Donald Trump - First State Visit

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Hopefully Warbler will be looking in. PP are betting this to 200% but I think they have it priced wrong. Traditionally presidents start with Mexico or Canada but you get the feeling Trump will want to do things his own way. I also get the sense will ego won't allow him to go anywhere that not a victory lap.

11/4 Mexico - already been there and is looking to go ahead with building the wall
11/4 Canada - Trump and Justin Trudeau despise each other
4/1 Russia - February would be too early for this not least because of the language barrier.
9/2 China - Similar to Russia this is too big a step in February.
9/2 England - He has said in a tweet it will be a spring visit. March more likely.
9/2 Israel - This makes perfect sense to me. A meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu is the type of victory lap he will be looking for and while he changes his mind in a second he has alluded to a trip to Israel as early as December 2015.
12/1 France
12/1 Scotland - No chance. Same reason as England.
18/1 France
20/1 Brazil
20/1 India
20/1 Italy
33/1 Philippians - This is right field but is more likely than the odds. The Philippians is a US ally and a visit here would continue Trumps agenda for pissimg on the Chinese. Also both men speak English.
 
Not sure about the Phillipines. Last I knew Duterte had challenged Trump to a fist fight to settle their differences, and has invited Russia to guarantee their future protection in return for a presence. He's on about kicking the Americans out

I don't think Trump will go to Russia before Russia comes to him, and wouldn't be shocked if they settle on Iceland even for their first meeting. It's a hot one at the moment with Priebus seemingly indicating today that Trump's accepting that they did hack the DNC after all

Mexico he did on the campaign. Won't go back there. Canada is no value for a high risk given that Trudeau has been very critical

The two things Trump has been reasonably consistent on in his foreign policy has been a hatered of Islam and an anti Chinese stance. I would have thought, bearing the last in consideration, that South Korea or Japan should have been listed as two countries that could lay on a state visit at reasonably short notice. It also allows him to ratchet up the ante on North Korea. He's just got himself embroilled in an issue with Toyota of course and Trump does have a habit of doubling down

I doubt he'll go to Turkey, even though he seemingly admires Erdogan. Too dangerous and I think Trump is only brave with other people taking the risks

Israel is a strong possibility as I'm sure Ivanka and Kuchner will be accompanying given that she's taking over the office traditionally allocated to first ladies

An outsider might be Australia. Quite an easy one to do, and a nice platform to launch a broadside against climate change, and they were the first country to take/ make a telephone after his victory with Greg Norman acting as go-between

I would think India is a fair possibility too with Trump seemingly placing a big thing on trade. If you want one real wild outsider at what should be a massive price, try Slovenia. I'm personally of the view that Trump regards wives as expendable rather influential but if Melania Trump gets any say in it, I would have thought the home coming of the local girl made good is an outside possibility, the issue of course is that they aren't going to go Slovenia independently, but as part of a wider European gig, and those things take time to set up.

The Americans have just deployed troops to the Baltics in the last 24 hrs. Estonia is the only Baltic nation that meets its 2% NATO guideline. If Trump is prepared to do a meet the troops type of thing than Estonia, Poland and Germnay could be in play, with Slovenia possibly appearing as the first stop off. Logic tells me though that this kind of multi stop tour isn't on the agenda due to the time they take to arrange

EDIT - I note with a smile incidentally, that the British Foreign Secretary is meeting with the 'Trump team' today (best spin Downing St can put on it). He's been granted an auidence with Trump's daughters husband, and the former editor of Brietbart!!! Oh I bet he wishes he was Farage
 
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Off to the blazing Middle East under the protection of the agencies that he has been humiliating for a month. Wonder what the double would pay?
 
