Crossroads approaching.

If my balance was dipping below ten figures for the first time I'd be quiet content to keep going.
 
SlimChance said:
If my balance was dipping below ten figures for the first time I'd be quiet content to keep going.
Click to expand...

Did I say ten figures? If so that was a typo. I meant ten thou (five figures).

It took me a long time to get it there and that was the 'margin' I'd decided once it got back down there there was the point at which I'd start to get worried. I've always been determined to walk away having something decent to show for all my efforts.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Did I say ten figures? If so that was a typo. I meant ten thou (five figures).

It took me a long time to get it there and that was the 'margin' I'd decided once it got back down there there was the point at which I'd start to get worried. I've always been determined to walk away having something decent to show for all my efforts.
Click to expand...

If you can spin up to 5 figures then there is no reason you can't win next year or any year. The game just evolves and you must too. I've said to you a few times I think don't think you maximize your edge, for example e/w multiples on Saturdays and festivals are missing from your strategy. I also think you side with bigger prices when you sometimes don't need to. If you are going to bet a big price horse in one of these big big handicaps it's a lot more powerful in an e/w lucky 15 than it is having a token 1/4 unit e/w. The days those horses click you need to having a multiple running for the lot!

If I were you I would look to start next year with a fresh outlook and not be so stuck with what worked for you years ago. Put aside 1k for multiples on Saturdays. Play a number of £1,£2 or £3 e/w luckys depending on how strong you card is and how lucrative the place terms are. You'll be amazed with how much this will add to your enjoyment and profit margin. It will also make you more enthusiastic to do a whole card because you'll need more marginal bets for the multiples.

If you want to drop me a mail any Saturday morning with you selections I'll let you know how I would play them based on the terms on offer with whatever bookmaker you have available. It doesn't have to be e/w either. If you have four horses at the front of market a win lucky 15 or yankee still compounds your edge. Whatever you do, don't quit!

P.S Death to you and all belong to you for making me write a ******* essay...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes. I've already been modifying my stakes for a wee while and/or backing each-way when I'd normally reserve that for proper longshots.

The decision isn't really based on short term results though. I've been conscious of sliding profits for at least two full years (amounting to several thousand pounds).

A bit of me wonders if it's the increasing importance of the festivals and mega-handicaps. The form really works there and I tend to do very well in the handicaps at the festivals. The only logical reason I can come up with is that in some of the good Saturday handicaps too many well-handicapped horses are keeping their powder on the dry side for an even bigger target and it's the ones genuinely targeting the Saturday races that are doing the business. I'll have these ones on my short/long-lists for the races but not alighting on them for betting purposes.
Click to expand...

There is no doubt this is happening. That's why the festivals are so important to serious punters. The old adage that a 4/1 winner at Hexam is as good as one at Royal Ascot is no longer the case. Most of us have no idea what price something should be at Hexam but at Ascot the form is there for all to see and the markets move just as much as they do on the fodder racing. Between myself and my partner (50/50 of the action) we won about 6k on the Tuesday on multiples. We correctly put the lot in play the following day. Where else were we going to get the opportunity to get that much on in multiples at best price, guaranteed odds and extra places? You have to up your risk appetite at the big meetings or you are missing out.
 
Dear D O, I would say have a break. Don't walk away for ever or make that decision yet. I fell out of love with going racing for a while for reasons won't bore anyone with, but really missed seeing those beautiful animals in the flesh, although had one at home who I loved with all my heart. The break was a good thing, so I would say have a break. I always read your posts with interest even if I don't understand half of them - that's me being thick and having a lack of knowledge - no reflection on your posts but would miss you if you weren't here, and your educational input :)
 
Great post from Slim even if it was over the 6 line concentration read.

It shows the beauty of a forum over social media. Long live the forum.

Evolve or die is as applicable to punting as any other aspect of life.

Plus I see you and DO now as an equine Mr Miyagi and Daniel son.
 
SlimChance said:
P.S Death to you and all belong to you for making me write a ******* essay...
Click to expand...

:lol:

SlimChance said:
If you can spin up to 5 figures then there is no reason you can't win next year or any year. The game just evolves and you must too. I've said to you a few times I think don't think you maximize your edge, for example e/w multiples on Saturdays and festivals are missing from your strategy. I also think you side with bigger prices when you sometimes don't need to. If you are going to bet a big price horse in one of these big big handicaps it's a lot more powerful in an e/w lucky 15 than it is having a token 1/4 unit e/w. The days those horses click you need to having a multiple running for the lot!

If I were you I would look to start next year with a fresh outlook and not be so stuck with what worked for you years ago. Put aside 1k for multiples on Saturdays. Play a number of £1,£2 or £3 e/w luckys depending on how strong you card is and how lucrative the place terms are. You'll be amazed with how much this will add to your enjoyment and profit margin. It will also make you more enthusiastic to do a whole card because you'll need more marginal bets for the multiples.

If you want to drop me a mail any Saturday morning with you selections I'll let you know how I would play them based on the terms on offer with whatever bookmaker you have available. It doesn't have to be e/w either. If you have four horses at the front of market a win lucky 15 or yankee still compounds your edge. Whatever you do, don't quit!
Click to expand...

Yes, as you know, I'm aware of the compound value of my bets but as I said earlier if I'm just not alighting on winners (or places for ews) I'm just throwing money away.

I might take you up on your offer re how to play the multiples as it isn't something I tend to consider other than maybe ew accs to can a mill if my luck turns. But there will still be that nagging doubt about whether I'm picking the right ones. It's bad enough when my singles don't win.
 
