Classic Chase (and maybe the other races)

Bachelors Hall

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Too tired to introduce... Much depends on who heads the weights... Will cross that bridge should I come to it... May do other races day before...

Roi du Mee
A veteran in both age and experience, he will be having his fiftieth career start should he show up. With seven Graded wins - including the Grade 1 Down Royal Champion Chase in 2013 - he's always been a high class animal albeit just shy of top notch. Still retains a great deal of his ability as evidenced by his third in this years renewal. A real mud lover winning half of his twelve attempts on heavy ground he's also a highly proficient jumper. Pulled up on his sole UK start in the 2013 Lancashire Chase. Holds entry in Thursday's Kinloch Brae.
Black Thunder
A decent animal with four wins including at Grade 2 but he has yet to win outside of novice/graduation company. Finished second off three pounds lower in the 2014 United House although that was on good ground and was knackered when he unshipped Harry Cobden in last week's Welsh National.
Mala Beach
A decent staying hurdler who won a strongly run renewal of the Galmoy Hurdle two Januarys ago on soft ground so it is feasible that the conditions will suit. However, he's yet to demonstrate that he's as good over the larger obstacles and as well as being somewhat error prone, he has also jumped right in the past. Would be of much greater interest if he takes up his Thyestes entry instead.
Houblon des Obeaux
Starting his career as a decent juvenile hurdler, he's still fairly young for one that has been around for ages. Though without a win since the 2013 Silver Cup, he was arguably at his best last season with three consecutive seconds in the Hennessy, the Silver Cup and the Denman Chase. He's shown nothing like that level of form this season and has been quite shocking in the jumping department. As a consequence, he's already shed a stone off his official rating and he was keeping on at Ascot when beaten. His two runs at marathon distances have been inconclusive but it might take more than a sliding rating to rekindle his spark.
Sego Success
This point winner is still fairly lightly raced although two thirds of his twelve rules start have been over fences. Picked up two soft ground Novice Chases last season including the listed contest on this card despite running keenly in a strongly run race and was sent off second favourite for the four miler where despite a rough passage, was still in contention until late in the day. Not much to shout about in his first two starts this season on good and good to soft ground where his jumping was sketchy. However, with cheekpieces applied, he strung the field out at Doncaster on soft ground putting five lengths between himself and Reaping The Reward who ran with great credit in the Sandown veterans chase. This race was nominated as the target after the event and comes here as a leading player.
Captain Von Trappe
Distantly related to The Dickler, Newmill and Ballyline, this winning pointer was always going to be a chaser and though a novice, has already advanced on his hurdles rating of 117. After winning his second start at Galway, he got within reach of Shantou Flyer at Punchestown before finding the Drinmore happening all too much, and probably too short for him. He was unable to make the running in last month's Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown and eventually pulled up. While obviously a competitive enough race, he has disappointed in all races containing fifteen or more runners.
Folsom Blue
Although he's out of the classy two-mile handicapper Spirit Leader, it has transpired that gruelling tests have proved his metier. A decent novice hurdler picking up a listed event in heavy ground at Clonmel, he has only won once over fences and that came in Punchestown's eighteen runner National Trial over three and a half on heavy ground. Nevertheless, he has ran with credit including when a close fifth in the 2014 Irish National and last month in the Paddy Power when a staying on third after a troubled journey. Holds an entry back at Leopardstown over two mile five for Sunday but would be of interest if making his UK debut in Warwickshire instead.
Algernon Pazham
At seven years old, this second season chaser is very much part of the youth brigade. After making a winning chase debut at Leicester, he twice ran into a place at Haydock on soft although there was a last fence fence refusal at Uttoxeter sandwiched in between. Nevertheless, he capped his inaugural season with a creditable seventh in the Whitbread, weakening in the closing stages. He finished second on his return in a rare for the course Class 2 event and on the back of that, was sent off as favourite for the Becher. However, his jumping was shoddy before finally despatching of Ryan Hatch at Foinavon and the subsequent form of his Bangor second has been much of a muchness in any case. A full brother to Welsh National fourth One In A Milan, he probably has a future in these events but issues surrounding his jumping and attitude need addressing first.
Vivaldi Collonges
Another seven year old, this half brother to the decent Nenuphar Collonges had three starts as a novice last term finishing last in small fields behind Kings Palace before pulling up in the four miler where never travelling. He registered his first win on his return at Kelso last month in heavy ground where after tracking a gentle pace, he ultimately destroyed his five rivals. While that was far from a strong contest, the eight pound rise seems fair. Furthermore, along with Black Thunder, he represents a returning-to-form Nicholls yard that has taken this contest with three of its five entries over the past ten years. Interesting contender although he also holds an entry in the Novices' Chase earlier on the card (yard also has Silsol in that race).
