Cracksman

brendanr said:
Good luck with that venture then.

Even if I have no idea today what this 3yo crop might turn out to be, I'll be amazed if there is a 3yo that can hang with Cracksman.
If there was some sort of betting market to that effect I'd wager a rare small fortune if the odds were fair.
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I'm not really in much of a position to comment as I missed the majority of last season so have no strong opinion either way tbh. But if you're prepared to say that some of the comments make good reading with your morning coffee it's best to stay away from putting together comments like "I have no idea" and " I'd wager a small fortune on it".

The two really shouldn't mix.
 
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Tanlic said:
The truth about Cracksman is he was beaten in both Derbys and had won only one sub standard Group 1 which was not good enough to be going to stud with considering who his pappa was.


Considering his owner is in his 70s, (old enough to remember Mill Reef, among others) may not be around to enjoy his offspring you can see why he would be anxious to keep Cracksman in training rather than rush him off to stud.

One of Paddy Mullins' last winners was a filly who won a hurdle; when asked his plans for her he replied " I cannot see her being retired to stud any time soon as her owner is well in his 90s !"
Having retired Golden Horn at the end of his 3 year old season the owner is well entitled to enjoy this horse for an extra season or two.
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dont think cracksman was the finished article in the first derby, he missed his preparation race and he would of won the irish derby if frankie was riding that
day in ireland and that sub standard group 1 you mentioned when he battered the other runners, most of them were multiple group 1 placed horses and
three of them were group 1 winners. the ground conditions didnt suit highland reel on the day, the manner in which he won the race was still exceptional.
 
Danny said:
I'm not really in much of a position to comment as I missed the majority of last season so have no strong opinion either way tbh. But if you're prepared to say that some of the comments make good reading with your morning coffee it's best to stay away from putting together comments like "I have no idea" and " I'd wager a small fortune on it".

The two really shouldn't mix.
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The two comments that you consider are actually very compatible from my point of view of someone who has been following and been involved with this sport in all manners and in many different racing jurisdictions for about 50 years.

In above case I am confident enough in my position because I believe that Cracksman is the type of horse that comes around not so often based on my own personal experience. So with that thought process the bet would make perfect sense. I've trusted my own eyes, numbers and in some cases personal contact information above all else for a very long time with very good success. But as in every venture I've gotten it wrong as well, sometimes spectacularly.

Something tells me that it won't be the case with Cracksman but time will tell. Let us see if he turns out better than Golden Horn who won the Derby and Arc for the same owner, trainer, jockey combo. I know where I stand.

It should tell you something if Fist trots out Mill Reef to make some sort of comparison, even if I have no idea where that comes from.
Mill Reef was definitely one of the true greats so to be mentioned with him in the same paragraph, that works for me, even if it was meant as a takedown.
 
For those that missed the point it was the Ganay performances I was comparing. One horse a real star wins doing handstands another is punched out to catch a somewhat moderate animal who went off at 80/1 and you Cracksman lovers think he's the next coming.....You're having a laugh.

I say it again he will not go through the season unbeaten and will be forgotten in a year.
 
The ride on COS makes more sense if a stallion deal has already been done between Op and the boys in blue for Cracksman
 
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Tanlic said:
For those that missed the point it was the Ganay performances I was comparing. One horse a real star wins doing handstands another is punched out to catch a somewhat moderate animal who went off at 80/1 and you Cracksman lovers think he's the next coming.....You're having a laugh.

I say it again he will not go through the season unbeaten and will be forgotten in a year.
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Cant see anywhere that anybody, except you, used the term "second coming" and you are the only one talking about an undefeated season so not sure what you are on.
 
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brendanr said:
The two comments that you consider are actually very compatible from my point of view of someone who has been following and been involved with this sport in all manners and in many different racing jurisdictions for about 50 years.

In above case I am confident enough in my position because I believe that Cracksman is the type of horse that comes around not so often based on my own personal experience. So with that thought process the bet would make perfect sense. I've trusted my own eyes, numbers and in some cases personal contact information above all else for a very long time with very good success. But as in every venture I've gotten it wrong as well, sometimes spectacularly.

Something tells me that it won't be the case with Cracksman but time will tell. Let us see if he turns out better than Golden Horn who won the Derby and Arc for the same owner, trainer, jockey combo. I know where I stand.

