Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Keen to hear what people think with a month to go before the Festival, as it can often help identify horses that I may have overlooked. FWIW, this is where I am right now.
Supreme
Have fancy prices about Il Etait Temps (so my judgement is possibly clouded), but I thought it was an excellent run at the DRF regardless. He beat all the right horses (three of them undefeated), travelled like a dream, and ran strongly through the line; suggesting to me that the test of the Supreme would be right up his street. Racing's talking-heads don't seem particularly enamoured of the performance - generally writing it off as something of a fluke/shock - though the market has obviously taken a different view. That said, my suspicion is that he'll be one they'll want to oppose, and reckon he'll be a bigger price on the day. Regardless, I'm happy to go to war with him. He looks an improved horse with another year on his back, and the hood added.
Arkle
I was really taken with El Fabiolo's run, though once you remove the madcap that is Dysart Dynamo from the equation, he's really beaten a bunch of Turners horses, and the form is possibly not quite as good as it seems at face value. I still think Jonbon is the one to be with in this race, and I am looking for a bloodless display at Warwick this weekend to boost that confidence further.
Champion Hurdle
With apologies to An Capall and Granger, Constitution Hill just wins, and places himself amongst the all-time great hurdlers.
Mares Hurdle
Very interesting heat, and whilst the front two in the market are very smart, I like Love Envoi in this. She has age on her side, and I like her head-down-no-nonsense approach to racing. She's short-enough in the market, but continues on an upward curve, whereas Epatante and Honeysuckle are now perhaps starting to fall back into the others a bit. Brandy Love's absence a bit of a concern for me.
NH Chase
Looks made for Gaillard Du Mesnil (who will be my main bet), but I'm drawn to Amirite as one who could run into the places at a big price.
Ballymore Hurdle
I want to be against Hermes Allen, for no better reason than the form in UK novice hurdles hasn't proven nearly so strong as that in Irish novice hurdles. Nicholls recent Festival record also has to be taken into account, I think. From those at the head of the market, I would be favouring the more-proven ability of Good Land over Impaire Et Passe, and I'm still a little wary of Gaelic Warrior's level, for all that he dotted-up in the DRF handicap. If there is an angle to any UK runner, it might come in the shape of Rare Edition who goes in the Sidney Bank later today, over two-and-a-half. If he won that, and Rubaud also franked his form in the Betfair, he might be for having onside each-way.
Broadway Chase
If there's been anything not to like about Gerri Colombe to-date, I haven't seen it - and I don't really understand connections apparent coolness about running here. The Real Whacker is a terrific animal, but I question whether he has the class for this (personally, I'd run him in the Ultima), and I can see Thyme Hill's jumping fall apart in a really competitive race like this. You can take-out practically eight of the next ten in the betting, as they won't go (NH Chase or Turners for most of them, and I have a suspicion there will be a late switch to the Stayers for Sir Gerhard), which leaves the race at Gerri Colombe's mercy, imo. He's a strong favourite for this and will be hard to beat, with further improvement expected over 3m+.
Champion Chase
A puzzler. It's very hard to knock Editeur Du Gite, but I can see both Edwardstone and Energumene turning the Clarence House form around, under slightly more judicious rides. Of that pair, I think I might actually side with Edwardstone, as I have a niggling doubt as to whether Cheltenham is truly Energumene's track (every time I watch his Championship Chase back, Funambule Sivola seems to inch a little closer).
Turners Chase
A bit like Gerri Colombe, it's hard to spot any flaws in Mighty Potter, though I don't have a bean on him. The once small concern I would have is that he was PU'd in the Supreme last season - though given who won that race, it's perhaps understandable if he's been an intermediate-trip horse all along. That aside, he looks all over the winner for me.
