Cleeve Hurdle

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Relkeel

At the Start
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Saturday sees potentially a very decent and informative renewal of The Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Inglis Drever has been made favourite by Coral but I think this is a stiff task for him. He has to concede a penalty to many of his rivals and could well end-up having to do more to to win on Saturday than he might at The Festival (where they all meet on level terms).

On the face of it, Inglis Drever is in the form of his life having been raised to a career high Official Rating of 172 for his recent impressive Newbury win. However, I am inclined not to believe that he has suddendly improved 6lbs from his 2007 World Hurdle win but rather that The Long Distance hurdle was run very much to suit him and that, to some extent, he was flattered.

In my opinion, Inglis Drever is a thorough stayer but lacks a turn of foot. Consequently, he usually hits a flat spot when the pace quickens in his races but stays on well (usually well enough) at the end. In the Long Distance Hurdle, Blazing Bailey set a very strong pace throughout. I reckon this suited ID down to the ground - so much so that the flat spot, for once, didn't happen and he simply outstayed his rivals.

It would be foolish to forget that Inglis Drever is a class act and is proven in the conditions so I'm not going to go mad - but I do think he is well worth opposing on Saturday.

Blazing Bailey continues to improve and impress and seems likely to go well but like Inglis Drever, he has the maximum penalty and potentially a stiff task at the weights. Meanwhile, Wichita Lineman should do better than he has so far this season now returned to 3m and holds sound claims. Special Envoy (given far too much to do behind Lough Derg last time out) might not have stopped improving yet either. He has a bit to find with Inglis Drever on the Newbury run - but travelled really well that day and probably suffered for being given one of Paddy Merrigan's over-confident specials.

However, at the prices (12/1 with Coral), the one that interests me most is Millenium Royal. Offially rated only 1lb inferior to Blazing Bailey and 10lbs inferior to Inglis Drever's (IMO) inflated mark, Millenium Royal receives 8lbs from both. Ratings don't tell you everything, but they paint an interesting picture here.

Two runs ago, MR won a red hot handicap hurdle off 156 at Haydock. He was fortunate that day - but time has told us that giving 12lbs to Special Envoy would been virtually impossible. Since then, he was held of his revised mark in a handicap over course and distance. However, he was given a most shockingly inept and injudicious ride by Christophe Pieux that day. Believe me, it was really awful. At no stage did he allow the horse a chance to get into the race.

Pieux will probably be in the saddle again on Saturday, which is a negative but conditions should be fine and I make him well worth a bet. Kawagino has stamina to prove but ran really well in The Lanzarote and isn't the most stupid 50/1 chance I have ever seen.

What do you think?
 
I think you should behave already, Relks!!! Now, you know that Drever is going to win the race, so quit the crap!!! :D
 
Originally posted by Relkeel@Jan 22 2008, 06:40 PM
On the face of it, Inglis Drever is in the form of his life having been raised to a career high Official Rating of 172 for his recent impressive Newbury win. However, I am inclined not to believe that he has suddendly improved 6lbs from his 2007 World Hurdle win but rather that The Long Distance hurdle was run very much to suit him and that, to some extent, he was flattered.
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I'd go along with that.

I've never been able to get Mighty Man above the low-mid 160s and ID has been consistently just better. 168 at best on very tenuous lines but I've stuck with 165 for him for a while.
 
Shadow Leader

You have done exactly what I fancy plenty of people will do and what I did at first. You have taken one glance at the race and thought; "Inglis Drever will win". If you want to lump-on regardless and force the price down then be my guest but take my advice and have a closer look at the race. This is not an easy assignment for Inglis Drever. Indeed, he could quite possibly lose on Saturday but still win The World Hurdle.

Desert Orchid

Do you have a mark for Millenium Royal?


Meanwhile, I see Coral have pushed-out Inglis Drever from 6/4 to 9/4. I presume this is because Howard Johnson is dilly-dallying about whether to run or not.
 
It's probably also because Johnson has said he couldn't get any work into his horses, Relks.

For me, Drever is far and away the best in his division and his admirable tenacity and battling qualities will see him win both here and in March.
 
<< Pieux will probably be in the saddle again on Saturday, which is a negative but conditions should be fine >>

For me a poor jockey and esp a poor jockey over the course, is a huge negative [in by race]. A French jump jock has to be really brilliant to beat the Brit/Irtsh boys esp at Cheltenham which takes some riding - and the home team won't be giving him any help. Lay, in my terms, unless the horse is vastly superior.

Agreed Ingles D is the best in the division, but 'far and away' and esp with little or no work to date? - not sure. Hope so, love the horse, but fitness might tell on the day.
 