Spookydooky
While this point winner didn't start chasing until this season, he did collect a three mile handicap hurdle at Southwell where though the pace wasn't strong, like many at the track, the race itself was testing enough. It's safe enough to put a line through his chase debut effort at Aintree where he pulled too much to do himself justice and he made amends next time taking a Novices' Handicap at the Hennessy meeting. Though he took a while to get going, he gave plenty for Richard Johnson's urgings to take the race near the line. Though he earned a two day ban, the jockey praised the horse's attitude and surmised that he's suited by soft ground and a big field. He was second last time out in the attritional Tommy Whittle and went down with credit keeping a rejuvenated Cloudy Too behind him while giving weight. That he's a full brother to Welsh National runner up Firebird Flyer emphasises his latent stamina and is another interesting type.
Dromnea
Twice a winner as a novice last term, Dromnea is no stranger to big fields having ran respectably in three twenty-plus fields as a novice hurdler and the big novice handicaps at the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals. This season, he's turned his attention to taking on three miles, participating in the Troytown and the Paddy Power and running with greater credit in the latter despite finishing seventh. While he's another with a Thyestes entry, he'd probably fare better in lesser company than this.
Red Devil Lads
An expensive horse after his wide margin win in an Irish point, it took him nine rules starts (including two chasing failures) to finally get off the mark in a Ffos Las handicap hurdle last season. After pulling up on his return to fences, he reeled off a hat-trick of wins in the spring in three mile plus events (two on heavy) and his mark rose from 109 to 136. He made a satisfactory return at Ludlow in the middle of December coming off worse in an eventual match. He has a tendency to jump left which seems to be mitigated by going the right way and can take his racing well. However, he wasn't jumping well before departing early in the Welsh National last week.
Unic de Bersy
A maiden over hurdles, he won his chase debut at Wexford in October and though he found Grade 2 company two hot in November, he's since finished runner up in a couple of handicaps. Those handicaps have both come in 2016 and it would be a shame if he's asked to run again this month.
Midnight Prayer
Won the Novice Chase on this card two years ago and followed up with the four miler at the festival. However, has only ran twice since finishing well beaten in the Hennessy last season and returning to the same meeting to finish fourth over two mile six. Initially looking out of sorts as he lacked fluency and struggled to keep pace, he did begin to pick up when stamina became an issue and ultimately ran well in a race that was bound to be too sharp. While he's a stablemate of Sego Success, Alan King does have a fine record in this race and it was with another eleven year old that he won the race in 2008.
Doing Fine
Only had two runs as a hurdler as following a shock defeat of Carrag Mor, his season was curtailed. Nevertheless, he made a winning return on his chase debut in a Novices' Handicap at Ffos Las on soft and while his next two runs were disappointing, he ran with credit when second in the Novice Chase on this card last season. Afterwards, he finished midfield in the four miler before running no sort of race at Punchestown. He made a decent enough start to his second season when third in the old Mercedes Benz chase at Chepstow but after stumbling in the Badger Ales, his race fell to pieces completely. While he has ability, all told, he would need a career best to win here which given his fragile and mercurial profile is far from assured.
Rigadin de Beauchene
Despite having more Ps than 1s in his formline, he is a most likable stalwart of the spere with wins in both this contest three years ago (off eleven pounds lower) and the Haydock National Trial in 2014 (still off a two pound lower mark than here). After pulling up on his next four starts - including in both aforementioned contests - he threatened a resurgence and he made good on his threats with a hugely popular win from fellow veteran Harry The Viking in last month's The Last Fling chase. While winning this year's renewal would be immense, it necessitates winning off a mark higher than he's ever won from before and his inconsistent nature only exacerbates his task.
Loose Chips
A capable performer at his level but has always been found wanting at Class 2 and above including last time at Kempton when beaten twenty-nine lengths at 16/1. Goes in the soft as evidenced by his second in a close knit race at Ascot on his penultimate start but seemed leg weary on his sole start at three and a half and is a likelier type for the military races again at Sandown.
Pete The Feat
Was attempting a six-timer when going off as favourite and finishing a close third in the 2013 renewal of this race. Was only two pounds higher that day and his last comparable effort was when winning a six runner Fontwell contest on good to soft that December. Some encouragement on his last start back at that track when second of seven but is biting off too much here.
Ballyheigue Bay