It should tell you something if Fist trots out Mill Reef to make some sort of comparison, even if I have no idea where that comes from.
Mill Reef was definitely one of the true greats so to be mentioned with him in the same paragraph, that works for me, even if it was meant as a takedown.
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That's a fair response Brendan. As I said I haven't too stronger opinion either way and at some point I really need to be catching up on last seasons form properly. My initial reaction to any good horse that everyone is raving about is to automatically take it on but that's just the punter in me. I certainly haven't been in the game as long as you but in my time I've found in general horses get over hyped and over bet so I don't mind trying to take them on.

I think just from a common sense point of view of if he couldn't dominate last seasons 3yo crop then then I'd struggle to see him dominating this years when he'll have all the weight allowances to contend with. I'm a believer in figures and if Des says that he's recorded above average figures for Cracksman then that's enough for me to accept that the horse has ability. At a quick glance though the only to figures he's produced are in the Voltigeur and the Champion Stakes with the higher being in the latter. Unless they have some sort of mark up they don't look that remarkable to me. The Champion Stakes performance although massively eye catching was run on what looked like pretty bad ground I'm always suspect about any performance on such a surface. Poets Word the second was turned over by Decorated Knight on its previous outing. Highland Reel who to my eye is the only genuinely reliable yard stick of sorts would of hated the ground and if memory serves didn't he go via the car park to the finishing line.

Whilst figures to me are the greatest assessment of a horses ability i.e the only true gauge of a horses ability can be the time in which he gets from point a to point b when ridden to maximum efficiency. There does come a time where you have to sit back and say what have they won ? I had horses like Rakti producing big figures on his day and as much as I loved the deranged bastid I couldn't rate him amongst a group of horses I hold as the elites. I remember Stone of Folca (a 90 something rated handicapper) breaking my stop watch at Epsom one time with the fastest 5f time I've ever recorded (that might not be the fastest but the fastest I've taken note of).

At the end of the day thus far he's won a Champion stakes and a Volitigeur impressively both of those with ground on the softer side. By all means he may go on to win a few of the top prizes the Eclipse, The Arc, Breeders Cup, and then maybe you could mention him in the same breath as some of the greats. My initial reaction as a punter would to be to bet against that being the case.

Time will tell.
 
ive only been looking a group 1 races for the last few years and from my experience you will always get people knocking certain horses at the highest level,
time and time again they will be proven more wrong then right in most instances and over the long haul.
 
Tanlic said:
For those that missed the point it was the Ganay performances I was comparing. One horse a real star wins doing handstands another is punched out to catch a somewhat moderate animal who went off at 80/1 and you Cracksman lovers think he's the next coming.....You're having a laugh.

I say it again he will not go through the season unbeaten and will be forgotten in a year.
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Think I may be missing the point Tanners, old bean. Your contention is that if Cracksman happens to be beaten in a horse race this season that he will be airbrushed from the annals of history and forgotten even by Messrs Oppenheim, Gosden and Dettori? Is that it?
 
I can't find my previous notes but on the day of the Champion Stakes I wrote:

I think Cracksman is a good thing and I can’t understand why he’s not top rated on ORs or RPRs but maybe I’m missing something. On RPRs, Highland Fling has to be the tentative bet at 12/1 although I won’t be surprised if Cracksman wins by a wide margin.
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I presume it was his win in the Voltigeur that led me to that conclusion but because I was looking for value in the outsiders I didn't back it that day but I do recall having it many pounds clear on my figures, hence those comments.

I think Cracksman was a relatively slow developer last year and likely to prove considerably better this time. I had him on 133+p for winning the Champion Stakes and can see him as a 135-140 horse this season. That kind of animal only comes along once every few years.

Or so you'd think.

But just as Mill Reef had Brigadier Gerard (and vice versa) to contend with, and Arkle had Flyingbolt and Mill House, and Kauto Star and Denman had each other, so Cracksman has Enable to tackle this season, with the fillies' allowance making things very interesting indeed as I have her on 127+p.
 
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A few comments.

Difficult to crib about such a performance but he does seem to me to be favoured by soft ground. I'd like to judge him after a tougher Gp1 on good to firm.

Strange comparison to Mill Reef's Ganay win in order to put down this performance. MR may have won by 10 lengths in '72 but he only did what he should have done (maybe that should have been the comparison). The 2nd that day failed to win that season and managed only a Gp3 a year later (his only black type win). The 3rd that day managed a Gp 3 two years later (his only black type win).

