I'd love to make it to Cheltenham one year, even if it's for just a day. At the moment though it's just not possible with a young family but it's on my bucket list for sure. I've just looked at the payouts for exactas and trifectas and I agree, it's definitely worth a crack at small stakes. Have you had more success in certain races than in others? I'd imagine you're more likely to hit in level weights races. Is the difference between tricasts and trifectas that one's with the bookies and the other's with the Tote?
Bets I've made so far are:-
E/W Acca
Tombstone Supreme 12/1
Vibrato Valtat Ryanair 20/1
Vyta Du Roc RSA 25/1
Garde La Victoire JLT 16/1
E/W Acca
Shantou Village AB 10/1
Vroum Vroum Mag Ryanair 8/1
Sizing John w/o Douvan 10/1
Buveur Dair Supreme 8/1
Banker Acca
Annie Power Mares 4/5
Yanworth Neptune 3/1
Un De Sceaux QM 4/6
Thistlecrack WH 7/4
Don Cossack GC 5/1
As for horses that go into hibernation until the festival - Ma Filleule is an absolute must in future e/w accas
I've been there with the young family. Heaven, high water, or even the wife has never managed to keep me away though. I even flew back from Oz a couple of years ago just for five days. Go once and you'll do the same. Also we're a pretty good bunch, and include many posters on here, so you'd be more than welcome to join us. We'd even protect you from Grassy's horse version of man-love.
Yes that's exactly the difference. Exactas and trifectas are the Tote, and forecasts and trifectas are the bookies. I've landed more in the non-handicaps, but my biggest payouts have been in handicaps, other than two big ones in the NH Chase in the days of big priced place horses which I used to have decent success with. I had a good run with the race for about ten years.
The nature of the race has changed in the last few years though and long gone are the 66/1 and 100/1 horses hitting the frame, and 33/1+ horses winning. For example I remember giving everyone I knew Another Rum at 40/1 and they all backed it because finding a big price winner or placer was an annual routine that had gone back a few years at that stage. I never for a second thought it would be beat. I was genuinely confident. It previously finished behind Point Barrow if my memory serves me well. Point Barrow was the best horse in the race, but Another Rum was bred to turn it around at an extreme trip. I'm pretty sure it was Hot Weld the year after. A few Jonjo horses have obliged, and I think it started with JP's Kayarwani in 1999 (spelling?), or I may be mistaken and mixed up races without checking. One of Martin Pipes was the following year who's name definitely escapes me. Anyway, staying is one thing, but staying as a novice is something else, and that was the angle. I was pretty thorough with profiling the race with improvement factored in for the trip based on breeding and what improvement could be expected for the step up. Also style of racing was a factor, as was the ground. All bets on this race were on the Tote for the bigger payouts. As an example Another Rum paid eighty odd pounds I think.
I've landed two big exactas in the race, and also a trifecta which is my biggest single payout on the bet. I'm pretty sure I was with a couple of people on here that day, although they're infrequent posters these days. I think you were posting on Neigh at the time as well so you may recall unless it was before your time? Anyway the purpose of that long-winded explanation is that I've had my successes in the races where I've generally had more success,a dn tend to limit the bet to those races. The Champion Chase would be another example of a good return when I had Forpaddytheplaster, Kalahari King and whatever the other one was. Sorry I'm writing on my Pad so I'm relying on a memory thats getting worse as you've probably gathered!
Anyway it's the classic example of things changing, which is a shame because it used to be a bit of a benefit race for me. Also it's a good reason for keeping records, otherwise you blindly do things you did previously and you miss it amongst everything else. It took me a couple of years to realise it with the NH Chase, but without my records I'd still blindly be doing what I was doing previously and throwing money away. The Martin Pipe is the one that seems to be the race that I have disproportional success with now. I think I have an angle with how horses are targeted at the race and their prior profile. It may be luck or coincidence but so far it's working and I've only missed the winner twice since it started. The first one, and once while I was away. I'm sure it'll change and I'd rather pick up the fact it does before I waste money.
Other good old races over the years have been the Champion Chase and The Supreme, but it's getting harder with Willie's odds on winners, meaning the recent payouts haven't been as good. No point in backing forecasts with an odds on winner, and the triccasts are also relatively skinny payouts and not easy to land.
As for your ew perms, there only three there that aren't for me. But with bets like those they're very much personal choice. Interestingly the rest I am interested in, but as I said previously I won't make a bet until the day because I'd rather sacrifice value to know my horses are running for me, and they have the right conditions.
Fingers crossed for you though. I always find that if I'm not winning the next best thing is that someone I know is. Best of luck, and to everyone else who has posted their selection.
