Thought I'd post my 2 pence
2:45 Chester
TOTESPORT.COM CHESTER CUP (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (4yo+)
Going: GOOD. Number of runners: 61. Distance 2m2f147y
Macorville - Had been progressive before injury, finishing 4th in the Gp1 Irish St Leger. Handicapper hasn’t taken any chances though, 17lbs higher than when finishing 2nd in the 2m Northumberland Plate. Stamina to prove beyond 2m, but favourably drawn for front runner.
Hindu Kush - 4th behind Conduit in last season’s Gp1 St Leger, when trained by A P O’Brien. More target man than striker for Coolmore, but bought by current connections and better than ever when chasing home Alandi last time. Stays 1m6½f, but has plenty of stamina and should stay further, although not well drawn for front runner.
Carte Diamond - Veteran stayer, hasn’t been the same since suffering a life threatening injury. Unable to take advantage of dropping handicap mark on all weather last time, but has good course form. Unproven stamina, but has shaped as if needing an extreme test and an interesting outsider.
Ajaan - Talented, but quirky sort who’s aided by blinkers. Won middle distance Newmarket handicaps, in contrasting styles, before finishing very tired in the 2m5f Queen Alexandra Stakes. Stays 1m7f, should get 2m3f, freshened up after a winter break and of interest now dropped back to winnable mark from decent draw.
Daraahem - Course winner, should be suited by 2m+. Ready winner of a 1m6f handicap in soft ground before not knocked about when disappointing in the Cesarewitch. Subsequently gelded and should improve with time. Acts on good ground or softer, and hails from stable in white hot form.
Desert Sea - All weather/turf winner, won a slowly run race over 18f two season ago. Ran better than the bare form in the Cesarewitch (cap park draw) and looked better than ever when winning on his reappearance. Up in the weights, so will need to improve again, but stable can do little wrong at the minute.
Halla San - Hasn’t won on the flat for more than two years, but knocking on the door. Only tenth in this race last season, but had a poor prep race over hurdles. Much better effort at Ayr last time and he should stay 2m+. Stable are in good form and rates as a contender.
Amerigo - Back with Michael Jarvis after not taking to hurdles. Had been a progressive stayer beforehand, finishing 2nd to Paktai in the 2m Gp3 Queen’s Vase, form which suggests he’ll 2m+ and is well handicapped. Scope for further improvement makes him a big player, despite wide draw and unproven on soft ground.
Som Tala - Competed in this race twice previously, 5th and 2nd, in 2007 and 2008 respectively. 5lbs higher than last year though and will probably need to improve to win. With no concerns regarding race parameters he shouldn’t be too far away from favourable draw.
Dunaskin - Veteran gelding, stays 1m4f, but little encouragement over further. Dropping down the handicap but unlikely to benefit from that from his wide draw.
Downhiller - Tough and progressive type. Stays 2m, shapes as if likely to get further and 2lbs ahead of the handicapper after win at Ripon on last start. Balance of form entitles him to be a player.
Gala Evening - Dual code performer, stays stiff 3m over hurdles and 2m on the flat. Excuses for last two efforts on turf, not fit and sweated up badly. Better than bare form of recent 2nd behind Desert Sea, held up off a steady gallop, and of interest judged on best flat form for shrewd connections.
Tilt - Versatile staying handicapper, but hasn’t won for three years due to his consistency. Third in the Chester Cup last season, but 4lbs higher this year after sixth in the Cesarewitch. Now a 7yo his reappearance effort was worrying and chances rest on the return of cheekpieces.
Formax - Consistent middle distance handicapper, stays 1m6f, but shapes as if could get further. Stable has had a slow start to the season and others have more solid claims.
Inchnadamph - Veteran, strong staying type, outpaced when well beaten seventh in Chester Cup last season. Well beaten on reappearance and chance time could have caught up with the 9yo.
Warsaw Pact - 1½m handicapper for Sir Mark Prescott three years ago but now with Phillip Hobbs. Improved over hurdles recently and could potentially be well handicapped on his old mark. Limit of stamina on the flat used to be 12f, but stays 20f over hurdles, and could go well despite poor draw.
Double Banded - Second favourite in last season’s renewal but shaped like non-stayer when well beaten in fourth. Makes his debut for last year’s winning trainer, Ian Williams, and could challenge for a place once again.
Wicked Daze - Leading fancy for the Ebor last season, after winning Ascot 2m handicap. Something clearly amiss and showed no form on subsequent three runs. Joined Ian Williams this season and returned to form on reappearance. Stays 2m, should get further and leading player if building on last season’s early promise, but wide draw to overcome.
Nemo Spirit - Big colt, stays 2m and shapes as if likely to improve stepped up in trip. Much more effective with plenty of cut, this front runner would have been better suited by low draw.
Tissue – Amerigo 6/1, Daraaham 7/1, Som Tala 10/1, Downhiller 11/1, Hindu Kush 16/1, Ajaan 16/1, Gala Evening 16/1, Warsaw Pact 18/1, Desert Sea 18/1, Double Banded 18/1, Halla Sun 18/1, Tilt 20/1, Wicked Daze 20/1, Macorville 20/1, Carte Diamond 25/1, Nemo Spirit 25/1, Formax 33/1, Inchnadamph 50/1, Dunaskin 66/1.
VERDICT
After John Egan’s daylight robbery on Admiral a few seasons ago, the Chester Cup has been run at a fast pace, removing some of the advantages to low drawn prominent runners. This year’s renewal features plenty of pace but of those only Macorville is draw low. Potentially this could allow him the run of the race but it seems more likely the wide drawn pacesetters will track across and set a strong pace.
Tilt and Som Tala fought out the finish last year but this year’s renewal looks stronger. Daraahem and Amerigo are the pick of the progressive stayers and the selection would have been the latter but for the result of the draw. The former has his stamina to prove beyond 1m6f but has to be respected given connections and his progressive profile.
Preference then is for two older types who both appear well handicapped for shrewd connections. Ajaan lost his way last season but should be better for his winter break, a quirky but high class individual he was cantering all over them in the Queen Alexandra and will be better suited by the drop in trip. Gala Evening has been much improved over hurdles recently and ran an encouraging race on the all weather despite being unsuited by the run of the race.
1pt WIN – AJAAN @ 18/1
1pt WIN – GALA EVENING @ 20/1
