Cheltenham Thoughts - 1 month out

Walking On Air very impressive at Exeter today.
That the Pertemps Qualifier had only 7 runners shows people are getting soft on both sides of the water.
Not exposed yet and ran off 133 today, Nicky doing a Charles Byrnes ?
 
edgt said:
Walking On Air very impressive at Exeter today.
That the Pertemps Qualifier had only 7 runners shows people are getting soft on both sides of the water.
Not exposed yet and ran off 133 today, Nicky doing a Charles Byrnes ?
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Nicky has a couple of darts for this.
 
Allaho out of the race - abdominal bleed apparently. Powers have re-opened their Ryanair market, and he isn't quoted.
 
From Sporting Life

Dual Ryanair Chase hero Allaho will not bid for a hat-trick at next month’s Cheltenham Festival after suffering an abdominal bleed.
The Willie Mullins-trained nine-year-old was a brilliant winner of the Ryanair in 2021 under Rachael Blackmore and successfully defended his crown with a sublime front-running performance last season in the hands of Paul Townend.
He stepped up to three miles to win the Punchestown Gold Cup the following month, but has not been seen in competitive action since, with an autumn setback ruling out a possible tilt at the King George VI Chase at Kempton Boxing Day.
Hopes were high that Allaho would return to action at the Festival – but Chris Richardson, managing director for owners Cheveley Park Stud, has confirmed he will miss the showpiece meeting after suffering a further setback.


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This Cheltenham just gets better and better from a betting point of view

With the exception of CH in the CH no long odds on shots

Maybe Delta Work and Mighty Potter will go slightly odds on but i can't think of many others
 
wilsonl said:
Once again, how bad is this for the sport that he was being traded at those prices before the news broke.
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Don't think it's a major issue in this particular case, Lee. I was keeping a close eye on the market, and there wasn't much traded at all, until he was confirmed as out. Someone is always going to hear something (and try to make use of it), before the press have a chance to get the news out there, and there couldn't have been much more than 45 minutes between the exchange drift starting, and Allaho being confirmed as a goner.

Maybe I'm making too much light of it, but I always think it's a bit of an 'occupational hazard' when this happens. Anyone paying attention would have been reticent to hit the Back button, I figure.
 
All bets placed/taken within 12 hours of the announcment should be void.......simple as.

These ******* sharks need to be brought to task
 
Tanlic said:
All bets placed/taken within 12 hours of the announcment should be void.......simple as.

These ******* sharks need to be brought to task
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What if you'd taken the view that - with Fakir, Shishkin and Pic D'Orhy entered at Ascot this weekend - all were live runners against the favourite in the Ryanair, and decided this morning (pre-drift) to lay Allaho.......without having any inside knowledge of this bleeding issue? You'd effectively be penalised for having an opinion on the race, and whether he would realistically a) make it to the tape, and b) be able to operate at the top of his form even if he did.

I appreciate that a degree of pre-announcement chiselling can go on when a big horse misses a race, but the volumes traded in the hour before he was pulled amounted to next-to-nothing. And besides, anyone taking the 3s and 4s available before the announcement (it never got any bigger as far as I could tell), knew they were backing a horse that hadn't run all season, and wasn't guaranteed to make the Festival. It's caveat emptor, imo.

Maybe there's a compromise to be had? Perhaps bets could be voided from the time the first high-street operator has pulled their market? That would seem a better solution to me.
 
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I reckon the handicap entries should be out in a week or so. Feb 19th from memory or thereabouts is the date they are released.
 
I didn’t watch the Hunter Chase at Haydock today but it was won by a really, really lovely horse called Famous Clermont. I have long since been a fan of this horse and he was a bit tricky as a youngster. But the trainer and jockey (Chris Barber and Will Biddick) have just quietly brought him along. Initially they weren’t going to go to the Festival as they thought it might possibly be a year too soon. They took him home after his last run and did some extensive schooling over show jumps (Wills wife is Harriet Nuttall who is a top showjumper) and he looked very sharp and it showed today apparently. So they have now reformed their opinion and he will go to the Festival after all. It doesn’t look the strongest at the moment.
 
From the RP

Famous Clermont, who is Britain's shortest-priced contender for the St James's Place Festival Hunters' Chase after bolting up at Haydock on Saturday, looks set to miss Cheltenham.

