DAY 1 (and Summary) - Cheltenham Festival

I'd say the trainer is under pressure from the owner to run the horse, DO.......I just can't see how being beaten by Shakervilz and Major Finnegan is conducive to an Arkle tilt....Navan should actually suit him
 
Was at the racecourse tonight when Captain Cee Bee arrived, looks really well.

Dunguib has been over here since Friday apparently and is in a stable about five miles from the racecourse (think they may have done this last year) as he can be a little fractious.

As I posted on CH thread Simon Claisse, for whatever reason, has moved the last flight up the course and the run in is now only 160-170 yards, so if it's a sprint to the line you'd think Go Native's speed would count.

At the Festival Preview Carl LLewelyn was very very positive about Khyber Kim but there was a worry that he would have to buck the trend that previous winners had run (won?) in the same calendar year, KK hasn't run since December 12th.
 
I'm hoping Day One will be a day for favourites.

Supreme: Dunguib - Despite all of people trying to find fault with him, any horse that wins two grade 1's on the bridle has to be a very very good horse and I actually think even money, if you can get it, is a decent price. Yes he's beaten the same horses but Some Present has kept finishing second and other horses from the Bumper such as Rite of Passage (Jt Neptune favourite) Quel Esprit (Joint Neptune Favourite), Morning Supreme, Shinrock Paddy have all proven to be very good horses this year. Even Bygone's of Brid who finished 23rd has won a G2 hurdle!!! I personally think Dunguib would have won the totesport trophy on the bridle off a mark of 135 and whilst I respect GMOOH and Oscar Whiskey I think last years bumper form is rock solid and is the form to follow. Dunguib wins by at least 5 lengths imho.

Arkle: Captain Cee Bee - He might be a bit old and his jumping has a Kautoesque last fence feel to it I think he is the best horse in the race. He stays the 2 miles really well, has festival winning form and will have the champ on board. Somersby looks too slow for me although I think he will place. Sizing Europe, i've never got the hype about this horse, he simply won't see out the race. Riverside theatre, nice horse, but an Arkle winner? I don't see it. Outside of that the only horse I do like, and the drying ground is going to help, is Kangaroo Court. Lavelle has been tightlipped about this one but on good ground he is a useful horse and jumps really well so I will be having a few sheckles on him E/W.

Champion: Go Native - I've spent a long time looking at this and to be honest have almost ended up with Go Native by default. However he has festival winning form, has won two grade 1's well this season and his trainer is very bullish about his chances. Meade's festival form is a worry but I think after the years of anguish with Harchibald this could be the one. I like Khyber Kim but have a feeling he needs a fair but if cut to show his best over hurdles. I also think that the pace will not be crazy in the race because I don't think Ruby will lead on CH until about a mile out. Medermit would be the other one i'd be worried about but Go Native has beaten him before and I don't think he will get much opportunity to run at him after the last as I expect Carberry to be waiting to unleash Go Native's turn of foot. Hopefully he won't wait too long though.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Was at the racecourse tonight when Captain Cee Bee arrived, looks really well.

Dunguib has been over here since Friday apparently and is in a stable about five miles from the racecourse (think they may have done this last year) as he can be a little fractious.

As I posted on CH thread Simon Claisse, for whatever reason, has moved the last flight up the course and the run in is now only 160-170 yards, so if it's a sprint to the line you'd think Go Native's speed would count.

At the Festival Preview Carl LLewelyn was very very positive about Khyber Kim but there was a worry that he would have to buck the trend that previous winners had run (won?) in the same calendar year, KK hasn't run since December 12th.
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Interesting that they have moved the last hurdle. Some bravery is going to be required in the two hurdle races I suspect.
 
Given Dunguib's rather tentative jumping this could play against him more than most. Any loss of momentum at the final hurdle could prove even more decisive than usual.
 
Henry de Bromhead is happy with Sizing Europe ahead of the Irish Independent Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham tomorrow.

The eight-year-old goes to the Festival with an unbeaten record in four runs over fences, culminating in a Grade One contest at Leopardstown on Boxing Day.

“We’re pleased with how he travelled over and he seemed in great form this morning,” said the County Waterford trainer.

