasonable strike rates with. Also it's highlighted those that have been a bit of graveyard, so I’m going to look at this a little bit deeper and I may revise my strategy accordingly. Of course what I do may not work for everyone, but I’ve found it to be a good approach for me and my mentality. It can be a little bit more time consuming working out your combinations, and forces you to look at the ew value as well as for a winner so keeps you in the goo habit over being thorough with every race. I usually have a win bet and an ew or place bet in each race, so it’s part of my usual routine and helps overall. I'd also say that there are those that are against ew betting. But I'd counter than and say there are more really good ew opportunity across the four days of the Festival than any other racemeeting because of the make up of each race, the way the books are formed across the year, and the sheer liquidity. It's therefore absolutely the prime opportunity for ew multiples, and they should be a consideration if you want an overall edge across the four days.
Anyway I hope ploughing through that lot has been useful to some. And as I said at the start, I’d be interested to learn from the successes others have had who may have slight variations or alternative approaches that have proven successful.
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