Coming Back From A Break

[Simon]

I am looking into a little laying scheme that's about horses coming back from a break. Well, I've looked into it, and it works fairly well.

Of course there are some trainers who are very good at bringing horses back. What trainers would you avoid if a horse is coming back from a break? Not necessarily just a year break or whatever, even as little as a couple of months.

 

[J Alfred Prufrock]

I don't know the answer: why don't you tell us?!

Not quite what you are looking for, but there is something about "coming on for a run" on The Sceptical Punter website:

http://www.scepticalpunter.com/?p=945#more-945

 

[EC1]

I am looking into a little laying scheme that's about horses coming back from a break. Well, I've looked into it, and it works fairly well.

Of course there are some trainers who are very good at bringing horses back. What trainers would you avoid if a horse is coming back from a break? Not necessarily just a year break or whatever, even as little as a couple of months.

try Flatstats site Simon

 

[LUKE]

Out of interest how much research have you done Simon.Personally I don't believe in systems and don't believe they can be profitable in the long run.

 

[krizon]

That's quite an interesting point of view there, JAP, from the Sceptical Punter. He does briefly mention trainers getting horses (in particular 2 y.o.'s) ready early vs those who bring them only later, but surely by now we all know that the Hannon yard is virtually a 2 y.o. factory, where, while they'll all be out early, some may never come out again, and he's not given to waiting out slow-growers/late learners, and the like. They're expected to bounce out, win, and try not to fracture any bones before they win a couple more times and may never be seen out at 3, let alone 4. At that stage, if they're still sound, they're often away to other trainers and the 'coming on for a run' starts all over again. I can't think of the Hannon set-up as ever bringing horses back, because once they're busted, they're gone for good.

Conversely, there are other trainers who don't believe in battering the babies, and treat their youngsters individually, thus they won't all be required to 'come on for a run' as the instructions may well be to just take it steady and try out a different placing/riding tactic.

He's right about the inane prattle, though. What horse doesn't 'come on' for a run, unless it's unfit and shouldn't be running? They're supposed to be athletes and, like athletes, it's only by going at full competitive pace that they truly stretch their skills, mental and physical.

 

[Simon]

Thanks for that, it was an interesting read. However, I'm concentrating on handicaps, so 2yo's aren't really the area I'm looking for. I'm looking more for trainers who're known to bring back horses from a break, in handicaps, and win with them after their time off. Trainers to be wary of in this and who're well known to be 'able to pull it off'.

I haven't done a lot of research, as such, Luke, it's just something I've noted for the past few months, really.

 

[walsworth]

I cannot really understand what you are trying to achieve here Simon, are you aiming to lay horses coming back after a prolonged absence on the assumption that they are not fit? If so, be very careful, you may have to lay them at quite high prices and a couple of winners soon empties the bank.

 

[Simon]

Not particularly with an assumption they're not fit, just that I tend to notice a lot of horses coming back after a decent break that don't run as their price suggests they should. I certainly wouldn't be laying horses at particularly big prices, either. I am just looking for any trainers people think should be avoided in this - e.g. those who're good at bringing horses back and winning with them after breaks.

 

[rorydelargy]

Not sure I'd concentrate so much on trainers as much as types of horses Simon - I'd say there's a good angle in laying a horse which, for example ran well in several consecutive races over a shortish period (eg races came every 10 days), going up in the weights, and then had a break of as little as 6 weeks. There's a saying that form is temporary but class is permanent - just because a horse was in form 2 months ago, that doesn't mean for a second that it will be in that form after a short absence.

Clearly top horses will run in the contests which suit them, according to the calendar, but run-of-the-mill handicappers should be running whenever a good opportunity presents itself. If you notice a horse missing races it would have a chance of winning (and that's where the skill lies, of course) it's surely a sign that the horse isn't quite right or that the trainer is a muppet. Either way, those are good signs that you should oppose that horse next time you see it.

On the other side of the coin, I'm prepared to look twice at a horse which had been running badly and has been given a break, as there has been time to find and correct any problem the animal might have been suffering, and of course there tends to be a reduced handicap mark to take into consideration.

 

[Cantoris]

I adopt Simon's approach to laying in handicaps but tend to focus more on ground than breaks. If a horse wins three races on the trot on fast ground and then runs on slower ground, there is a decent chance it would underperform anyway even if it didn't have three penalties on board. What I tend to do is place lay these at, say 2.4 to 3.0. If they are going to be beaten, they will prob be out of the money altogheter. Take Gael Gra Mo Chroi last night. Wants ease in the ground but because she had won the last day she was one of the favs but 2.6 for a place on betfair. On very quick ground at Tipp last night, it's come from behind way of racing which works fine on softish ground was never going to work on quicker ground and she never made up the ground. I take a similar approach on breeding, always keepng my eye out for Captain Rio's when the ground changes one way or the other and similare stallions. I'm sure you can adopt a similar approach to horses coming back from a break but I think ground is just easier.

 

[Simon]

Thanks for those useful insights, chaps. It's always nice to read about different logics and learn different ways to look at things, which is important for a laying novice like me.

 

[EC1]

Thanks for that, it was an interesting read. However, I'm concentrating on handicaps, so 2yo's aren't really the area I'm looking for. I'm looking more for trainers who're known to bring back horses from a break, in handicaps, and win with them after their time off. Trainers to be wary of in this and who're well known to be 'able to pull it off'.

I haven't done a lot of research, as such, Luke, it's just something I've noted for the past few months, really.

like i said - Flatstats will supply you with all the information you need - which trainers do well after resting horses - which sires similar - in fact millions of things

just subscribe for a month..you'll never use another site re stats - its the best one by miles

 

[Gearoid]

Everything that won at tipp seemed to up or on the pace last night. I thought it was a track bias rather than the ground.

 

[Simon]

Thanks, EC1, I'll have a look. Is there a Jumpsstats?

 

[EC1]

Thanks, EC1, I'll have a look. Is there a Jumpsstats?

no not yet

for the info you want - its the best site - nothing touches it to be honest

you could check the sires record after a lay off as well as the trainer for tonights runner for instance..strike rates and Actual/Expected odds raings are available as well..very in depth site

 

[Cantoris]

Everything that won at tipp seemed to up or on the pace last night. I thought it was a track bias rather than the ground.

Either way, a soft ground horse coming from the back had no chance on both ground or track. Both being against her was just doubling your lay bet and in the place market you only need to get 2 out of 3 right to make it pay.

 

[Gearoid]

I'm not disagreeing with you I'm just wondering why being a hold up horse is more of a negative on unsuitable good going.

 

[Cantoris]

I'm not disagreeing with you I'm just wondering why being a hold up horse is more of a negative on unsuitable good going.

It depends on the horse and the track. Some tracks are harder to come from behind. You don't see too many coming from the back at the Curragh for example. And on quick ground around Leopardstown it's certainly a help to be on the pace. But then, if you have a horse with a lightning turn of foot, then it is more likely to be able to use it on fast ground than soft ground. With this mare, I think she needs to be ridden from the back because she is quirky rather than having a quick turn of foot. Soft ground stops the ones in front and allows her to gobble them up late. On quicker ground, they simply don't come back to her fast enough and her ability to quicken on fast ground only keeps her in touch with the leaders near the finish.

 

[Flame]

Often found laying favourites which have had more than 60 days since their last run makes a very profitable return.