Cheltenham Stats Question

TheBear said:
Maybe I'm inefficient in going through the card but if I was to study the form of every runner then I'd be breaching that hourly rate rule that Slim alludes to. I can't bring myself to look at the handicaps until the day before because it would just take me so long to do it and I'm not really losing any value. The prices are normally best on the morning of the race with the extra places on offer.

I apply my method and come up with a shortlist without even looking at the market. If I then see a strong favourite which I'd ruled out through trends/stats early I may take a 2nd look but unless I find something compelling I feel that by applying that method my shortlist has a good chance of having found value.

What isn't value is hanging onto the coattails of these talking horses such as The Storyteller, Tombstone et al.
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My approach to that is to ignore all racing other than the Festival when the handicaps come out. I then do a race a day cutting off at horse 65 which is pretty much the equivalent of doing one card. I then produce myself a list of qualifiers and rate them. When the five day decs come out I'll lose some, and I'll lose some more at final decs. I then have a manageable shortlist to work the form from and to interpret in the context of the race the night before.
 
Maruco said:
I disagree with Bear as I would never use them to quickly eliminate a third of the field.
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That was a little flippant on my part. I don't blindly eliminate a third of the field, but a combination of statistical negatives against a particular runner will cross them off the list without a 2nd look.

The stats being built into the price is an interesting one. Lets take one of the most well known ones, non claiming amateurs in the Kim Muir. Which has more value, to back every runner with a non claiming amateur or to back all of the others?

One of my notes against this race is: 'Ignore the claiming amateurs' but of course whatever I'm left with is a shorter price purely because of who is sat on their back.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I suppose it's a matter of taste.

If I'm beat, I want it to be because I missed something in the form, the I've subsequently identified. That's a useful lesson I can take away
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An even better lesson can be understanding why something was sent off 7.6 on Betfair but was freely available at 12/1 in the morning. Regardless of the result you also need to work out why that happened if you want to be a successful bettor.
 
I think you know by know I'm far from one dimensional in my betting strategy Slim. But the Festival is very different than a run of the mill weekday card. And also to some extent a normal Saturday.

Value is created by field sizes. I'm certainly not looking to back 6/1 favourites in a 24 runner field. If it's a genuine favourite in my opinion I'm looking for each way alternatives with a proportional stake on the favourite to cover my bets. If it's not I'm happy that it's making a price for something else.

Each way doubles, trebles, and even four folds are also,a large part of the game for me as you know.

There's more than one interpretation of value if you have betting strategies to achieve profits. And for me the key is not be one dimensional. Two 24 runner handicaps can be framed and priced very much the same on paper. But the opportunity is very different. A good example would be comparing the Kim Muir to the Ultima. The markets will end up looking very similar, but the two races will be like chalk and cheese in terms of how many horses can genuinely win.
 
The final thing from me tonight relates to staking. My bet sizes are based on a combination of confidence and race type.

With regards race type is it more likely that I have the winner of the Fred Winter or the Bumper on my ticket, or is it more likely to be in the Ultima or the Kim Muir?

I reckon most punters bet pretty much the same on every horse regardless which is complete madness.
 
Sorry. One final, final thing in response to Max. Top of the list is trainer form. Both 14 day and 7 day stats based on the results produced for all horses in the first four in the market over the period, based on +\- % against their related chance. I ignore the RP stats which are totally misleading. I also do this again after first days card and compare.
 
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That is an excellent point and one I hadn't previously considered. There has always been a disparity between how much I bet on graded races compared to handicaps but I've never considered differing my bet size for the support races unless I particularly fancied one.


