Notes from a preview evening at Exeter racecourse last Friday
Exeter Cheltenham Preview Evening – Friday, 26th February
Richard Hoiles (RH) (host), Harry Derham (HD), Philip Hobbs (PH), David Pipe (DP), Nick Schofield (NS) & Luke Tarr (LT) (Star Sports)
HD – Our [Paul Nicholls stable] main hopes are with are 4yos in the Triumph and Fred Winter. Last week we had 9 winners and the horses are looking well.
PH – We have very few horses for the Grade 1 conditions event which makes life very difficult.
DP – We don’t have many favourites, if any, but hopefully we can get some nice priced winners.
Day 1 Supreme
NS – [On Min] There’s no better jockey to help him settle than Ruby and he will probably ride him similar to Douvan. I think there is plenty of hype around Min though and we are hoping Nico can bring his ‘A’ game on day 1 with Altior and Vaniteux.
DP – The Supreme is the only race Moon Racer is entered in and I saw him loose school this morning and everything is going well and I’m still hopeful of getting there. It’s a mountain to climb but we are still in with a shout; much will depend on his schooling and not getting him fit, I’m not worried about that. If we can get him there in his best form then he could be the one to give Min a race
HD – I know Johnny Burke and he really likes Supasundae and he’s 14/1. I’d be keen to take Min on as he could easily get lit up.
RH – I’m also against Min as he’s too short for what he has done
Arkle
PH – [Garde La Victoire] He’s in the Arkle and the JLT and we will leave the decision until the last minute so we can wait and see what runs in what race. I think I’d rather take on Bristol De Mai than Douvan because we’ve beaten him. However, I think we are looking like placing so it will be a case off which race are we most likely to place in. If it came up soft we would definitely go for the Arkle.
DP – I think 2/5 about Douvan is value – he’s been to the Festival and done it before.
HD – I can’t see past Douvan
RH – I also think Douvan will run and the likely small field will allow him to be able to dictate.
Champion Hurdle [On where Annie Power should run]
NS – I’d run Annie Power in the Mares’ as she would be a good thing. She’s not an out-an-out Champion Hurdle horse in my eyes.
DP – They’ll go for the Champion Hurdle and that’s what I would do too.
PH – If she was a gelding I’d definitely go to the Champion but it depends what breeding interest they have.
HD – I remember her winning at Punchestown over 2m and Willie Mullins said afterwards that she’s not a 2m horse and wants further. She’s not had the ideal Champion Hurdle prep and she’s not a bomb proof jumper. All she’d have to do is canter around in the Mares’ race.
LT – I think Rich Ricci has wanted to run her in her in the Champion Hurdle the last two years. I think she is the biggest certainty to run in the Champion but whether she will or not is a different question.
[On the race]
HD – Nichols Canyon for me – he’s won six Grade 1 and I think 2m is his trip. He’s a very, very good horse and he’d be the one I’d want to ride. Old Guard is a lively outsider but that’s it; he’s not good enough to win it.
PH – I think Annie Power will win but I think 7/1 is each-way value on The New One if he’s back to his best. His performance at Haydock was much better than it looked and he jumped much straighter.
DP – I’d go for Annie Power.
NS – Old Guard has done nothing but improve and has a good each-way chance. You’ll see a much better horse than what we saw at Kempton.
OLBG Mares’ Hurdle
HD – [on Tara Point] It’s only a 50-50 chance she’ll make it. She’s extremely talented but everything would need to go right with her. She’s big and strong but very fragile and is difficult to train.
Ultima Handicap Chase
PH – Champagne West will run at Kempton on Saturday and the result will determine where he runs at the Festival. Sausalito Sunrise might run in the Ultima Handicap Chase but would be top weight. Our main hope in the race would be Kruzhlinin and going left-handed will suit much better and he could be the one to provide the Rooney’s with their first Cheltenham Festival winner.
DP – Un Temps Pour Tout will run over 3m but I’m not sure which race [also in the World Hurdle]. He hasn’t reached the same heights over fences as he did over hurdles and has a chance off 145 and I want to run him here but the owners might want to run in the World Hurlde.
HD – I think Southfield Theatre will run in this race. He’s been a bit disappointing this season but he has a good record at the Festival finishing second twice and he’s been trained for this race.
Other races
HD – [Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase] Bouvreuil is a horse we like a lot and the 2m4f trip will suit him.
LT – [National Hunt Chase] There’s been a lot of money for Native River.
Day 2
Neptune LT – It’s a race without any strength and depth and could cut up – 5 of the first 10 in the betting are unlikely to run and Yanworth is a long way clear.