Stayers Hurdle
This race is a shi*tshow, with question marks against everything. If Blazing Khal were to run (and then run well) in the Boyne this weekend, he would be a serious player, but I want to be against both Teahupoo and HBTL - for reasons I'm not entirely sure about. Again, I've a small inkling this is where Sir Gerhard might end-up, and have had a nibble at him in the Betfair market - though even if he does show, I wouldn't be at all confident. The Boyne will hopefully help inform the race a little more (Saint Sam of mild interest), but I couldn't really recommend anything. I think it's probably a race for small stakes and moving on.
Ryanair Chase
I can't have Allaho, despite recent positive reports, but I can have Shishkin, despite recent negative reports. Am I mad? Probably. For all that he's clearly top-class, I kind of feel Allaho's wide-margin win was down to an excellent piece of race-riding/blatant larceny by Rachel last season, and I'm not sure he can repeat it, even if he does turn-up in A1 condition. I still have faith that a fully-formed Shishkin is an absolute monster of a horse, and think this increase in trip is something he has been crying out for - probably since before his Supreme win, to be honest. He will hopefully show his true colours at Ascot next weekend, otherwise it's back to the drawing-board.
Triumph Hurdle
Hard to have a strong opinion given the race will cut-up to buggery due to the Fred Winter. Blood Destiny is really the only one that doesn't have any sort of blemish on his record (Lossiemouth unlucky, to be fair), and I'd be with him for the moment.
Albert Bartlett
Willie seems to have unlocked this race a little bit; winning with two very-well fancied horses in Monkfish and The Nice Guy in recent years, after it developed a bit of a reputation as a no-hopers benefit. That being the case, Embassy Garden merits maximum respect, and strikes me as a fair price at 6/1 right now.
Gold Cup
Hard to get away from Galopin Des Champs in this; though he took a few strides more than I expected, to assert in what wasn't a great renewal of the Irish Gold Cup. Finding one to beat him is tricky though. Conflated is currently 12/1, and now that they've established that he's a stayer, I think he is probably just about the best option against the fave at a decent each-way price. I can't have Bravemansgame at this course, and Stattler and Noble Yeats strike me as just a bit too slow - though could threaten the Gigginstown horse for the places.
If I've liked or recommended any horses who are injured, dead or otherwise not going to run, it's a measure of how shabby my research is.
Supreme
Have fancy prices about Il Etait Temps (so my judgement is possibly clouded), but I thought it was an excellent run at the DRF regardless. He beat all the right horses (three of them undefeated), travelled like a dream, and ran strongly through the line; suggesting to me that the test of the Supreme would be right up his street. Racing's talking-heads don't seem particularly enamoured of the performance - generally writing it off as something of a fluke/shock - though the market has obviously taken a different view. That said, my suspicion is that he'll be one they'll want to oppose, and reckon he'll be a bigger price on the day. Regardless, I'm happy to go to war with him. He looks an improved horse with another year on his back, and the hood added.
Arkle
I was really taken with El Fabiolo's run, though once you remove the madcap that is Dysart Dynamo from the equation, he's really beaten a bunch of Turners horses, and the form is possibly not quite as good as it seems at face value. I still think Jonbon is the one to be with in this race, and I am looking for a bloodless display at Warwick this weekend to boost that confidence further.
Champion Hurdle
With apologies to An Capall and Granger, Constitution Hill just wins, and places himself amongst the all-time great hurdlers.
Mares Hurdle
Very interesting heat, and whilst the front two in the market are very smart, I like Love Envoi in this. She has age on her side, and I like her head-down-no-nonsense approach to racing. She's short-enough in the market, but continues on an upward curve, whereas Epatante and Honeysuckle are now perhaps starting to fall back into the others a bit. Brandy Love's absence a bit of a concern for me.
NH Chase
Looks made for Gaillard Du Mesnil (who will be my main bet), but I'm drawn to Amirite as one who could run into the places at a big price.
Ballymore Hurdle
I want to be against Hermes Allen, for no better reason than the form in UK novice hurdles hasn't proven nearly so strong as that in Irish novice hurdles. Nicholls recent Festival record also has to be taken into account, I think. From those at the head of the market, I would be favouring the more-proven ability of Good Land over Impaire Et Passe, and I'm still a little wary of Gaelic Warrior's level, for all that he dotted-up in the DRF handicap. If there is an angle to any UK runner, it might come in the shape of Rare Edition who goes in the Sidney Bank later today, over two-and-a-half. If he won that, and Rubaud also franked his form in the Betfair, he might be for having onside each-way.
