Does this sound logical?

Desert Orchid said:
We all know all the imponderables.

Surely it's all about trying to find winners and/or horses whose odds are more generous than they should be, and for that surely it's important to have a close a handle as possible on a horse's ability. Does it really matter whether you do it by eye or by numbers so long as you're getting it consistently right as often as possible?.
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It all boils down to is the practiced eye can see things the clock doesn't register, which is an indisputable truth,imo.
 
reet hard said:
It all boils down to is the practiced eye can see things the clock doesn't register, which is an indisputable truth,imo.
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Of course it's true, reet, but it's also true that the clock can reveal things the practised eye can't see.

I often refer to Kelly Holmes winning the Olympic title. She appeared to quicken late and that's how the commentator - someone with a practised eye - described it at the time. It was only after the race that clock showed she ran each 100m of the final lap in exactly the same time while the others folded. In her post-race interview she said she was focusing n doing that rather than watching her rivals.

Steve Cauthen did much the same when he was riding and he's hailed as one of the greatest ever.

I honestly would find it difficult to believe, reet, that as good a judge as you simply looks at races in order to arrive at selections. If that's the case then I take my hat off to a genius.

(The brother is very good at it but he only bets £1/£2 a time in one or two races because he treats it as a passing interest.)
 
barjon said:
Reminder:

Fast horses can run slow, but slow horses can’t run fast :).
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Commonwealth Cup/July Cup.

Having watched the replay of the CC a few times and done some comparisons with other races run that day. I conclude that Little Big Bear ran an exceptional race from the front into a headwind and conversely Shaquille benefitted from missing the break and getting cover.

It's hard to measure how much of a headwind they were running into, but the two sprints had the 2nd and 3rd closest times to standard and both were won by horses that had a good degree of cover.

The best time to standard was the 1m4f race. A 1m4f ran faster to standard than a race full of potentially the fastest sprinters in the country.

This is very informative because it was won by horses that came from the back, the horses with the tailwind up their jacksie down the back straight, they also had the wind behind for a longer distance than the home straight, suggesting it was a significant breeze...

I think Live The Dream can be marked up a few Lb for his exertions from the front in that 1m4f race..

Worst of the cover down both the back and home straights, yet still only got pulled in late on...
 
Maxbet said:
Commonwealth Cup/July Cup.

Having watched the replay of the CC a few times and done some comparisons with other races run that day. I conclude that Little Big Bear ran an exceptional race from the front into a headwind and conversely Shaquille benefitted from missing the break and getting cover.

It's hard to measure how much of a headwind they were running into, but the two sprints had the 2nd and 3rd closest times to standard and both were won by horses that had a good degree of cover.

The best time to standard was the 1m4f race. A 1m4f ran faster to standard than a race full of potentially the fastest sprinters in the country.

This is very informative because it was won by horses that came from the back, the horses with the tailwind up their jacksie down the back straight, they also had the wind behind for a longer distance than the home straight, suggesting it was a significant breeze...

I think Live The Dream can be marked up a few Lb for his exertions from the front in that 1m4f race..

Worst of the cover down both the back and home straights, yet still only got pulled in late on...
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Kerdos (Very Brave) 2.35 York tomorrow ran a similar race to Little Big Bear, only getting collared close home by Rythm N Hooves, whom was beautifully covered up By Hollie...
 
Maxbet said:
Kerdos (Very Brave) 2.35 York tomorrow ran a similar race to Little Big Bear, only getting collared close home by Rythm N Hooves, whom was beautifully covered up By Hollie...
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In to 3/1 from 9's when posted
 
I read your post as suggesting it was all down to a gamble, that's all. Well done and all the best with it.
 
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