DP – When Yanworth won at Cheltenham he cruised past Champers On Ice and Shantou Village, who are both good horses, and he will be very hard to beat.
HD – Alan King has trained some very good horses and he said he could be the best he’s trained and that’s good enough to me.
RSA
LT – No More Heroes is the clear favourite and there’s been solid support all winter. If Willie Mullins wasn’t around then Gordon Elliott would be champion trainer in Ireland and all he wants to do is talk about this horse. Blaklion is solid and is a nice each-way price and Seeyouatmidnight is also very good value and he would be about 5/1 if he was trained by someone else.
NS – Brian Hughes says better ground will suit Seeyouatmidnight so he’d be my pick
DP – I know Gordon [Elliott] likes No More Heroes a lot and he’s the one to beat but I’d go with Seeyouatmidnight; he’s solid and would be much shorter if he was trained by someone else.
PH – Blaklion perhaps but it’s an open race.
HD – Seeyouatmidnight has a good profile for this race.
Champion Chase
HD – [Dodging Bullets] I was bitterly disappointed with his run at Newbury and although the ground was soft, if you were going to win the Champion Chase you’d have to beat Top Gamble and we have a mountain to climb.
PH – Sprinter Sacre is nothing like the horse he was and Un De Sceaux looks a good thing. If you were looking for an each-way bet then Sire De Grugy.
DP – It’s great to see Sprinter Sacre running in the race and although he’s not back to his best, he is still very good. Un De Sceaux Is still the one to beat though.
NS – I can see Un De Sceaux leaving the others in his trail. Anyone who takes him on will ruin their own race.
Coral Cup
HD – Politologue is a really nice horse but on a mark of 140 doesn’t look well-handicapped and whether he’s man enough to win the Coral Cup I would have my doubts. I wouldn’t think he’s better than last year’s winner [Aux Ptits Soins] either. Baoulet Delaroque may have done his winning for this season having won three on the spin.
PH – We run Rock The Kasbah and he’s won two in a row so has gone up in the weights but the trip will suit and has a good each-way chance. He prefers soft ground.
DP – [Starchitect will hopefully come on for finishing 2nd in the Betfair and what also was encouraging was he made a bad mistake, but is more likely to run in the County and he should be competitive.
[Kings Palace] he runs in a Pertemps qualifier at Chepstow and has to finish in the first six to qualify. He stopped quickly in the Paddy Power and has had a wind op. He hasn’t been schooling well and he doesn’t like soft ground which is why he hasn’t run. He’ll improve for the run and is rated 5lb lower over hurdles and he could run well if he’s back to his best. I have a lot of belief in this horse but it does require a leap of faith because he has disappointed me a few times now.
X-Country
PH – Balthazar King is in good nick and we want good ground in March. His work at home as been as good as ever but he’s now got a dent on his side so whether that will affect his lung capacity I don’t know. It hasn’t stopped him at home and we’ve done plenty with him. Duke Of Lucca won’t run this season.
HD – Sire Collonges is in good form and has been trained for the race but I doubt he’ll be good enough but will run his race.
Fred Winter
HD – Diego du Charmil is a horse we like and his handicap mark is ‘fine’. Frodon will probably run in the Triumph.
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
PH – We have Westend Story in this and he’s unbeaten in bumpers but has beaten moderate opposition very easily.
DP – Ballyandy is favourite and has good form but Sue Gardner’s Coeur Blimey beat him at Ascot and is a bigger price.
LT – High Bridge could be one at 25/1 – 28/1. John Ferguson trained New Year’s Eve to finish 2nd in the race and he could be a lively outsider if he runs.
Thursday JLT
LT – One horse which has been well-backed is Three Musketeers (14/1 from 25/1) and definitely goes for this race. I can see Bristol De Mai finding one horse to good and it’s a good race for bookmakers. I’m going to side with Outlander as I think he’s a natural over fences.
PH – I’m favouring this race for Garde La Victoire but we will wait and see what runs.
HD – As De Mee runs in this but he was well stuffed by Bristol De Mai and I can’t see him winning.
DP – Bristol De Mai will take a lot of beating for me. He want soft ground and with the race being on the Thursday, if it hasn’t rained by then they will have watered so the ground will be dead and he’ll get his ground.
NS – Not sure what Bristol De Mai has beaten and I like Mr Hobbs’s horse Garde La Victoire; I think he’ll stay and is a solid jumper – I can see him beating Bristol De Mai.
Ryanair
HD – We run Vibrato Valtat and he’s an extremely likeable horse. I think the 2m4f trip will suit and he’s in really good order. The race could cut up but he could find one or two too good. I’d fancy Al Ferof if it was first time out but I can’t see him winning the race.
