Constitution Hill

Horse racing is risky but you have too bet risky at times especially a/p and a lot of talk about value.
So I'm taking the risk and I've done Constitutional hill 5/1 for the champion hurdle.
For me that is 5/1 is good value because if things changed and he turns up he will probably be odds on.
I'm willing to take the chance and hope both him and me make it to Cheltenham.
 
When big horses get problems they are more difficult to solve, owing to their size and weight.
NJH brought Sprinter Sacre back so hopefully lightning can strike twice.
Methinks he should have gone chasing; imagine the scenes after yesterday's race if SS was awaiting them across the pond !
 
The thing is his injury is nothing compared to what Sprinter Sacre had gone through so you would think he'd be back with a bang.

Constitution Hill hasn't run for a year come Boxing Day. The first thing that goes after a long inactive lay off is a horses speed but he actually hasn't been inactive that long and has been back and working for quite some time.

I can see no reason for the panic just yet. Sprinter Sacre's was off for 2/3 years before he retained his title and he wasn't a kick in the ass off his old OR when he absolutely slaughtered Un De Sceaux in his final sun at Sandown a few weeks later,

If Nicky does bring him back to full fitness he's going to make a lot of people look very silly
 
Outsider said:
Horse racing is risky but you have too bet risky at times especially a/p and a lot of talk about value.
So I'm taking the risk and I've done Constitutional hill 5/1 for the champion hurdle.
For me that is 5/1 is good value
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I read this with interest - yes, racing is risky, but I'm not sure you have to bet risky, or at all, ante-post, and there are literally thousands of other races to bet on each year.

I don't mind betting on whether a horse will handle a new surface, a new trip, a different type of track, or even simply be good enough, IF the price is right.

But none of the above applies to Constitution Hill.

This long-running thread is now all about his perceived well-being and the ongoing accuracy or otherwise of what his trainer says about him.

You've betting on chat, gossip, flannel, not what you can see with your own two eyes.

And what little you can actually see with your own two eyes is an appalling gallop at Kempton earlier in the year and a distinctly underwhelming one at Newbury just the other day.

"5/1 is huge IF he's back to his best" - yes, I know, everyone knows, we've all seen what he can do, but you're not just betting on his manifest superiority at his peak, you're betting on a whole load of subsequent imponderables that have arisen, many being reported on by a trainer manifestly clinging to hope because he's at an age where he will never have a horse like this again.

There may be better 5/1 bets running at Southwell, Sedgefield and Tramore this afternoon.

One last thought: I'd rather "look very silly" nine times, then back a 10/1 winner the tenth time - do the maths - than follow the herd.
 
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I went through this with Binocular when on TRF and they all said Nicky couldn't bring him back.....I backed him at 10/1 and 9/1 and the rest is Rock n Roll Then I took every penny that was available on Betfait abot 7 days before Sprinter Scare won his second QMCC so Nicky owes me nothing. I have 100% faith in him
 
Tbf that puts some context on it - if you're in front trusting Henderson more or less blind then it makes sense to carry that on.

I had a decent win out of CH at 3/1 ante post for his Champion Hurdle but thought 12/1 to never win another was too big so took that with a saver at 7/2 to win one more.

I personally think the horse has gone in the wind, had to have a wind op, and the Newbury footage gave me zero confidence in the horse so I'm happy to sit on my negative bets.

It is an entertaining long-running drama, though.
 
Not sure about it being entertaining. Whatever happens there will be folk saying I told you so. It's the way of the world. Most folk just await the next reason for him not running. He could just be very unlucky or he could be very fragile. Kempton is only a few weeks away and the champion hurdle around 15 weeks away so to get him firing on all cylinders in that time slot will be some feat. Time will tell of course and I hope he does run but then if he isn't the horse he was more folk will come out and said I told you so.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Tbf that puts some context on it - if you're in front trusting Henderson more or less blind then it makes sense to carry that on.

I had a decent win out of CH at 3/1 ante post for his Champion Hurdle but thought 12/1 to never win another was too big so took that with a saver at 7/2 to win one more.

I personally think the horse has gone in the wind, had to have a wind op, and the Newbury footage gave me zero confidence in the horse so I'm happy to sit on my negative bets.

It is an entertaining long-running drama, though.
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Nicky said " was delighted with the result of the wind op so no issues there"
 
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