Cheveley Park Stakes

There was talk of the new G1 3yo sprint at Royal Ascot next year, which by the way, i think is one of the best additions to the pattern in years.
 
I think the key is to know if she will be able to perform like she has dones in her last 3 starts, if she does so, with the big allowance she wins the abadie in a canter
 
Desert Orchid said:
What's her raw speed like at 5f?

I'm not convinced the wfa concession works with juveniles. I read a theory years ago about how putting 3lbs on a sprinter's back might slow it down a length but you need to take 6lbs off to allow it to speed up by a length. I'm not convinced by that either, even allowing for it just averaging out a sample.

Can she run 5f in 55 seconds? The bottom line is that she'll need to do just about that to win the Abbaye. The York race suggests she struggle to beat 57 seconds. You have to go back to Sigy in 1978 for the last 2yo winner and she couldn't beat 59s. In 2008 Marchand D'Or clocked 54.4 and he was not a great sprinter.
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did you do speed figures for her at York?..off the scale

flatter track the better i'd think..yesterday is not an ideal prep for the Abbaye though is it?..you'd be lucky to see most Cheveley park winners again that year never mind 8 days later

i think the abbaye is a bad idea..wait another year and win every sprint Group 1 race next year seems a better idea to me..could ruin her next week..is it worth it?

they got a champion sprinter there.
 
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sire stats don't really encourage DO..Kodiac has a better strike rate with 2yo than older horses..not set in stone obviously but those figures can be a good guide to which horses are more mature at 2 than the average

in two minds now after checking that..make hay now..or gamble she grows more..tough one
 
EC1 said:
did you do speed figures for her at York?..off the scale.
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I have now.

115 is pretty exceptional for a juvenile.

It implies she can run 5f in about 57s but if it's fast ground next week she might have to run faster than that.

The other thing about her York speed figure is that for all it is exceptional, what does it say about Cursory Glance, a filly expected to improve significantly for the step up to the mile in the Guineas?

The lines with Alexander Anthem were confirmed. The 2 lengths at York were down to 3/4 (cosy) on the 3lbs better terms. Cursory Glance, who split them at York, went to Ireland and beat Lucida who then came over here and won the Rockfell.

Tom Segal expressed concern after York that the race might have bottomed CG as it was a hard race she had but she defied that and the race report suggested she may have hit the front too soon in Ireland.

Hopefully she'll be put away and brought along with Newmarket at the top of the agenda. If she was trained by O'Brien she'd be 3/1f.
 
EC1 said:
sire stats don't really encourage DO..Kodiac has a better strike rate with 2yo than older horses..not set in stone obviously but those figures can be a good guide to which horses are more mature at 2 than the average

in two minds now after checking that..make hay now..or gamble she grows more..tough one
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Then again, Richard Hughes said she has grown a good four inches this season. is that it or will it continue? Hard to know.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Then again, Richard Hughes said she has grown a good four inches this season. is that it or will it continue? Hard to know.
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or maybe thats it..the sire stats certainly put me off for her keeping growing much more..they could also tell you that in effect she is virtually a 3yo in growth..so getting the 2yo allowance could be the deciding factor for Hannon next week..and make her very difficult to pass
 
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Does anyone have the Lynam quote regarding Tiggy Wiggy, Anthem Alexander and Cursory Glance?

I'm told he said something along the lines of them being the best three fillies in Europe by a mile.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Then again, Richard Hughes said she has grown a good four inches this season. is that it or will it continue? Hard to know.
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Imo, it was said in a sort of 'you're not gonna believe this, but' manner which suggests they hardly expected her to grow at all. Wouldn't have a clue personally, but 4 inches in 7 months or more does sound paltry for a 2yo anyway?
For mine, she was outpaced in a fast ground Queen Mary and will surely struggle over the much sharper Longchamp 5 on anything similar.
 
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reet hard said:
Imo, it was said in a sort of 'you're not gonna believe this, but' manner which suggests they hardly expected her to grow at all. Wouldn't have a clue personally, but 4 inches in 7 months or more does sound paltry for a 2yo anyway?
For mine, she was outpaced in a fast ground Queen Mary and will surely struggle over the much sharper Longchamp 5 on anything similar.
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She was badly drawn in the Queen Mary and they tried to hang on to her - it is no coincidence that her three spectacular efforts have been since they have allowed her to bowl along in front and take the advantage of her terrific speed from the gates .

Hughes is probably pretty cool about next week as he thinks if it stays fine he will win it on Sole Power if she does not go .
 
She was only badly drawn if she needed cover (clearly, she doesn't); she flew the gates yet was being niggled before they'd gone 2f, and was under full treatment from some way out. All this on a course at the opposite end of the spectrum to Longchamp, yet she still needed every yard of it to even gain 2nd.
Hughsie knows that, and is probably the reason behind the cooling of the enthusiasm for running that was so apparent in the immediate euphoria of the Cheveley win.
 
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interestingly Kodiac's offspring don't run well at Ascot..so it may have been something as simple as that..either way its a different animal we have seen since then

Kodiac all results = 12%...AE 0.93

at Ascot = 3/57 = 5% ...AE 0.63

my impression of her is speed..not running uphill..so Longchamp should suit...but its still some ask...i hope she does it but with Hughes being on Sole Power it makes you think they may not even run her
 
reet hard said:
She was only badly drawn if she needed cover (clearly, she doesn't); she flew the gates yet was being niggled before they'd gone 2f, and was under full treatment from some way out. All this on a course at the opposite end of the spectrum to Longchamp, yet she still needed every yard of it to even gain 2nd.
Hughsie knows that, and is probably the reason behind the cooling of the enthusiasm for running that was so apparent in the immediate euphoria of the Cheveley win.
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Judging by the first five furlongs she ran at York this just does not hold water at all .
 
Different distance at York, and she was gifted an easy lead until the later stages.
Even if you allow she'd have performed better in the QM given her head - might even have won - what is indisputable (imo) is that she'd have been pushed for pace throughout the race, and she'd be meeting much sharper horses, on a much quicker track, in the Abbaye.
 
there was no easy lead at York..those were killing fractions..the second furlong was 10.09

The first two furlongs were faster than the Nunthorpe.

Take Cover 23.65
Tiggy Wiggy 23.60

overall time a full 2 seconds faster than a the class B won by Mubtaghaa..off the scale

the overall time was a massive speed figure for a 2yo..one of the most gruelling 5f times ever produced by a 2yo..that i've seen anyway

Newbury was similar..crippling pace shown

Tiggy Wiggy has shown speed figures on a par without wfa to nearly the same level as Sole Power..so what price would Sole Power be with the 2yo allowance in the abbaye?
 
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