Cheltenham - Wednesday - What are you backing?
- Thread starter Slim
- Start date
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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- Nov 14, 2006
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- 16,050
Did the treble without TR about 30 mins ago. Like Easysland a lot, and reckon they down tools on Tiger Roll if it remotely looks like he will have a race (acknowledge he maybe just fu*cking wins).
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
I reckon they’d be prepared to sacrifice everything on the altar of a third Nash.
The O’Learys are professional curmudgeons - and very good they are at it - but they’re also egotistical co*ck-knockers too, and a third Nash (imo) means way more to them, than they’d ever be prepared to let on. This may be the Festival, but it is a punt endeavour, set against a potential Aintree treble.
Of course, this only has relevance if something can get TR into a race - something I happen to think Easysland might be capable of.
The O’Learys are professional curmudgeons - and very good they are at it - but they’re also egotistical co*ck-knockers too, and a third Nash (imo) means way more to them, than they’d ever be prepared to let on. This may be the Festival, but it is a punt endeavour, set against a potential Aintree treble.
Of course, this only has relevance if something can get TR into a race - something I happen to think Easysland might be capable of.
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Double Handful
At the Start
Does Tiger Roll need to complete the race to actually qualify for the National, or is it just once he starts the race?
Always complete
Tiny Clanger
At the Start
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2012
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- 383
Apart from the 4 Acca,
No bet
Copperhead L15ew
Top Moon L15ew
No bet
No bet
Palladium L15ew / Gaelach ew
Queens Brook L15ew
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No bet
Copperhead L15ew
Top Moon L15ew
No bet
No bet
Palladium L15ew / Gaelach ew
Queens Brook L15ew
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Maxbet
Journeyman
- Joined
- Dec 31, 2013
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- 2,059
Horses do not qualify because they have either not run over fences this season or not yet finished in the first four in a race over 23 and a half furlongs in their career.
So long as he lines up and starts the race, there on after it doesn't matter if he pulls up, he still meets the qualifying criteria!
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
DDC at 10/1 is my main bet in the Coral Cup now that my other A/P bets (all NRNB so no harm done) came out. Always a quality race, though.
granger
Senior Jockey
I don't like the RSA today at all
Minella is a very weak fav based on his fencing to date. His only big plus is he is a certainty to stay
Minella is a very weak fav based on his fencing to date. His only big plus is he is a certainty to stay
Double Handful
At the Start
In terms of it being top class, I probably agree PJ. I think it's way more competitive than the majority seem to. There's very very little between 6 or 7 of them imo.
I'm playing the bigger prices here and I think as I look at it right now, Slate House E/W (4 places Hills) represents the best value.
14:10 RSA Insurance Novices Chase
Minella Indo (current fav) & Copperhead. They’re my 2nd a 3rd rated and fit various trends. The one I have top rated just ahead of Minella Indo in terms of pure form is Champ which is currently 2nd fav, but I’ve gone against it because a significant negative for Champ in the trends is that it fell lto and in the last 19 runs of the race none of the winners have done that and the worst pos they've had lto is 3rd and that's only one of them. Will be interesting to see if that stat holds true. Might have to do a break even bet on Champ though cos of it's rating, dunno I'll see.
Minella Indo (current fav) & Copperhead. They’re my 2nd a 3rd rated and fit various trends. The one I have top rated just ahead of Minella Indo in terms of pure form is Champ which is currently 2nd fav, but I’ve gone against it because a significant negative for Champ in the trends is that it fell lto and in the last 19 runs of the race none of the winners have done that and the worst pos they've had lto is 3rd and that's only one of them. Will be interesting to see if that stat holds true. Might have to do a break even bet on Champ though cos of it's rating, dunno I'll see.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Aug 2, 2005
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- 25,024
I'm wondering if The Glancing Queen could be the bet of the day at around 16/1.
I vaguely recall King saying she was unlucky last year and he's managed to keep her bumper status for this year. Last year's race was phenomenal and, in theory, she could be 10lbs better with age. How far would we expect Envoi Allen or Abacadabras to win this year's race and what price would we expect them to be?
In the meantime, here's where the rest of my thoughts are heading:
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I vaguely recall King saying she was unlucky last year and he's managed to keep her bumper status for this year. Last year's race was phenomenal and, in theory, she could be 10lbs better with age. How far would we expect Envoi Allen or Abacadabras to win this year's race and what price would we expect them to be?
In the meantime, here's where the rest of my thoughts are heading:
| Main fancies | Possibles | Longshots | Comments | ||
| 1.30 | Ballymore | Sp John | Easywork Son Of Camas | EA looks a good thing but not my price; read/heard somewhere that SJ is thought a ‘monster’ or something like that. Only 11/10 in mkt w/o EA; Easywork & SOC just big prices given connections. | |
| 1.10 | RSA | Allaho Champ | Can’t see past these two. Took Allaho A/P a couple of weeks ago but expect Champ to improve a lot. Will back him too. | ||
| 2.50 | Coral Cup | Dame De Compagnie | Burrows Edge Franco De Port | Kilfenora Golan Fortune | Took 10s DDC the other day, been waiting for it; also thought BE was not meant to win last time but the race fell in its lap, another trained all year for this; Franco De Port to cover the bets, just in case, profile suggests its highly regarded. Kilf was a lot shorter a couple of weeks ago, 7lbs claimer the reason for drift? Boy has good record for shrewd trainers; Golan Fortune will appreciate testing pace for shrewd operator. |
| 3.30 | Champion Chse | Chacun Pour Soi Defi Du Seuil | Dynamite Dollars | Not betting front two. Happy with ew bet on D Dollars at 20/1. | |
| 4.10 | X-Country | No interest | Tiger Roll miles clear on ratings. Good thing at evens? Sickness insurance on MBite? | ||
| 4.50 | Juv Hcap Hdle | Mick Pastor | Recent Revelations | I usually only take potshots at this race as there’s no way of being certain about the form. RR looks too long at 20s given trainer-jockey combo (Elliott-Russell). Backed MP for Triumph so have to back it here. | |
| 5.30 | Bumper | The Glancing Queen | One True King | Vaguely recall King saying she was unlucky last year. In theory should be 10lbs better a year later. NTD tends not to tilt at windmills in the better bumper races, jockey booking suggests big improvement expected. Hoping for 100+/1. |
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Fast Eddie
At the Start
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- Jul 24, 2014
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- 62
Envoi, and Mossy Fen ew
Copperhead
Birchdale ew
Defi
Tiger
Thyme White ew
Adrimel ew
Had Honeysuckle and a couple of 2nds with Abracadabras and Lord du Mesnil, so hoping to be on the right side of the close ones today.
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Copperhead
Birchdale ew
Defi
Tiger
Thyme White ew
Adrimel ew
Had Honeysuckle and a couple of 2nds with Abracadabras and Lord du Mesnil, so hoping to be on the right side of the close ones today.
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You can't let a silly stat stop you from betting the classiest horse in the race.
Did Might Bite not fall at Kempton before smashing them in the RSA. Sure he didn’t have another run after Kempton
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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- May 2, 2003
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Chacun Poir Soi a NR
As is Mister Blue Sky
Yeah they are of similar importance...
I'll have to have a saver on it cos it's my top rated, but out of the range of trends I looked at that's the one of the ones that smacks in the face the most. Certainly peaks my interest for doing a temp runner from work to watch he race.