The reason we’ve endured the bleakest and dreariest of winters is upon us. I’ll be on course every day next week (...I’ll see some of you there). Much in the way of preparation and plugging those ante-post gaps in the next day or two, then we’re there! Rejoice... it suddenly feels like spring.
A few thoughts to join with yours in the meantime.
Summary:
Worthy favourites: Big Bucks (World Hurdle), Dunguib (Supreme Novices Hurdle) – I’m on both at 7/4 against and they appear to have very high chances of success, but at odds-on now they are ones to not back against rather than actually back. Place betting on bigger price alternatives is perhaps the strategy in these races for those that have missed the prices (see below).
Niggles with soundness aside Punchestowns (RSA Chase) has a great chance if he lines up. The main danger looks to be from his stablemate Long Run (although age and perhaps jumping ability are against that one).
Rite Of Passage (Neptune) looks like having very strong claims. If running in the Supreme Novices it would be a difficult call between him and Dunguib.
Tell Massini (AB Hurdle) looks the right type and should be very difficult to beat. Watch out for Enterprise Park though.
Good value: Denman (Gold Cup) second-favourite with an irresistible chance. At available odds he must be backed against the odds-on favourite.
Place bets: Karabak (World Hurdle), also Tidal BayandSentry Duty (World Hurdle), Get Me Out Of Here (Supreme Novices, alternative County Hurdle).
Each-way: Kalahari King (Champion Chase) has a chance against the favourite, standout each-way bet (although odds are shrinking). Riverside Theatre (Arkle Chase), very solid chance at around 10/1.Weapon’s Amnesty, each-way (RSA).
Peak fitness will be decisive this year (more than ever) as the preparation of many has been interrupted by extreme weather conditions. Those with a relatively trouble free preparation will benefit hugely.
Remember that each-way doubles and trebles on alternatives to your main selection is a good strategy for clawing back on losing single win bets.
DAY 1 March 16, 2010
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
5yos or 6yos tend to do best in this. The Irish tend to do well. Lightly raced horses excel with half of past 17 winners running no more than twice over hurdles beforehand. It looks as if Dunguib should not be opposed. Some have criticised his jumping, but if unspectacular he looks safe enough. Place betting or betting without the favourite recommended on the bigger priced selections. Get Me Out Of Here may be the best of the opposition to Dunguib, assuming Rite Of Passage goes for the Neptune (in which he is strongly fancied).
Shortlist:
Dunguib 7
Menorah 5
Rite Of Passage 6 ? (see Neptune)
General Miller 5
Bellvano 6
Pepe Simo 6
Quantitativeeasing 5 ?
Oscar Whisky 5
Restless Harry 6
Get Me Out Of Here 6
Blackstairmountain 5
Lush Life 5
Selections: 1) Dunguib 2) Get Me Out Of Here 3) Oscar Whisky 4) Menorah/
Blackstairmountain
Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
6yos and 7yos do very well. 5yos have lost the 5lb allowance they used to receive so are unlikely to do as well as in the past. Big priced horses tend not to do well, 8/1 or less is a good guide, but only two actual favourites have won of the past 17 renewals. Highly rated ex-hurdlers and French-breds do well. Riverside Theatre is fancied to land decent odds of around 10/1. Somersby must also run well and looks to be one for your each-way doubles and trebles. Long Run would be fancied here, but reportedly heads for the RSA Chase, where he is probably too short.
Shortlist:
Captain Cee Bee 9
Sizing Europe 8
Tataniano 6
Long Run 5 ? (see RSA Chase)
Somersby 6
Riverside Theatre 6
Osana 8
Sports Line 7
Cousin Vinny 7
An Cathaoir Mor 7
Selections: 1) Riverside Theatre 2) Captain Cee Bee 3) Somersby
WH Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m ½f
Shortlist:
Bensalem 7
Character Building 10
The Tother One 9
The Package 7
Selections: 1) Bensalem 2) The Tother One/The Package
Champion Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
Serious contenders should have won, or nearly won, their last race prior to the Champion and be the right side of eight, rather than older. Those that have won or been placed at the Festival before do well. A difficult race to call this year. Very open among first half a dozen or so in the betting. Binocular’s participation is in doubt, but if lining up should be right there. Solwhit has scoped dirty and is unlikely to make the line up.
Shortlist:
Binocular 6 ?
Zaynar 5
Solwhit 6 ?
Medermit 6
Punjabi 7
Celestial Halo 6
Khyber Kim 8
Starluck 5
Go Native 7
Voler La Vedette 6
1) Zaynar/Punjabi/Binocular 2) Medermit 3) Khyber Kim/Starluck 4) Go Native
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle 2m 4f
Shortlist:
Quevega 6
Voler La Vedette 6
No One Tells Me 5
Selection: 1) Quevega 2) Voler La Vedette
A few thoughts to join with yours in the meantime.
