Do bets @ BFSP influence the BFSP price?

[NH_Andy]

Looking for some advice please.

Been betting on and off for a decade or so and am currently enjoying a profitable run albeit minimum stakes.

Having always been a level stakes player, I reworked my spreadsheet to show the impact of using a variable 2% of my betting bank.
During this good run it would have increased my profit exponentially and consequently would result in bets up near £7,000.
This is all based on a theoretical staring bank of 5k (£100 initial bet) so I don't actually have a betting bank of 350k+ unfortunately.

However did this get me thinking as to the limitations of a very successful strategy.
Had I played with the stakes above how would I get 7k and possibly more on races continually? My average odds are 13.17 so the high street bookmakers would have limited me pretty quickly and as such all my results are recorded at BFSP on the basis that this is always attainable.

Which leads me to wonder if sticking 7k on BFSP before the off would have resulted in a lower published BFSP therefore skewering my records? I can't easily ascertain how Betfair lay off odds at an undefined BFSP and if the amount of liquidity unmatched on the exchange when the race commences effects the price. I thought the price was calculated on the amounts traded prior to the off which means any large bets would not effect the BFSP but if there is limited liquidity in the lay market then who is laying off the BFSP bet as Betfair presumably don't want to be carrying the can?

 

[smartpredator]

Stakes definitely affect BFSP. Not sure of the exact formula in use but I've run into situations where I place a bet at BFSP with a min price selected and the full stake has not been matched. And this is at relatively small stakes (<€50).

 

[Ian_Davies]

It's my understanding that it's a bit like a Tote - except in this instance it's determined by money wanting to back at various prices at BSP versus money prepared to lay at various prices at BSP, both often unmatched at the Off.

Check out the BSP of Noble Yeats versus the industry SP the year he won the Grand National.

Someone clearly wanted a significant bet and, for them, BSP was perhaps the only way to achieve it and with a degree of anonymity.

 

[NH_Andy]

It's my understanding that it's a bit like a Tote - except in this instance it's determined by money wanting to back at various prices at BSP versus money prepared to lay at various prices at BSP, both often unmatched at the Off.

Check out the BSP of Noble Yeats versus the industry SP the year he won the Grand National.

Someone clearly wanted a significant bet and, for them, BSP was perhaps the only way to achieve it and with a degree of anonymity.

With the amount of money in the market for the Grand National that must have been an absolutely huge bet.

In some ways then the BSP for an outsider is completely unreliable. It's questionable why Timeform publish it as a metric because if you wanted to put any serious money down then the BSP would be significantly lower.

Considering the frailty of the BSP and the reluctance of bookies to carry profitable punters how is anyone supposed to make anything other than pocket money?

 

[smartpredator]

I suggest betting into the market very close to the off time. If you aren't available to place the bets yourself you can easily automate it using bots.

 

[NH_Andy]

I suggest betting into the market very close to the off time. If you aren't available to place the bets yourself you can easily automate it using bots.

Just had a look at the 16:10 before the off. There is insufficient liquidity in the market on larger prices and I suspect this is typical of the humdrum midweek meetings. Would be lucky to get a few hundred on at best before decimating the price. I know that is typically fine for 99% of punters (myself included) but still a question mark on how you get close to published prices if you wanted to put down four figures.

 

[smartpredator]

You could employ runners if the prices are available at the bookies. I assume you don't have an edge at standard SP? (If you do you could open an account at every online bookmaker you can find and split stakes between them at SP.) BTW a betting bank of 50 points seems very small if the average price of your selections is 13.17?

 

[NH_Andy]

You could employ runners if the prices are available at the bookies. I assume you don't have an edge at standard SP? (If you do you could open an account at every online bookmaker you can find and split stakes between them at SP.) BTW a betting bank of 50 points seems very small if the average price of your selections is 13.17?

I tried something new when chatGTP came along.
Since 1st March I'm yielding 216.68% across 127 bets with a strike rate of 31.50%

I have absolutely no doubt that it is unsustainable but 50pts is ample across this dataset.

Ever the cautions one I won't up my stakes unless I'm still yielding double figures after 500 bets+ which is likely to be about 12 months away.
I will also recalculate based on ISP as it will likely be a combinations of the exchanges & online bookies to facilitate bigger stakes.

 

[smartpredator]

That is incredibly impressive returns so far but I'd still be very concerned about a 50 point bank at those prices. Personally, I'd want at least 1,000 bets before I'd feel anyway confident. Have you run any Monte Carlo simulations? Obviously, this is just my opinion. Long may your excellent returns continue.

ETA - if you are varying your stakes downwards during losing runs to always have 50 points in your bank well then that seems fine to me.

 

[NH_Andy]

That is incredibly impressive returns so far but I'd still be very concerned about a 50 point bank at those prices. Personally, I'd want at least 1,000 bets before I'd feel anyway confident. Have you run any Monte Carlo simulations? Obviously, this is just my opinion. Long may your excellent returns continue.

ETA - if you are varying your stakes downwards during losing runs to always have 50 points in your bank well then that seems fine to me.

Using ISP with flat stakes of 1pt the ROI is 140.58%. Using 2% of betting bank its up at 780.19%

The average odds will have reduced somewhat but I can't calculate now as have only looked up the winners. Had I started with £100 I'd have a betting bank of 99k by now but I am limited to what I can afford to lose. Aren't we all?

Agree, I would much rather prove it over 1,000 bets but that is going to be a couple of years minimum and I worry any edge I've found will be adjusted for. I will up my stake to 2% of my current betting bank (rather than current 1%) as I only risk eroding what I've already made and may help accelerate some accumulation so I can make hay whilst the sun is shining.

I don't have any experience with Monte Carlo simulations. My other option is to trawl backwards to prove the current method over a larger number of bets which I will probably make a start on. Thanks for your input

 

[LUKE]

It's my understanding that it's a bit like a Tote - except in this instance it's determined by money wanting to back at various prices at BSP versus money prepared to lay at various prices at BSP, both often unmatched at the Off.

Check out the BSP of Noble Yeats versus the industry SP the year he won the Grand National.

Someone clearly wanted a significant bet and, for them, BSP was perhaps the only way to achieve it and with a degree of anonymity.

Don't Push It was the opposite.

 

[Slim]

All these systems are great on paper but they aren't worth a bollocks if you can't execute them.

Find a way to get on at general price with BOG and you'll have as good a chance as any if you are backing enough winners.