Broadway Chase
If there's been anything not to like about Gerri Colombe to-date, I haven't seen it - and I don't really understand connections apparent coolness about running here. The Real Whacker is a terrific animal, but I question whether he has the class for this (personally, I'd run him in the Ultima), and I can see Thyme Hill's jumping fall apart in a really competitive race like this. You can take-out practically eight of the next ten in the betting, as they won't go (NH Chase or Turners for most of them, and I have a suspicion there will be a late switch to the Stayers for Sir Gerhard), which leaves the race at Gerri Colombe's mercy, imo. He's a strong favourite for this and will be hard to beat, with further improvement expected over 3m+.
Champion Chase
A puzzler. It's very hard to knock Editeur Du Gite, but I can see both Edwardstone and Energumene turning the Clarence House form around, under slightly more judicious rides. Of that pair, I think I might actually side with Edwardstone, as I have a niggling doubt as to whether Cheltenham is truly Energumene's track (every time I watch his Championship Chase back, Funambule Sivola seems to inch a little closer).
Turners Chase
A bit like Gerri Colombe, it's hard to spot any flaws in Mighty Potter, though I don't have a bean on him. The once small concern I would have is that he was PU'd in the Supreme last season - though given who won that race, it's perhaps understandable if he's been an intermediate-trip horse all along. That aside, he looks all over the winner for me.
Stayers Hurdle
This race is a shi*tshow, with question marks against everything. If Blazing Khal were to run (and then run well) in the Boyne this weekend, he would be a serious player, but I want to be against both Teahupoo and HBTL - for reasons I'm not entirely sure about. Again, I've a small inkling this is where Sir Gerhard might end-up, and have had a nibble at him in the Betfair market - though even if he does show, I wouldn't be at all confident. The Boyne will hopefully help inform the race a little more (Saint Sam of mild interest), but I couldn't really recommend anything. I think it's probably a race for small stakes and moving on.
Ryanair Chase
I can't have Allaho, despite recent positive reports, but I can have Shishkin, despite recent negative reports. Am I mad? Probably. For all that he's clearly top-class, I kind of feel Allaho's wide-margin win was down to an excellent piece of race-riding/blatant larceny by Rachel last season, and I'm not sure he can repeat it, even if he does turn-up in A1 condition. I still have faith that a fully-formed Shishkin is an absolute monster of a horse, and think this increase in trip is something he has been crying out for - probably since before his Supreme win, to be honest. He will hopefully show his true colours at Ascot next weekend, otherwise it's back to the drawing-board.
Triumph Hurdle
Hard to have a strong opinion given the race will cut-up to buggery due to the Fred Winter. Blood Destiny is really the only one that doesn't have any sort of blemish on his record (Lossiemouth unlucky, to be fair), and I'd be with him for the moment.
Albert Bartlett
Willie seems to have unlocked this race a little bit; winning with two very-well fancied horses in Monkfish and The Nice Guy in recent years, after it developed a bit of a reputation as a no-hopers benefit. That being the case, Embassy Garden merits maximum respect, and strikes me as a fair price at 6/1 right now.
Gold Cup
Hard to get away from Galopin Des Champs in this; though he took a few strides more than I expected, to assert in what wasn't a great renewal of the Irish Gold Cup. Finding one to beat him is tricky though. Conflated is currently 12/1, and now that they've established that he's a stayer, I think he is probably just about the best option against the fave at a decent each-way price. I can't have Bravemansgame at this course, and Stattler and Noble Yeats strike me as just a bit too slow - though could threaten the Gigginstown horse for the places.
If I've liked or recommended any horses who are injured, dead or otherwise not going to run, it's a measure of how shabby my research is.
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