He is quoted at no bigger than 8-1 for next month's contest after putting up an improved display of jumping and coming home an 18-length winner under Will Biddick, making it three victories from four starts over fences.

But trainer Chris Barber said on Sunday: "We've got to have a chat with the owners and make a decision but I think we're probably going to swerve Cheltenham and maybe the plan will be to go to Aintree.

"That's a flat track and two miles five, they go a nice gallop and you can get into more of a rhythm. As Will said, you can flick through the fences at Aintree, whereas at Cheltenham if you don't get into a rhythm and don't jump you can be in trouble.

"It's a stiff test round there, it's three miles two and if the ground comes up soft it's a slog. He's a very strong-travelling horse and two miles five round Aintree would suit him a lot better."

Biddick, who trained Porlock Bay to win the Cheltenham showpiece in 2021 when amateurs were barred from riding at the festival due to pandemic restrictions, added: "A lot of critics and pundits in the point-to-point and hunter chase scene have been telling us where we should be going with him, but he hasn't been the easiest horse to train and get right so we're not going to go and blow it now.

"Chris has been very patient with him. He's only eight and we'll do what we think is right for the horse. We're not going to do what people are telling us to do, we're going to do what's right for the horse."

Biddick believes work with his father-in-law, former jockey Rupert Nuttall, has made all the difference to Famous Clermont

"My wife is an international showjumper and Chris brought him over to her father Rupert's place to do pole work, trying to get him to use himself a bit," he said. "And we changed tactics, we normally drop him out the back and take our time but we decided to give him a bit more daylight and ride him a bit more prominently.

"Tweaking two things got a better performance from the horse. He's always had the engine but his head doesn't engage with his feet all the time."

Famous Clermont was a £5,000 buy who gave Barber his first winner under rules at Exeter last year, and the trainer said: "We're very lucky to have a horse like him.

"I loved him when I saw him at the sales, I thought he was a big, raw horse that maybe needed a bit of time and as it's transpired that's exactly what he did need."


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Brandy Love declared for Wednesday. I want to bet her for the Mares but think I’ll wait until after that race as it’s going right handed again so has to be a chance she’ll be a bigger price after the race because she’s also conceding the G1 penalty.
 
Extract from Simon Rowlands take on Shiskin on ATR today:

…..More importantly, Shishkin’s overall time shapes up well against other chases on Saturday’s Ascot card, though those other chases were both at the longer distance of about three miles.
Shishkin recorded 14.905s per furlong (30.2 mph) on average, while the Reynoldstown Chase winner Oscar Elite managed 15.357 s/f (29.3 mph) and the big handicap winner Cap Du Nord posted 15.319 s/f (29.4 mph).
Compared to my standard times, after factoring in distance amendments, the last two put up useful time performances (worth ratings of 136 and 132 respectively), while Shishkin put in a top-class one (176).
That is the best single performance by a chaser this season, on either side of the Irish Sea, and inferior only to Shishkin’s stable-companion Constitution Hill among jumpers overall. It is also the equal of Shishkin’s last-gasp defeat of Energumene in the Clarence House Chase on this course 13 months ago…….
 
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jinnyj said:
I didn’t watch the Hunter Chase at Haydock today but it was won by a really, really lovely horse called Famous Clermont. I have long since been a fan of this horse and he was a bit tricky as a youngster. But the trainer and jockey (Chris Barber and Will Biddick) have just quietly brought him along. Initially they weren’t going to go to the Festival as they thought it might possibly be a year too soon. They took him home after his last run and did some extensive schooling over show jumps (Wills wife is Harriet Nuttall who is a top showjumper) and he looked very sharp and it showed today apparently. So they have now reformed their opinion and he will go to the Festival after all. It doesn’t look the strongest at the moment.
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Ever since he ran out in a maiden hurdle in Wincanton I've thought he's one to be wary of. He's doing very well in fairness but I'll be taking him on when comes up against anything remotely decent.
 
Nicky in the Sporting Life today saying that it would be the best thing to give each a chance of winning if Epatante goes Mares and Marie's Rock goes Stayers.

Here's hoping as I have a 16/1 voucher for Marie's Rock in the Stayers.
 
Join the club :0) I have Epeatante for the Mares

I don't think Epatatnte has gone back as much as Honeysuckle and she will be better suitined by the trip than her.

I would fancy her chances but Nicky did say this along time ago before the first 2 in the betting were possible runners
If I owned Maries Rock I wouldn't go Stayers
 
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