Summary:
Worthy favourites: Big Bucks (World Hurdle), Dunguib (Supreme Novices Hurdle) – I’m on both at 7/4 against and they appear to have very high chances of success, but at odds-on now they are ones to not back against rather than actually back. Place betting on bigger price alternatives is perhaps the strategy in these races for those that have missed the prices (see below).
Niggles with soundness aside Punchestowns (RSA Chase) has a great chance if he lines up. The main danger looks to be from his stablemate Long Run (although age and perhaps jumping ability are against that one).
Rite Of Passage (Neptune) looks like having very strong claims. If running in the Supreme Novices it would be a difficult call between him and Dunguib.
Tell Massini (AB Hurdle) looks the right type and should be very difficult to beat. Watch out for Enterprise Park though.
Good value: Denman (Gold Cup) second-favourite with an irresistible chance. At available odds he must be backed against the odds-on favourite.
Place bets: Karabak (World Hurdle), also Tidal BayandSentry Duty (World Hurdle), Get Me Out Of Here (Supreme Novices, alternative County Hurdle).
Each-way: Kalahari King (Champion Chase) has a chance against the favourite, standout each-way bet (although odds are shrinking). Riverside Theatre (Arkle Chase), very solid chance at around 10/1.Weapon’s Amnesty, each-way (RSA).
Peak fitness will be decisive this year (more than ever) as the preparation of many has been interrupted by extreme weather conditions. Those with a relatively trouble free preparation will benefit hugely.
Remember that each-way doubles and trebles on alternatives to your main selection is a good strategy for clawing back on losing single win bets.
DAY 1 March 16, 2010
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
5yos or 6yos tend to do best in this. The Irish tend to do well. Lightly raced horses excel with half of past 17 winners running no more than twice over hurdles beforehand. It looks as if Dunguib should not be opposed. Some have criticised his jumping, but if unspectacular he looks safe enough. Place betting or betting without the favourite recommended on the bigger priced selections. Get Me Out Of Here may be the best of the opposition to Dunguib, assuming Rite Of Passage goes for the Neptune (in which he is strongly fancied).
Shortlist:
Dunguib 7
Menorah 5
Rite Of Passage 6 ? (see Neptune)
General Miller 5
Bellvano 6
Pepe Simo 6
Quantitativeeasing 5 ?
Oscar Whisky 5
Restless Harry 6
Get Me Out Of Here 6
Blackstairmountain 5
Lush Life 5
Selections: 1) Dunguib 2) Get Me Out Of Here 3) Oscar Whisky 4) Menorah/
Blackstairmountain
Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
6yos and 7yos do very well. 5yos have lost the 5lb allowance they used to receive so are unlikely to do as well as in the past. Big priced horses tend not to do well, 8/1 or less is a good guide, but only two actual favourites have won of the past 17 renewals. Highly rated ex-hurdlers and French-breds do well. Riverside Theatre is fancied to land decent odds of around 10/1. Somersby must also run well and looks to be one for your each-way doubles and trebles. Long Run would be fancied here, but reportedly heads for the RSA Chase, where he is probably too short.
Shortlist:
Captain Cee Bee 9
Sizing Europe 8
Tataniano 6
Long Run 5 ? (see RSA Chase)
Somersby 6
Riverside Theatre 6
Osana 8
Sports Line 7
Cousin Vinny 7
An Cathaoir Mor 7
Selections: 1) Riverside Theatre 2) Captain Cee Bee 3) Somersby
WH Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m ½f
Shortlist:
Bensalem 7
Character Building 10
The Tother One 9
The Package 7
Selections: 1) Bensalem 2) The Tother One/The Package
Champion Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
Serious contenders should have won, or nearly won, their last race prior to the Champion and be the right side of eight, rather than older. Those that have won or been placed at the Festival before do well. A difficult race to call this year. Very open among first half a dozen or so in the betting. Binocular’s participation is in doubt, but if lining up should be right there. Solwhit has scoped dirty and is unlikely to make the line up.
Shortlist:
Binocular 6 ?
Zaynar 5
Solwhit 6 ?
Medermit 6
Punjabi 7
Celestial Halo 6
Khyber Kim 8
Starluck 5
Go Native 7
Voler La Vedette 6
1) Zaynar/Punjabi/Binocular 2) Medermit 3) Khyber Kim/Starluck 4) Go Native
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle 2m 4f
Shortlist:
Quevega 6
Voler La Vedette 6
No One Tells Me 5
Selection: 1) Quevega 2) Voler La Vedette
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