Cracksman's win sets the season up nicely for Europe's middle distance races.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think Cracksman was a relatively slow developer last year and likely to prove considerably better this time. I had him on 133+p for winning the Champion Stakes and can see him as a 135-140 horse this season. That kind of animal only comes along once every few years.
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With respect, DO, and despite your recent assertion to the contrary, it's been my experience - over many years - that truly run races very rarely contain a 'fastest final furlong'; the upshot being that the vast majority of such races lead to horses slowing down in the closing stages, yet here you are rating Cracksman on two races. neither of which turned out to be truly run
As i wrote after the Champion Stakes, Cracksman won that race with a burst of speed from a prominent position in the closing stages; much the same as he did on Sunday.
You're in good company though, as both the OH and Timeform elevated his rating without considering that factor, and look likely to repeat the feat after the Ganay.
Time will tell, but Enable has proven herself in truly run 12f races (Cracksman has yet to) and I'd still contend she'll finish the higher rated, should they ever meet in such circumtances.
 
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I'm confused, Reet.

It looks to me like you're implying I said that truly run races contain a 'fastest final furlong' more often than rarely?

It isn't something I recall saying or even suggesting.
 
Apologies, DO - that was not my intention.
The 'search' facilty on this forum remains a complete mystery to me, and I'm unable to elicit any response, at all, from it on the few occasions I persevere with a query.
I was alluding to a recent post of yours where you touched on viewing how horses finished in their races, though (with my usual ineptiude) I am unable to find it.:confused:
 
Could it have been when I mentioned that I used to watch VT recordings on FF to get a better idea of how races were panning out and which horses were finishing faster or slower than others?

Or mentioning Kelly Holmes's olympic races?

I do recall those discussions but it was to support the idea of horses not going faster at the end of a race.

This?

Desert Orchid said:
I've never heard of this, Danny.

Can I guess it means that some horses who appear to be making late headway are merely staying on as others slow down?

If so, it's a theory I expounded years and years ago. I came up with it after listening to Kelly Holmes describe how she won gold at the olympics. Toward the end of the race she looked for all the world like she was storming home yet she said immediately afterwards she was merely concentrating on holding her form (ie style of running). Shortly after that the TV analyst (Steve Cram, maybe) pointed out that she had run dead even 100m fractions for the last lap (therefore those in front of her had to be slowing down). It's something that's stuck with me for a long time.

Another angle I used to like checking out was by watching the race on VT on FF. So long as there was no horizontal 'noise' on the screen, you got a really good idea of what what and wasn't quickening. I suppose sectionals now tell you that more accurately but it gave me a head start at the time. Unfortunately digital recordings don't allow us to do the same thing anywhere near as well.
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Cheer, DO; that's the one - specifically the reference to Kelly Holme's even fractions. Don't know much about athletics, but - had that been a truly run race - she would surely have been slowing in the final stages?
 
Actually, that's an angle I hadn't considered. Would it not be possible to argue though that it was a true-run race in the sense that the others did slow (as a result of being involved in a true-run race) and it was her tactical nous that saw her time her race better?

I do suspect, on the other hand, that maybe in athletics it might be the 100% finish, to use sectional terms, that denotes the true-run race. Like you, I don't know much about athletics but I do like listening to the expert analysis from people like Michael Johnson and Colin Jackson.
 
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Warbler has some interesting thoughts and views on this subject. Perhaps he could come out of horse racing forum retirement to share his views. They are very much worth hearing. I'll drop him a quick PM.
 
Maruco said:
Warbler has some interesting thoughts and views on this subject. Perhaps he could come out of horse racing forum retirement to share his views. They are very much worth hearing. I'll drop him a quick PM.
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Is that like the talking horses version of the Bat signal.

Nahnahnahnahnahnahnahnahnahna Warbler!
 
brendanr said:
Cant see anywhere that anybody, except you, used the term "second coming" and you are the only one talking about an undefeated season so not sure what you are on.
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Well that's strange because when I remarked he was far from special you appeared to dispute that plus you have him as more exciting than the most impressive filly in years who is a quadruple Oaks/King George and Arc winner.

You're supposed to read the form book not smoke it:)
 
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