Classic Chase (and maybe the other races)

Bachelors Hall said:
Midnight Prayer
Won the Novice Chase on this card two years ago and followed up with the four miler at the festival. However, has only ran twice since finishing well beaten in the Hennessy last season and returning to the same meeting to finish fourth over two mile six. Initially looking out of sorts as he lacked fluency and struggled to keep pace, he did begin to pick up when stamina became an issue and ultimately ran well in a race that was bound to be too sharp. While he's a stablemate of Sego Success, Alan King does have a fine record in this race and it was with another eleven year old that he won the race in 2008.
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I'm sweet on Midnight Prayer.
He won the four miler at the Cheltenham Festival then was raised two pounds.
He ran below par in 2014 in a season where he wasn't seen on a racecourse.
His placed effort last time was a satisfactory comeback.
He's presently six pound lower than after his festival win.
I think the handicapper has handed him a chance.
 
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I've backed two in this when the entries came out this morning. I'm with Marble and Midnight Prayer has a leading chance. The fact that Hutchinson has ditched him favour of Sego Success doesn't bother me, and in fact I'd say Tom Bellemy's 3lb claim and what looks a lenient mark could possibly make all the difference come the line. He's off the same mark as when he won it 2 years ago less the claim. He was also given a similarly long break between races then, and this looks targeted. With a clear round I can't see him out of the four (in fact I think he'll win), and 8/1 is a steal ew.

The other I like is Rigadin de Beuchene. Plenty of P's in his profile in recent seasons, but there's been signs of life recently including a win in his last race when beating two horses on my watchlist. He won this race the season before Midnight Prayer did, and conditions are absolutely perfect for him. He also looks capable of winning or going close again off his current mark which is 11 lb's below his best. Venetia's horses flying is also a big bonus and 12's was too big to resist also ew.

As the two most unexposed in the race, I fear De Kerry Man and Vivaldi Collonges, so they have been included in combination tricasts with my two selections, and I've done MP and RDB in a double on their own.
 
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Maruco said:
I've backed two in this when the entries came out this morning. I'm with Marble and Midnight Prayer has a leading chance. The fact that Hutchinson has ditched him favour of Sego Success doesn't bother me
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Hutchison on ML tomorrow, so will presumably say why
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Hutchison on ML tomorrow, so will presumably say why
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I'd say it was probably a toss of a coin. Very close. They've both won at Warwick before but Sego Success is the younger horse so perhaps he think there's potential for more improvement. For me though Sego Success isn't the best at his fences and Warwick takes no prisoners in that regard. I wouldn't be surprised if King isn't quietly pleased that Bellamy takes the three pounds off Midnight Prayer.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Paul Kealy has headlined HDO in his Weekender column. That would be another factor in the price-cutting yesterday evening. He makes largely the same [obvious] case as the chap in DG's link.

HDO was already a seriously well handicapped animal before his most recent drop.

The handicapper has taken the view that he his gone but as I said before he will come back one day, just as Rigadin De Beauchene and Aachen have this season.

Anyone in a position to know the exact race in which he will can do a Baerlein.
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I backed him last time out. The claimer on him was appalling, he never approached any fence with any level of confidence and looked like he was pure shiteing himself before the ditches. I think he's worth a go with a decent jockey up top.
 
Maruco said:
I'd say it was probably a toss of a coin. Very close. They've both won at Warwick before but Sego Success is the younger horse so perhaps he think there's potential for more improvement. For me though Sego Success isn't the best at his fences and Warwick takes no prisoners in that regard. I wouldn't be surprised if King isn't quietly pleased that Bellamy takes the three pounds off Midnight Prayer.
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You may be right Paul but Sego Success has won over Warwick's fences before
 
Well it sounds as if first time cheekpieces and keeping the horse handy and keeping him interested in his last race made a significant difference to the horse which is why WH has opted for him today.
 
lots of on pace horses in the classic..could hurt each other....de kerry man...ballyheig..loose chips...Rigan....Red Devils..houblon does sometimes..thats a lot of hosses taking each other on.

i've dutched what a good night + foxbridge to pick up the pieces
 
Cheers for that DG

In that case, it was a fantastic day's racing. Difficult to choose between the sheer class of Black Hercules, the sentimentality of Flintham or the spectacle that was Russe Blanc capping off a fantastic marathon double for his trainer.

Will definitely be going back to Warwick again.
 
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