Craven Meeting

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gus

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It's good to see the Craven Meeting back on terrestrial TV this year although only two days are covered, Wednesday and Thursday, which means that today's fare is lower-key than the others.

It's a very decent card, nonetheless, although it's not easy to find a bet among the lightly-raced, well-bred types that crop up in most of the races. I quite like the look, however, of Strong Steps in the mile handicap at 3.30. There's no doubt in my mind that those drawn high who stayed high were at a serious disadvantage in the Spring Mile and Lincoln on April 1 and Strong Steps ran very well in the circumstances from stall 19 to finish 6th of 21 under a 7-lb claimer at 50/1 in the former event. It was his first run for eight months and his first start for Roger Fell since being bought out of Hugo Palmer's yard last October. Tony Hamilton rides today and the usual cheekpieces, omitted at Donny, are back on. It's not unreasonable to think that Strong Steps will come on for that run and he looks a fair bet at around 9/1.
 
Good luck, Gus.

Normandy Barriere looks to have a good chance in the 1:50 tomorrow.

I wonder if Kazimiera is a good each way bet in the Neil Gwyn also.
 
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Marble said:
Good luck, Gus.

Normandy Barriere looked to have a good chance in the 1:50 tomorrow.

I wonder if Kazimiera is a good each way bet in the Neil Gwyn also.
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Not had a good look at tomorrow's card yet but I see Brando is declared for the Abernant on Thursday. He's currently available at 6/4 but he's a 4/7 shot in my book against that bunch.
 
Marble said:
Good luck, Gus.

Normandy Barriere looks to have a good chance in the 1:50 tomorrow.

I wonder if Kazimiera is a good each way bet in the Neil Gwyn also.
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I fancy these two. I hope to see Normandy Barriere snatch the 1.50, but the Channon horse Moonraker, or Mont Kiera, are both possible dangers.

I figure its better to have a strong fancy, (knowing possible dangers), than just wishing ones selection, will hose up by 10 lengths, as I've done once or twice before.
 
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Not a bet but Berkshire might be interesting back down in trip in the Sefton. Should stay middle distances but races too keenly over a trip.
 
Diabolical run yesterday from Strong Steps.

Hoping for better today from Folkswood in the Group Three. His form looks solid and I just think he'll be suited by the way the race is likely to be run.

Natavia interests me in the 4.45. Expensive yearling, trainer in good form and he has her entered in the Oaks. He makes Classic entries very sparingly.

Away from Newmarket, Stradivarius must have a great chance in the 4.00 at Beverley off a mark of just 78. He ran really well behind Cracksman last backend in an excellent time and he's very well treated today on my figures.
 
I like Autocratic in the Earl of Sefton. Needs to find a bit on ratings but there's no one better at bringing a 3yo handicapper up to Group level at 4yo+ than Stoutey, and the stable is in fine form with some rare AW winners.
 
Perception is he doesn't like the track. It's possible though that he just needed further than 7f by the time the Dewhurst came around last year.
 
Euronymous said:
Perception is he doesn't like the track. It's possible though that he just needed further than 7f by the time the Dewhurst came around last year.
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War Decree just isn't the danger the market is suggesting. I'm very tempted to have a go at 5/2.
 
gus said:
Hoping for better today from Folkswood in the Group Three. His form looks solid and I just think he'll be suited by the way the race is likely to be run.
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What did you make of folkswood today, gus? I had arrived at the same conclusion and thought he could have won but for some reason kept changing his legs. Must have done so half a dozen times in the final five furlongs.
 
Desert Orchid said:
What did you make of folkswood today, gus? I had arrived at the same conclusion and thought he could have won but for some reason kept changing his legs. Must have done so half a dozen times in the final five furlongs.
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He was flashing his tail a bit in the closing stages too. Both signs of a horse that wasn't happy with something - be that the fast ground or the track undulations (or both).
 
Desert Orchid said:
What did you make of folkswood today, gus? I had arrived at the same conclusion and thought he could have won but for some reason kept changing his legs. Must have done so half a dozen times in the final five furlongs.
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I'm inclined to think the ground might have been a bit firm for him. He had the run of the race today and he'd acted well enough on the track when winning at last year's Guineas Meeting. To be fair, he was four lengths clear of the third and the winner is decent enough.
 
I'm firmly in the War Decree camp this afternoon. His form stands up and I've got him 3lbs ahead of Rivet.

The fast ground is a worry as far as Brando is concerned. I nailed my colours firmly to his mast at 15/8 earlier in the week and I'm happy enough with that but there's no doubt a bit of rain would have helped.

Castle Harbour is a horse that looked to be going places in the early part of last season but he's been disappointing since. Gosden's yard couldn't be in much better form which makes him tempting in the 7f handicap but Salateen looks a worthy favourite over this trip so I think I'll keep my money in my pocket.
 
i reckon Rivet's Guineas' participation rests entirely on his Craven run today,and he's likely fit enough to boss the pace here.
7/2, with a cover f/c with the fav, will do nicely.
 
Good luck with War Decree, Gus. I'd rather wait and see if it has trained on.

War Front's win rate is a superb 30% with 2yos, which includes 58 wins and 35 2nds. With 3yos and older, however, his win rate is 'only' 17% with 52 wins and 51 2nds.
 
Didn't have a bet but as a sentimentalist, I am delighted to see Frankel have a genuine Classic contender from his first crop. The length of time he took to pull up bodes well for him staying further too.
 
Lovely horse and if he were in a more prominent yard he would be much shorter for the Guineas on that performance. What's not to like about him? Out of all the runners he looked (on the TV at any rate) to be the one horse who would come on plenty physically for his run.
 
Yes, a very nice performance from Eminent and immediate post-race quotes of 14/1 for the Guineas were understandably snapped up. The time was good - 121 by my calculations which is better than anything Churchill has done so far. War Decree was very disappointing. Coolmore's representative apparently suggested he was badly in need of the race which is something we might have been told beforehand.

I thought Benbatl ran really well and wonder if 7f might be his best trip. Wouldn't write Larchmont Lad off, either - came out best of those on the far side. A mile might stretch him, too.
 
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