Never ridden the horse but a capable substitute,blazing bailey only horse i think will get close to The drever but his win in this last year was getting weight off inglis which i think was the deciding factor of the result so anything over 2-1 is worth taking.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Jan 22 2008, 10:37 PM
It's probably also because Johnson has said he couldn't get any work into his horses, Relks.
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It was a strange comment he made after the race though, as he came perilously close to contradicting that assertion (or was it a mischievous journalist misquoting him in order to push a price out)
 
Did he? Don't know what he said post-race, was oncourse so haven't seen any TV coverage.

Drever is a machine - I just love the horse. Even though Dickie had been pumping away for a while it was clear from before the home turn that he had the race in the bag - even a non-doubter, a Blazing Bailey backer [known to this forum!!] admitted at that point that Drever had it. He's such a terrier, a genuine little horse who tries his heart out. When he's won his third Stayers' in March I expect to be there screaming myself hoarse and awaiting his admission to the hall of fame as a true champion.
 
H e seemed to be indicating that the horse hadn't missed any work (or it could have interpreted thus). He said something like, when you have 150 horses they can't all work, but some are special and get special treatment - or words close to that effect
 
Ah, right. I know they took Drever to Redcar to work on the beach one day last week - he was quoted as saying he couldn't get any work into any of his horses for over a week just before that though! Of course it's open to opinion how accurate the quotes in the RP are nowadays as well!! A horse who is already fit shouldn't be necessarily disadvantaged through missing a week's "work" mind, but even the idea of it tends to be enough to push a price out.
 
I interpreted those comments the other way.

He said "you have to look after some of them".

ID and BB ran their ratings (ie my ratings for them) to the ounce. The disappointment was Millennium Royale and it could be he either needs it boggy or can't live with a proper pace. He was certainly much closer today (to what was a smart-looking pace) than previously but faded from some way out.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Jan 26 2008, 09:49 PM
The disappointment was Millennium Royale and it could be he either needs it boggy or can't live with a proper pace. He was certainly much closer today (to what was a smart-looking pace) than previously but faded from some way out.
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He has looked good in handicaps but he aint the first horse to be unable to run to his mark in an actual graded event.
 
Just to bring Dom's and Dessie's comment together;

I don't know...... Genuinely ...... I don't hold an opinion.

But I will say :P If JHJ has found a way of exercising certain horses, then fair play to him (that's what trainers paid to do). If he's only exercised certain horses? then who can blame him? if it were my principal owner I'd do the same!!!

Could it be mischievous journo's?

I don't know?

I do remain open minded
 
I understood that the point was that he'd only been able to take a certain number to the seaside to exercise on the beach, and he'd had to choose those which were worth the expense - ie the gooduns and those with engagements in the offing. Carting horses about costs a fortune even if you can find the carriers! You couldn't ferry the entire yard off in relays to the seashore, the rest prob had to make do with what could be done at home
 
It's probably that simple

As I said, I don't know.

But it's a wee of different to suggesting they'd been snow bound and in their box etc (if indeeed that what was said?)
 
Very good performance from Inglis Drever and I would take my hat off to him (if I had one).

I still think a mark of 172 flatters him (he beat a 161 rated rival by 5 lengths, so that suggests I might be right), but who cares about that anyway? I doubt we'll be seeing him in a handicap anytime soon.

I suppose it's the way he travels (or doesn't) in his races that puts me off him sometimes but, to use poncy management speak, I had probably ignored the elephant in the room - ie that he's a good horse.

One day he might get caught out by a slow pace, but that's not likely at Cheltenham. He's the best in the grade and I can't see anything beating him on merit in The World Hurdle.

I was a little disappointed with Blazing Bailey. He looked like he might be improving when he last won, but is now looking increasingly exposed as just below Championship standard.

I thought Millenium Royal was thoroughly unconvincing. Even when he joined the leaders travelling well at about 4 out, I wasn't confident. He has a very awkward looking head carriage and it just never looked like Pieux was going to get a tune out of him. I doubt I'll be backing him again.
 
I would say Blazing Bailey has improved and hopefully will continue to do so. The Drever is 3 years his senior and if Blazing Bailey can keep on improving in the way he has done then i think he will continue to get closer to Inglis Drever.

Inglis Drever is a fantastic horse and is a horse which often doesnt get the plaudits he deserves. Blazing Bailey ran a good race yesterday but just found 1 too good for him on the day.
 
I've had Blazing Bailey and Inglis Drever on 161 and 165 respectively for their last few runs. BB's improvement appears to have plateaued out on that evidence so it's difficult to imagine him ever getting any closer to ID.

The disappointing thing, though, is that 165 isn't great. Iris's Gift was 168 and Baracouda 171+. Deano's Beano would have been better than 170 at his very best too.

We're short of really top class stayers.
 
MWDS was not as god as a hurdler as ID is and he needs soft ground and does not look well this season.
Nothing to fear for ID.
 
Relks my sweet, I will raise a glass to you finally seeing the light!!! :D

Will the class all repeat after me - "Drever is a machine"......:D
 
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