Found things happening too quickly when finishing behind Loose Chips on his latest start at Kempton but prior to that, had finished in the first three in all of his five chase efforts. On his penultimate start, he produced a career best to finish third in the London Marathon so getting the trip shouldn't be a problem. However, that was on good to soft and his capacity for a dour slog can not be assured as his only previous start in heavy came in a two and a half mile Amateur Riders' Hurdle at Plumpton.
Upepito
This ex-French eight year old has been jumping fences since he was three and was unlucky to have gained his only blemish when slipping and unseating at Aintree two starts ago. He actually won the two mile Handicap Chase on this card last season and made an fine return to action this term when narrowly going down while giving a pound to the vastly improved Village Vic at Wetherby on good ground. However, has two huge questions to answer in his resolve (found little after travelling like the winner last time) and more pertinently, the fact that he'll be going a mile further than he's ever been previously.
What A Good Night
Since October 2014, he has gone up from a mark of 83 to today's perch of 131 despite only winning three of the seven relevant races. Bizarrely, during that period, he twice fell at the last fence when having the race unequivocally under wraps. Indeed, the only non-victory or incompletion came when bursting a blood vessel on his final race last term. His latest start was when handing a defeat to Algernon Pazham and although the form hasn't worked out brilliantly, his jumping was fine. Intriguingly, he was saved for the Rowland Meyrick which would have been "his Gold Cup" so he will be finely tuned should he turn up. However, whilst a clear improver, Warwick is not a forgiving racecourse for clumsy jumpers and he has been miserable on his previous attempts on heavy ground.
Cyclop
A curious specimen being a small five year old and competing in this race. Nevertheless, he was set to run out a most comfortable winner over three miles on heavy at Market Rasen when falling at the last and made amends at this track a week later on soft ground jumping brilliantly in the process. However, in The Last Fling chase at Haydock, his jumping did not hold up at all and ultimately cost him any real chance although to his credit, he still stayed on when beaten. If his latest start was a one off then it is very difficult to know quite what to make of Cyclop and he can't be dismissed out of hand. All the same, he still needs to find improvement and it would still make for a remarkable achievement should he win this heat.
Audacious Plan
A fair hurdler earning a rating of 123, he was flattered to finished placed on his first couple of chase starts. An improved effort at Chepstow was followed by a win at Ffos Las over three miles on good ground before improving again when runner up over three mile six on soft ground at the Punchestown Festival. He wasn't given a hard time of things on his first two starts this season at Chepstow and Cheltenham on good ground and neither outing was without promise. However, returning to Cheltenham saw an inauspicious outing where he didn't jump a fence and was pulled up some way from home. Still relatively unexposed and capable of improvement but others with more solid profiles.
Golden Chieftain
Grand servant who sneaked in at the bottom of the handicap to win at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. Though he hasn't achieved anything like that since, he did collect the Southern National in November off 121. However, depending on who tops the weights, we're now entering the realm of long handicap (maybe long-long handicap) and even off 128, a race this competitive would be a tough ask at this stage of his career.
Ballyoliver
A course winner on his chase debut on new years eve 2011 and recorded his latest win off his current mark at Carlisle last November but a thirty-two length sixth in this contest last year and difficult to see him fare better this time round.
Russe Blanc
A steady improver over the past couple of seasons winning over three mile two and on heavy ground. Disappointed when favourite in a five runner Bangor contest last month and a mark of 127 looks just beyond his scope. Particularly at this level.
Foxbridge
Lightly raced ten year old who reeled off a hat trick of wins last season before a creditable fifth in the Midlands National. Promising second in the Amateurs' race at the Paddy Power meeting in November and wouldn't be a forlorn hope off 126.
De Kerry Man
Was undefeated in three starts over fences last season with his wins coming over around two and a half miles including at this track. Was still in the lead when slipping on landing and unseating three out in the three mile two handicap at Cheltenham on new year's day. Has since been aimed at this race and can't be readily discounted.
Lovcen
Fourth in the Spa Novices' Hurdle at the festival in 2012 and won the Sefton Novices' Hurdle that season for Alan King. Achieved nothing of the likes since and was sold to the Leech's for £18,000. Won a three runner Wetherby Novice on his first start for the yard in May 2014 but has done nothing in either subsequent run.
Universal Soldier
Pulled up in this race three years ago before winning a pair of Hunter Chases the following season. Last seen in June when pulling up in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter.
Tales Of Milan
Never had a rating higher than 124 and pulled up off that mark in last year's renewal. Best effort since was when eighteen lengths behind Loose Chips in a military race and last seen beaten thirty lengths in the London National.
Coolking
Second in the 2014 Devon National off 118 and won at this course last March off 105. Neither effort gives him a chance here.
 