“It looks a really good and competitive race. Hopefully he’ll run well and give a good account of himself.

“The ground is absolutely lovely, they’ve done a great job on it.”

Sizing Europe is one of the six-strong Irish contingent among a final field of 12 declared for the two-mile novice chase championship.

Willie Mullins runs both Quiscover Fontaine and Sports Line, his brother Tom has Fosters Cross while Eddie Harty’s Captain Cee Bee and Osana complete their team.

The home brigade is headed by Henrietta Knight’s Somersby and Nicky Henderson’s pair of Mad Max and Riverside Theatre.

Emma Lavelle’s Kangaroo Court, Paul Nicholls’ Woolcombe Folly and I’m Delilah from Ferdy Murphy’s stable round out the field.
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Zaynar is too big for this now. I understand he worked poorly before his Triumph victory last year and I make him a solid each way bet.
 
Ogee at 16/1 is a good bet for me - think they've been a tad lenient with the handicap mark and IMO both he and Tazbar have run to their hurdles rating in the Feltham, he's improving all the time and has a very good record over fences with just the one defeat over fences. Only worry is his jumping but I'm sure Renee Robeson will have done plenty of work on that since his Southwell victory.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Ogee at 16/1 is a good bet for me - think they've been a tad lenient with the handicap mark and IMO both he and Tazbar have run to their hurdles rating in the Feltham, he's improving all the time and has a very good record over fences with just the one defeat over fences. Only worry is his jumping but I'm sure Renee Robeson will have done plenty of work on that since his Southwell victory.
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Agree with all that - lovely horse.

I have gone for Nenuphar Collonges (each way) at 20s, and will add Ogee and possibly one other.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Ogee at 16/1 is a good bet for me - think they've been a tad lenient with the handicap mark and IMO both he and Tazbar have run to their hurdles rating in the Feltham, he's improving all the time and has a very good record over fences with just the one defeat over fences. Only worry is his jumping but I'm sure Renee Robeson will have done plenty of work on that since his Southwell victory.
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I have a share in a horse with Mrs Robeson and her husband is an ex olympic showjumper so the horses there get a pretty good education! They're chase record is excellent as well and they have a low number of fallers. They want to run him in the William Hill as I think they're of the opinion he's a wee bit better than his current mark.
 
Aragorn said:
I have a share in a horse with Mrs Robeson and her husband is an ex olympic showjumper so the horses there get a pretty good education! They're chase record is excellent as well and they have a low number of fallers. They want to run him in the William Hill as I think they're of the opinion he's a wee bit better than his current mark.
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Thanks Aragorn - very good trainer. Would certainly share their opinion of his handicap mark, could look very well handicapped come Tuesday night.
 
Flat out will try and make the running in the first. He is there to get dunguib off the bridle. They are very sweet on Blackstairsmountain in Mullins yard and if there is one to beat the fav then this is it.
 
Garde in the CC and Somersby in the Arkle. Done Oscar whisky with PP in the supreme, but think the fav will win

Bensalem's jumping really bothers me...

CH? Well have been on Celestial Halo a while now and not really confident, but cannot really home in on anything else with confidence.
 
What's the Irish view on Quevega and whether she'll be in good enough physical shape to do herself justice. Her Punchestown form with Solwhit and Punjabi and win in this last year is so much better and more solid than Voler La Vedette's one piece of form, and if you could be happy with her condition she'd be a really good bet at 2/1. Are connections happy to have a run here and hope for the best, or would they only be coming over if she was in tip-top shape?
 
Well as the Voice of Ireland put it just now, "You've got to put the gun to the head sometime" so I'd say it's a hope for the best scenario and hope the injury doesn't remanifest itself during the race. Surely can't win this without a previous run
 
I think 2/1 is a more than fair price - lets not forget she was very impressive first time out last season just before Cheltenham. My worry would be she has reportidly not schooled that much due to a past injury but I think she is much the best of these in what is just a two horse race. This is not an "ordinary" festival race - its so poor a lack of a run is not a worry.

I have serious doubts about Voler coming up the hill over this trip.
 
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