Cheveley Park Stakes

A

Aragorn

At the Start
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Apr 16, 2009
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Tremendous race tomorrow bringing together the seasons best 2yo fillies and the focus will be on the third meeting of Tiggy Wiggy and Anthem Alexander. The Irish filly doesn't have a 3lb penalty this time and I don't think there will be much between them. The Hannon filly may just have the edge but it will be close.

High celebrity has been impressive either side of her defeat in the Duchess of Cambridge by Arabian Queen. The latter got the run of the race and a great Moore ride that day whilst High Celebrity was slow away, got a bump, looked green and couldn't reel Arabian Queen back. Arabian Queen has been beaten since over 7f but I do think the current 33/1 (best price) is a bit of an affront now she's back over 6f at Newmarket; I wouldn't put people off her each way. The French filly could be very good, Fabre seems to think so and has to rate a big danger as well but her price reflects that.

Tendu left her debut behind at Kempton and hammered her maiden field in a decent time. Gosden doesn't over face his horses and wouldn't have supplemented her if she wasn't a group class filly but I think she is a little skinny based on what she has done.

The filly that really interests me is Terror. She made her debut on the last ever flat card at Warwick and routed her field by 10 lengths on debut. The form in itself is average but its the time that interests me. There were four 6f races on that card and she clocked a time over 0.7sec faster than anything else on the day. The conditions race, won by the 105 rated 5yo Complicate carrying the same weight as Terror, was won in a time 0.72sec slower than the 2yo filly managed on debut.

The ground is a bit of a concern and she is up against some very good and proven fillies here but at 14/1 e/w 1,2,3 I think she represents real value and I'm considering a decent bet.

Cracking race.
 
I've gone with High Celebrity. Got 6s earlier in the week.

I think it's a great betting race because history suggests fillies that have been on the go all season usually have had enough by the time this race comes around so Tiggy Wiggy is well worth taking on.
 
6's is a fair price Euro. I'd like to see her lead again, her maiden win was impressive from the front but at 9/2 I can't back her as I think they'll hold her up and she'll pull too hard.
 
Should be a cracking race. Tiggy has been plenty busy enough. AA doesn't have the penalty either this time. Throw in the french filly aswell and it should be a cracker. Would probably side with AA if pushed but too close to call.
 
Tiggy and the irish will be quite close today
the key is how the french fillie will improve on this ground

at the prices, the french and irish to take on the fav
 
Got 22 win and 4.0 to place on terror last night. Happy with that.

Appears to be some confidence behind the french filly.
 
Aragorn said:
Tremendous race tomorrow bringing together the seasons best 2yo fillies and the focus will be on the third meeting of Tiggy Wiggy and Anthem Alexander. The Irish filly doesn't have a 3lb penalty this time and I don't think there will be much between them. The Hannon filly may just have the edge but it will be close.

High celebrity has been impressive either side of her defeat in the Duchess of Cambridge by Arabian Queen. The latter got the run of the race and a great Moore ride that day whilst High Celebrity was slow away, got a bump, looked green and couldn't reel Arabian Queen back. Arabian Queen has been beaten since over 7f but I do think the current 33/1 (best price) is a bit of an affront now she's back over 6f at Newmarket; I wouldn't put people off her each way. The French filly could be very good, Fabre seems to think so and has to rate a big danger as well but her price reflects that.

Tendu left her debut behind at Kempton and hammered her maiden field in a decent time. Gosden doesn't over face his horses and wouldn't have supplemented her if she wasn't a group class filly but I think she is a little skinny based on what she has done.

The filly that really interests me is Terror. She made her debut on the last ever flat card at Warwick and routed her field by 10 lengths on debut. The form in itself is average but its the time that interests me. There were four 6f races on that card and she clocked a time over 0.7sec faster than anything else on the day. The conditions race, won by the 105 rated 5yo Complicate carrying the same weight as Terror, was won in a time 0.72sec slower than the 2yo filly managed on debut.

The ground is a bit of a concern and she is up against some very good and proven fillies here but at 14/1 e/w 1,2,3 I think she represents real value and I'm considering a decent bet.

Cracking race.
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wouldn't get too drawn to the warwick time tbh..it was raining all afternoon ..even the 3rd race time looks good compared to complicates race

obviously a decent 2yo but faces seriously different ground here
 
I think Tiggy Wiggy will weaken up the hill at the end of 6f here..i think 5f she is unbeatable..probably best 5f 2yo i've seen...this is a different test.

I can't see anything living with High Celebrity on this ground
 
Ridden with one eye on the Abbaye I suspect - brilliant performance and a very good ride .

What a fabulous two year old she is - I suspect she would be unbeaten had they just let her roll like that all season.
 
Great run but even greater ride! They played nicely into her hands.

The French filly struggled with the dip and has a dodgy set of knees when you look at her head on - no surprise they indicated afterwards they'd keep her to flat tracks in future.
 
I was against her but didnt bet .. I cannot back two year olds with so many runs behind them . Wrong. I think she's fantastic and there has to be a lt of credit for the always underrated trainer
 
TW aside, I can't help thinking all the other juvenile filly form is pointing strongly towards Cursory Glance for the Guineas.

As for TW, Hannon has said more than once already that this is her year. He's been brutally honest about that. I imagine if she trains on next season they'll be very pleasantly surprised.

Can't understand any doubts about her at 6f. She wasn't exactly stopping at York.
 
i didn't have concerns about 6f..on a flat track..this isn't flat at the end though so is a bit tougher than York

I haven't got any now funnily enough.;)

just to add though..had a soft time up front yesterday..was a real sprint at the end with all of the field getting a mark up on sectionals..they got rode to sleep behind
 
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Grand performance from a very consistent filly but I think her stride was shortening in the final 100 yards.

Would love to see her winning but I think the Guineas will be beyond her.
 
I think she is one of those horses that could be kept at sprint trips next year and she could be a real superstar at 5f & 6f..a lot better than Sole Power's level and the last 10 years worth of sprinters

what will happen though is they will probably stretch her out..shame really as based on her speed figures at 2yo..if she develops through the winter at an average rate.. would be in the Dayjur bracket ..probably would be even with below average 2-3yo progress

i really hope they stick to sprints as a 3yo..be nice to have something really special at that trip for a change
 
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EC1 said:
I think she is one of those horses that could be kept at sprint trips next year and she could be a real superstar at 5f & 6f..a lot better than Sole Power's level and the last 10 years worth of sprinters

what will happen though is they will probably stretch her out..shame really as based on her speed figures at 2yo..if she develops through the winter at an average rate.. would be in the Dayjur bracket ..probably would be even with below average 2-3yo progress

i really hope they stick to sprints as a 3yo..be nice to have something really special at that trip for a change
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What's her raw speed like at 5f?

I'm not convinced the wfa concession works with juveniles. I read a theory years ago about how putting 3lbs on a sprinter's back might slow it down a length but you need to take 6lbs off to allow it to speed up by a length. I'm not convinced by that either, even allowing for it just averaging out a sample.

Can she run 5f in 55 seconds? The bottom line is that she'll need to do just about that to win the Abbaye. The York race suggests she struggle to beat 57 seconds. You have to go back to Sigy in 1978 for the last 2yo winner and she couldn't beat 59s. In 2008 Marchand D'Or clocked 54.4 and he was not a great sprinter.
 
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