Can't argue he'll be well handicapped that's for sure.

I'm perplexed by the Warwick entries though. There's a 3m novice chase on the card which has attracted a series of horses with the Cheltenham 4 miler on the agenda, though clearly they won't all run on Saturday with Mullins likely to only send one (if any) of Black Hercules, Pont Alexandre or Roi Des Francs over.

Yet a seemingly stamina laden horse who accompanies them near the head of the festival race, Onenightinvienna, ducks this in favor of the 2 mile handicap on the same card.

Go figure and one can only assume Hobbs doesn't want to blunt what speed he does have by running him over 3 miles in potentially atrocious conditions.
 
I backed him last time off 150 in ideal conditions but he ran no sort of race. Think he's gone personally and doesn't strike me as a national horse at all.
 
From my review of his last race:

Houblon Des Obeaux looked to be trying [I'd backed him at 11/1] but despite travelling well on the first circuit gave up tamely once headed. I’ve no doubt he’ll come back one day but it’s getting hard working out when that will be.

I didn't back him in the Hennessy before that but had at Ascot the time before as well as a few times last season.

He's going to have to carry at least some sickness insurance.
 
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His jumping is the problem. He's making mistakes he wasn't making previously and getting outpaced immediately afterwards. Warwick is no place for a horse with jumping issues.

Now I've said that he'll p*ss up!
 
No disputing the quality of the thread but couldn't it have gone into the Weekend Racing at Warwick and Wetherby thread, we're beginning to clutter up with Cheltenham imminent and more than one thread about the same subject makes it a bit confusing.
 
Cheers fellas and Spookydooky is a huge bet at 12/1 when isolated from the form of the O'Neill yard. Indeed, he's only had one runner since the 2nd (PU) and hasn't any others entered in GB aside from this one.

Forgot to mention but Sego Success would be the selection although the 10/1 available when I posted this is nothing but a memory.

No disputing the quality of the thread but couldn't it have gone into the Weekend Racing at Warwick and Wetherby thread, we're beginning to clutter up with Cheltenham imminent and more than one thread about the same subject makes it a bit confusing.

I agree wholeheartedly :D

(Check times of the threads)
 
Black Thunder
... and was knackered when he unshipped Harry Cobden in last week's Welsh National.

Great post, BH, but I would strongly dispute this. He looked in trouble at the same stage of his previous race at Cheltenham but was just building up a head of steam when he blundered. The way he finished ahead of Mountainous the other day suggests to me he still had loads to offer at the time of his mistake.

I don't imagine he'll run anyway but if he does it might be a sign the trainer doesn't think he had a hard time of it on Saturday.
 
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** Wipes egg off face :rolleyes:

It happens :D

Perhaps in the future, whoever's so inclined on a Monday starts a "This Weekend's Racing *date*". That would help prevent this kind of thing happening again.

Great post, BH, but I would strongly dispute this. He looked in trouble at the same stage of his previous race at Cheltenham but was just building up a head of steam when he blundered. The way he finished ahead of Mountainous the other day suggests to me he still had loads to offer at the time of his mistake.

I don't imagine he'll run anyway but if he does it might be a sign the trainer doesn't think he had a hard time of it on Saturday.

My apologies, you're absolutely right. I was following the wrong loose horse on my laptop and on inspecting the recording I still have on the telly, Black Thunder was indeed FPTP. Good spot.

I can only remember specific examples but don't "incompletes" still fare rather poorly when sent out for swift compensation? Especially as it's not as though Black Thunder simply ambled his way back to the stables while avoiding the stiff Chepstow fences.
 
I've also taken a little bit of the 12/1 Spookydooky.

There are three or four others with fanciable chances but this is one that looks likely to shorten a good bit before the day.

I'm happy enough to hold off on the others for the time being but I see HDO has gone blue across the board (presumably due to the article DG linked).
 
Thanks. A random statement but I'd go along with that. Incidentally, I'm also loved and claimed by a Bosnian (and that might become Bosnians if her parents ever truly accept me)

You're the Grasshopper of forums. Original and inimitable. Go you!

It's nice to be nice...
 
Bachelors Hall doesn't feel that his name lends itself well to third person self referrals. Although he does subscribe to the notion that the giving of presents is an ultimately pointless endeavour - all things considered.

Thank you :)
 
I'm happy enough to hold off on the others for the time being but I see HDO has gone blue across the board (presumably due to the article DG linked).

Paul Kealy has headlined HDO in his Weekender column. That would be another factor in the price-cutting yesterday evening. He makes largely the same [obvious] case as the chap in DG's link.

HDO was already a seriously well handicapped animal before his most recent drop.

The handicapper has taken the view that he his gone but as I said before he will come back one day, just as Rigadin De Beauchene and Aachen have this season.

Anyone in a position to know the exact race in which he will can do a Baerlein.
 
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