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I take that approach to all the races Bear. In fact I'm so bloody anal I even apply statistics to my previous success rates in each race! :blink:
 
Maruco said:
The Pertemps is historically my poorest race Max. In fact I've been eliminating stats this year rather than adding to them. The following are my current aide memoirs:

Don't usually win their qualifier. Probably 2nd, 3rd, or poss 4th, unless a cosy 5th or 6th. Must watch all qualifiers for quiet qualifying rides
The 2 from 19 that did win there qualifier ran in Feb qualifiers

If Irish came from Leopardstown qualifier. Usually a placed horse there will place here

Last six rated between 138 and 148 but overall quality is improving so cap out at 150

The market indicates to Ignore 7 yo and under at single figure prices

2 x 6yo recently, but 10 and above terrible

5yo terrible record unless Pipe which do place

If full range hcap no more than 11st 2lb. Where is the cut off likely to be this year, and where should the top weight consideration be?

Last time winners do well which suggests they may have needed to win to be sure of a run. Also maybe why the weight stat is important

JP runners do very well and seriously punch above there numbers

3 x selections. One on progressive form, one on stats, one that appears to have been hidden and running for a mark for at least 12 months
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Here is an interesting stat for the Pertemps - Thought I would spend an hour looking at the results for the last 4 years -

The sire's sire is Sadler's Wells - I've put up 6 places in case of bookie offers?

2013 Hollywell 25/1 - Captain Sunshine 11/1 - Jetson 10/1 - Shutthefrontdoor 6/1 - Berties Dream 33/1 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th - 1 unpl - 1 PU - Going g/soft

2014 Fingal Bay 9/2 - Southfield Theatre 20/1 1st & 2nd - Jetson 11/1 5th - On The Bridge 16/1 6th - 4 unpl - 1 faller - going good

2015 - 6 runners all unplaced

2016 Mall Dini won 14/1 - Our Kaempfer 9/1 5th - Rathpatrick 40/1 6th - 5 unplaced

2017 Qualifiers - Aubusson - Jury Duty - El Bandit - Golden Doyen - Sutton Manor - Splash Of Ginge - Rocklander - Fingal Bay - Electric Concorde - Arctic Gold - For Good Measure - Clondaw Cian - Solstice Star - Billy's Hope - Rolling Maul - Have narrowed it down to 16 possibles - just have to work out who will get in and study those left :lol:
 
swedish chef said:
Here is an interesting stat for the Pertemps - Thought I would spend an hour looking at the results for the last 4 years -

The sire's sire is Sadler's Wells - I've put up 6 places in case of bookie offers?

2013 Hollywell 25/1 - Captain Sunshine 11/1 - Jetson 10/1 - Shutthefrontdoor 6/1 - Berties Dream 33/1 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th - 1 unpl - 1 PU - Going g/soft

2014 Fingal Bay 9/2 - Southfield Theatre 20/1 1st & 2nd - Jetson 11/1 5th - On The Bridge 16/1 6th - 4 unpl - 1 faller - going good

2015 - 6 runners all unplaced

2016 Mall Dini won 14/1 - Our Kaempfer 9/1 5th - Rathpatrick 40/1 6th - 5 unplaced

2017 Qualifiers - Aubusson - Jury Duty - El Bandit - Golden Doyen - Sutton Manor - Splash Of Ginge - Rocklander - Fingal Bay - Electric Concorde - Arctic Gold - For Good Measure - Clondaw Cian - Solstice Star - Billy's Hope - Rolling Maul - Have narrowed it down to 16 possibles - just have to work out who will get in and study those left :lol:
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Applying another stat the sire is King's Theatre - Oscar - Gold Well or Milan & age restriction to 6,7 & 8yo's- Qualifiers - El Bandit - Sutton Manor - Rocklander - Electric Concorde - Arctic Gold - For Good Measure - Clondaw Cian - Billy's Hope = 8 possibles

5 have this race as their only entry - Sutton Manor - Arctic Gold - For Good Measure - Clondaw Cian - Billy's Hope (could be balloted out) = 4 possibles

After watching the videos & studying form - Selection Clondaw Cian e/way 25/1 :ninja::D https://soundcloud.com/sportinglife/suzy-smith-clondaw-cian
 
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