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There's no way he'll go to Russia before Russia comes to him. He will however want to go to the Kremlin at some point you feel. Have you seen all the gold and mirrors they have there! The amount of preparation that'll go into a Russia visit however will ensure that both sides need about 3 months prep at least

Ireland he's been to plenty of times. He'll chalk that up when he's in the UK

Canada is an obvious choice, but 3/1? He won't get a good reception in Canada and Trump won't want that (bad optics)

Israel might be on the backburner now that he's trying to relocate the embassy in Jerusalem

America's just deployed troops to Poland. Trump likes military things and the projection of power. Good photo op, and would be one of the few places in Europe where he might get a half decent reception. We've had it telegraphed that Theresa May and DT are going to rebuke Europe's NATO members this week about free loading. The Poles meet their 2% NATO guideline so they'd be acceptable politically. They could be a massive priced outsider, especially as Poland's ruling Law and Order party aren't too far removed from Trump politically (and are also currently in the process of limiting the freedom of the press!). He could also posture around the Baltic states on the same trip to try and arrest some of these damaging meme's doing the rounds about him being Putin's puppet. It would be a back handed snub to the Germans as well, who he seems to be falling out further with by the day. Visiting Poland even allows him to take a few cheap shots at German/ European history and the dangers posed by extremist ideologies! As I've noted elsewhere, Poland is also near enough to take in Slovenia so that Melania gets how own state visit. I think Slovenia is unlikely to be a 'first stop' but it seems inconceivable that he won't visit at some time, but will need to do so as part of a wider tour. If he makes eastern Europe his first destination, then Slovenia has to be on the cards, it just depends on the sequence they choose to do things in

There's a lot of favourable trade winds behind Poland I reckon, but whether they could set it up quickly enough to make it the 'first' rather than just an 'early' one, is less clear, and multiple states take even more organising. I doubt Poland could really justify a state visit in isolation. For this reason I'm inclined to still think Japan would be in play

His other buring issue that seems to be gathering momentum is China of course. It's possible that he can use Japan as a platform to attack them from, but then again he might choose a country he wants to develop trade links with and who is also aligning on an anti-Chinese agenda;India. I'm just not completely sure however that Trump 'does' India, and again there's a logistical issue about going half way round the world, not to mention he's on a natural conflict with out sourcing IT with them and H1-N visas (or whatever they're called?)
 
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It's a stupid idea anyway. No upside and plenty of downside. I suspect he will rule it out when diplomats explain how their work will be compromised not being in the diplomatic quarter of Tel Aviv. They'll be out the loop and effectively holed up in a compound never knowing if they dare leave it!

Until he rules it out though, can he go there? And if he does, can he go there? Having said that, there's rarely a good time to visit Israel and get away without attracting controversy
 
Trump's invited Modi to visit the US, so that probably rules out India

I've got a sneaking feeling actually that Trump might not do many overseas visits. Unlike some Presidents coming to office (and I'm thinking of George W "I went to Mexico for a holiday once" Bush), Trump has already done a lot of international travel. It might not have the allure for him.

He's already sending out plenty of signals of being an isolationist, which would also cut down on his air miles. He's pretty well hated in most parts of the world anyway, so will doubtless just generate protest after protest, when he's clearly someone who gets off on adulation. Also international flight eats up time and becomes a distraction. I'm not sure this sits well with Trump.

I'm reminded of something that Kasich allowed to go into the public domain when he was being sounded out for the VP job. Trump's team gave Kasich a list of the responsibilities that Kasich would be given. It was impressive. Kasich would have more official authority than any VP in history (albeit Cheney might have had more influence). In fact it was so impressive that Kasich eventually enquired just what exactly Trump would be doing? He was told "making America great again". Initially I interpreted this to mean he'd be flying round the world getting the royal treatment and lining up state banquets, guards of honour, and 64 gun salutes. I'm now inclined to think that his focus might be disproportionately domestic instead. I'm probably tending to the view that he'll only do the state visits to countries he sees a benefit in visiting rather than the diplomatic courtesy ones (don't waste my time etc), and only if they can lay on a high level of first world ceremony

Trump hasn't shown any great intellectural curiousity or any depth what so ever for foreign policy. He seems more comfortable on domestic issues and its entirely possible that as he closes America off from the world, this is where he'll concentrate. That being so, some of the traditional first stop destinations for a President might not apply

Pencil France in for 2018 incidentally (Ryder Cup!)
 
Any thoughts on what Don thinks of General Musharaf and the Pakistani's, Alun? With the CIA being matey with the Pakistani's, and Don not liking the CIA, what's your analytical breakdown of relations between these two? Does anyone actually know what goes down Pakistan these days?
 