G-G said:
Dear D O, I would say have a break. Don't walk away for ever or make that decision yet. I fell out of love with going racing for a while for reasons won't bore anyone with, but really missed seeing those beautiful animals in the flesh, although had one at home who I loved with all my heart. The break was a good thing, so I would say have a break. I always read your posts with interest even if I don't understand half of them - that's me being thick and having a lack of knowledge - no reflection on your posts but would miss you if you weren't here, and your educational input :)
Click to expand...

G-G, I mean to cause no offence when I say there's a lot of femininity in that post. I thought you were a bloke?!

Regardless, it's a lovely message and struck a chord, especially since I haven't yet got over losing my wee pooch four years ago come January. As I said earlier, I've no intention of leaving the forum or contributing to debate. It's just punting I'm thinking of giving up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
:lol:



Yes, as you know, I'm aware of the compound value of my bets but as I said earlier if I'm just not alighting on winners (or places for ews) I'm just throwing money away.

I might take you up on your offer re how to play the multiples as it isn't something I tend to consider other than maybe ew accs to can a mill if my luck turns. But there will still be that nagging doubt about whether I'm picking the right ones. It's bad enough when my singles don't win.
Click to expand...

What's stopping you playing multiple horses in permed multiples?
 
Slim is right, it's all about the multiples these especially at the Festivals.

In 2015 I backed Blaklion in a novice chase at Cheltenham. He fell towards the end of the race and I forgot about the race eventually. Then I read a post you wrote a few months later trumpeting the winner of the race that day, Vicente, as a good bet for the 4 miler. So I went back and watched it again and got where you were coming from. He didn't win at the Festival but he was now on my tracker and found his way onto a very nice Scottish Nash/Champion Hurdle double with Ch'tbello
a few weeks later. So a belated thank you for that post DO and good luck with whatever future endeavours you undertake
 
If you were doing perms today there is now way you would have left out Frodon. He had the most solid look based on your ratings.
 
My brother was on the phone straight after the race. He thought I'd backed it even though it wasn't on my list of bets. He reminded me I'd said earlier this season I felt it was being trained for this race. I think it was its big run against Baron Alco that put me off. That represented further improvement and saw a further rise up the weights so I thought he was exposed. I now think, as I said in the race thread, that it was a brilliant bit of training by Nicholls. He's probably known all along he had a Ryanair winner that he could afford to hide in plain sight in these handicaps. The chances are Frodon was only half fit last time after all.

Yes, he was on the radar but so were so many others - and therein lies my problem.
 
Last edited:
An example. On Friday I played these horses in permed e/w lucky 15s.

Chelt

Jarveys Plate (Banker)
Magic Dancer (Banker)
Theatre Territory/Singlefarmpayment
Lygon Rock/Aaron Lad

Now the first two were turned over but Jerveys Plate at least placed after being bet into joint fav. SFM got beat a head which cost me a nice few quid and that's with both bankers losing on the day. The day the bankers win you give your self 4 combinations through the trickier races. What do I or you care what wins these races once we have them covered? Stop obsessing with nailing the winner, it's not the way to make money on these cards.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That's obviously the kind of angle that would never occur to me :(
Click to expand...

It is what I mostly use your ratings for. It's always great to know what you like in the harder handicaps for e/w perms. Obvioudly festivals are far better than normal Saturdays. In 2015 on the Thursday myself and Chopper on here pooled together our cash and did €3 e/w Lucky 15 perms on your selections. I'm sure I posted the full perm at the time and you were amused how shrewd a judge I was! We got through the first 3 legs with two places and one winner and a place(Call The Cops) in the County Hurdle. In the Brown Advisory we needed Champion Court or Rawmaq to finish in the 5. Rawnaq thankfully did and we clicked about 4 or 4.5k for a 1200 outlay without ever threatening the win part of the bet.
 
Last edited:
That rings a bell.

It's brilliant that somebody is benefiting from my work.

Wasn't that the day I backed Henryville at 50/1 (4th after hitting the front after the last) also in the Pertemps?

The problem I would have from that kind of bet is that it only represents a 4/1 return. I would find it hard to imagine it paying off more often than one in five times.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
That rings a bell.

It's brilliant that somebody is benefiting from my work.

Wasn't that the day I backed Henryville at 50/1 (4th after hitting the front after the last) also in the Pertemps?

The problem I would have from that kind of bet is that it only represents a 4/1 return. I would find it hard to imagine it paying off more often than one in five times.
Click to expand...

Yes. If that was now I'd have done a bigger perm and included him. Even for small money you can weaponise your ratings far better in multiples.
 
Sorry, Outsider, I wasn't sure if there was a joke going over my head somewhere...

Rock Choir is a burgeoning singing franchise.

People (95% women) pay to join a local choir led by a franchisee, usually an excellent musician/choirleader, and get together 1 x week, x 10 times per 'term' (school terms really) x 3 terms per year. Their voices are categorised (soprano etc) and they download the music ahead of the weekly gatherings and are taken through the chorals and moves at the meeting.

It is ridiculously popular and they often do major events.

Mrs O has recorded at Abbey Road with them and performed at the Glasgow Royal Concert Centre. the Edinburgh Festival, and a few other big places. Local choirs also do the odd flashmob event for designated charities.

Mrs O absolutely loves it.

Needless to say if I spent £300 a year on a golf membership or Sky subscription I'd get dog's abuse but since "it's only £10 a week - coffee money" it's somehow different :confused:
 
Last edited:
Back
Top