DP – Dynaste ran well at Ascot last time out and whilst he’s not getting any younger I’m hopeful there are a few more good days in him yet. He’s better left-handed and the better ground and wind op make him a lively outsider at big odds; he’s in great form at home and is a pleasure to have in the yard.
NS – [Al Ferof] I don’t think he’s improved for Dan [Skelton] and it would have to be a bad Ryanair if he won.
World Hurdle
LT – Thistlecrack keeps improving and looked imperious at Cheltenham last time out and although I always get this horse wrong, I do fancy him for this race. Think Thistlecrack and Alpha Des Obeaux are well clear. Saphir Du Rheu and Aux Ptits Soins are viable each-way options and whichever one Sam rides will shorten up considerably.
HD – Nick Schofield is one of the best judges and he loves Aux Ptits Soins but he likes Saphir Du Rheu for this race. APS has had lots of problems and faces an impossible task on the face of it but he’s one of the best horses I’ve ever sat on.
RH – I think the current 16/1 on offer for Saphir Du Rheu is good value – he will certainly trade shorter nearer the time.
NS – I don’t think even Paul knows which one has the best chance. They are both good enough but they have more to prove than Thistlecrack, who is very solid.
DP – Thistlecrack is the one they all have to beat but Ditcheat are quietly confident.
Other races
DP – La Vaticane is entered everywhere and is a very nice horse. We might try some sort of headgear but she is down the weights and may not get in.
RH – John’s Spirit in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate. They’ve done very well to get his handicap mark down and he’s back to a workable mark. He’s been running on softer ground than ideal and I’d be very surprised if he was still 20/1 if he lined up on good ground on the day.
NS – Art Mauresque could join John’s Spirit in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate; on better ground he should be bang there.
Kim Muir
RH – Our Father has been well-backed today for Gordon Elliott
DP – Gordon [Elliott] said Our Father is going very well and first time out is the time to catch him. Katkeau could run and the step up in trip will suit; we ran him over 2m3f last time to help brush his jumping up. Standing Ovation could sneak in and these would be my two in the race.
LT – The money coming for Our Father speaks volumes; there has been significant money for him.
Pertemps PH – [If In Doubt] He’s a much better horse over hurdles and in my opinion he needs 3m plus and he will hopefully have a good chance.
Triumph
HD – [Connetable] We weren’t surprised when he won at Sandown and I like him; he’s very tough and very hard and he would be my pick for the Triumph. Of all our 4yos however I like Clan Des Obeaux; I love him but he might not be hard enough, but I expect him to be the best of these in the future.
LT – Ivanovich Gorbatov has to be the worse priced runner at the Festival and I don’t understand how he is this short – I look forward to laying him on the day.
Albert Bartlett
LT – If I could have any horse in training in the UK it would be Barters Hill; he keeps on winning and the horses he beats keep coming out and winning too. I think he’s the nuts and I don’t think there’s a lot behind him – I love the horse and I want to back him and I want him to win.
DP – Champers On Ice represents each-way value and the step up to3m will suit, however we have been beaten by Shantou Village already.
Gold Cup
LT – It’s a brilliant, brilliant race. If I had to pick one it would be Cue Card because he has the speed and class. I’d also say Don Poli; he’s a big boat but he stays forever.
DP – I think Don Cossack is very good but he’s not a Gold Cup winner to me. I’ve always like Djakadam so it’s him or Cue Card for me.
PH – I don’t think Cue Card will win because I still don’t think he’s a thorough stayer, which Don Cossack is and he’s my selection. Smad Place each-way as well.
HD – I’m going to say something controversial here but I’m not sure Bryan Cooper gets on with Don Cossack – I’m not criticising Bryan Cooper because he’s a brilliant jockey but the horses record without him his better. I think whatever Ruby rides will win and I think he’ll ride Vautour.
County Hurdle
HD – I like Some Plan; he’s talented and he’s travelled well to two out the last twice and not jumped. Good ground is key and if they go flat out it will suit him and I love it when Paul trains one for a race.
PH – We have Wait For Me and after three runs over hurdles he is rated 131 and there could be lot of improvement to come for him, but he needs to jump and settle better. The could be lots more improvement to come on better ground too. The quicker they go might help as they’ve been going slow in his races to date.
Best Bets of the meeting
LT – Altior and Barters Hill
HD – Aux Ptit Soins and Qualando (Martin Pipe)
PH – Balthazar King [if it’s good ground]
RH – John’s Spirit
DP – Doctor Harper [whichever race he runs in]
NS – Connetable (e/w)