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Warbler said:
Trump's invited Modi to visit the US, so that probably rules out India

I've got a sneaking feeling actually that Trump might not do many overseas visits. Unlike some Presidents coming to office (and I'm thinking of George W "I went to Mexico for a holiday once" Bush), Trump has already done a lot of international travel. It might not have the allure for him.

He's already sending out plenty of signals of being an isolationist, which would also cut down on his air miles. He's pretty well hated in most parts of the world anyway, so will doubtless just generate protest after protest, when he's clearly someone who gets off on adulation. Also international flight eats up time and becomes a distraction. I'm not sure this sits well with Trump.

I'm reminded of something that Kasich allowed to go into the public domain when he was being sounded out for the VP job. Trump's team gave Kasich a list of the responsibilities that Kasich would be given. It was impressive. Kasich would have more official authority than any VP in history (albeit Cheney might have had more influence). In fact it was so impressive that Kasich eventually enquired just what exactly Trump would be doing? He was told "making America great again". Initially I interpreted this to mean he'd be flying round the world getting the royal treatment and lining up state banquets, guards of honour, and 64 gun salutes. I'm now inclined to think that his focus might be disproportionately domestic instead. I'm probably tending to the view that he'll only do the state visits to countries he sees a benefit in visiting rather than the diplomatic courtesy ones (don't waste my time etc), and only if they can lay on a high level of first world ceremony

Trump hasn't shown any great intellectural curiousity or any depth what so ever for foreign policy. He seems more comfortable on domestic issues and its entirely possible that as he closes America off from the world, this is where he'll concentrate. That being so, some of the traditional first stop destinations for a President might not apply

Pencil France in for 2018 incidentally (Ryder Cup!)
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Is there any reason the UK wouldn't be his first visit?
 
As a cover bet against an inactive President who can't be arsed with state visits to countries he has no interest in? It's possible. You know you have a runner in the field at least with the UK.

We also know that he's been laying out his terms and saying that he wants more ceremony than Obama. He's specifically asked to take tea with Queen (because his mother admired her greatly) and has enquired about playing 9 holes on her private course at Balmoral (with her watching apparently!). Well at least he hasn't asked her to caddie! It's also been suggested that Boris Johnson will give him a tour of Churchills war rooms (Trump's a big Churchillian it transpires)

I think the Queen goes to Balmoral in September? but I'm not really sure the 9 hole golf is a goer anyway. If we are talking about September though, you'd have to think he'll manage at least one state visit in between.

Mind you the Queen's not been in great health recently, perhaps time is a consideration!

Also the R&A has to confirn Turnberry for 2021 and Nicola Sturgeon has to move some windfarms from Balmedie before we get his full support
 
Marble said:
Any thoughts on what Don thinks of General Musharaf and the Pakistani's, Alun?
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Musharaf hasn't been running Pakistan for a few years now (albeit you might argue he never did of course)

Marble said:
Does anyone actually know what goes down Pakistan these days?
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Urm ... Don't look where the rain falls necessarily. Look where the river flows. I wouldn't be shocked if we get an admission about something in the next few years
 
SlimChance said:
11/4 Mexico - already been there and is looking to go ahead with building the wall
11/4 Canada - Trump and Justin Trudeau despise each other
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Are we assuming that Mexico's odds are on the drift a bit?

I'm also assuming that Canada is going to be forced to ask for time to consider their position given the ramifications for NAFTA
 
They've suspended the market which is disappointing give they've made a complete bollocks of pricing and trading it.
 
We knew that was coming. Trump invited himself really, but this is what the Royal family is for, and however unpalatable it is, we've gotten ourselves into a Faustian pact now. I note that the French have started calling us names today!

I'm not sure continental Europe had fully grasped the degree to which Trump might be prepared to enter this on the side of the UK. If he throws in with the vigour that the likes of Ted Malloch are suggesting he's prepared to, then the EU has a problem. Picking a fight with the UK and trying to punish them is one thing, picking one with the United States is quite another. Every time another German politican denounces Trump (and its seemingly a daily occurence) the likelihood of this inceases. At least they can draw some comfort from the fact that he isn't a thin skinned, grudge bearing, petty minded, unstable individual with a capacity to personalise everything ... oh but wait
 
A shame the market is gone. I fancied getting a chunk out of it the way they were trading it.
 
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