Doncaster Lincoln

Desert Orchid said:
This was on my mind too until I watched the replays of the last few years the other evening.

The trend now seems to be to converge in the centre soon after the start and gradually edge nearside but not all the way. It seems jockeys (and trainers?) have agreed it's best not to split and leave it for the 'best' horse to win.

Again, I read somewhere that nothing higher than 17 has won lately but plenty have gone very close so I wouldn't read anything into that either.

So I really don't think draw is that big a deal anymore. (So watch them split into three groups with one leaving the other two for dead.)
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Since the straight course had the drainage sorted, there's been little point in vying for the best ground as it's pretty even right across, and (like York and Ascot, for the same reason) any significant ground bias is purely apochryphal.
Having said that, Secret Brief would be my idea of the winner, but has a lousy draw (for a hold-up horse).
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm looking at the likes of You're Fired, Udododontu, Mutarakez, Bravo Zolo, Storm Rock and Secret Brief as a short list.
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I've dumped Udododontu (ground/price) and Bravo Zolo (price) and stuck with the rest with a little sickness insurance on old Ocean Tempest.
 
Man Of Harlech. 1 pt e/w. Available at 16/1. (Generally available, 1/4 odds first 5)
Secret Brief. 1 pt e/w. Available at 20/1. (Bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)
A high class renewal but it means that the handicap is very compressed, with just eight pounds separating top and bottom weights. Much is made of the draw and the normal consensus is that a middle or low draw is required. However, it may not pay to get too hung up about it and the selections are Secret Brief and Man Of Harlech. For such a big field there doesn't seem to be much in the way of blistering early pace but, due to it's size, there should be enough to ensure an honest gallop. Secret Brief (Stall 22) has been in Dubai for his last two starts and it was the last of them that caught the eye. Slowly away from an unhelpful draw he had to race wide into the straight but kept on all the way to the line. He was just under a length behind stablemate Udododontu, who enjoyed a much simpler passage, and they re-oppose here on the same terms. He still has to prove he handles soft ground, he was last of six the only other time he encountered it, but he has won and been placed on the two occasions he has raced on G/S ground. Man Of Harlech is drawn on the opposite side of the course in stall 3. He has been running well on the A/W but finished his turf campaign with a two length 4th of the 34 runners in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket in September. He is nine pounds higher on this return to turf but he has improved on the polytrack in the interim and still has the potential to progress further. His victories on turf have come on G/S and Soft ground so conditions here will hold no terrors. The hood in which he seemed to settle well with last time out is retained and so is his partnership with Oisin Murphy.

Also have to respect DO's selection Ocean Tempest. The word is he's back to something like his old self at home and if that were the case he'd have a big chance. Frankie could be the ideal pilot for him as well. You're Fired is also a player on this ground.




 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm looking at the likes of You're Fired, Udododontu, Mutarakez, Bravo Zolo, Storm Rock and Secret Brief as a short list

...

I've dumped Udododontu (ground/price) and Bravo Zolo (price) and stuck with the rest with a little sickness insurance on old Ocean Tempest.
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Happy enough with that but wasn't when Bravo Zolo looked like holding him briefly!

Well done Reet Hard & Ricko too!

(And not bad for a statistically impossible draw... :whistle:)
 
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Cheers DH. I hope they dump Geoff Banks from the morning line now. Apparently it was absolutely impossible for anything to win from that draw. Clown.
 
Ricko said:
Man Of Harlech. 1 pt e/w. Available at 16/1. (Generally available, 1/4 odds first 5)
Secret Brief. 1 pt e/w. Available at 20/1. (Bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)
A high class renewal but it means that the handicap is very compressed, with just eight pounds separating top and bottom weights. Much is made of the draw and the normal consensus is that a middle or low draw is required. However, it may not pay to get too hung up about it and the selections are Secret Brief and Man Of Harlech. For such a big field there doesn't seem to be much in the way of blistering early pace but, due to it's size, there should be enough to ensure an honest gallop. Secret Brief (Stall 22) has been in Dubai for his last two starts and it was the last of them that caught the eye. Slowly away from an unhelpful draw he had to race wide into the straight but kept on all the way to the line. He was just under a length behind stablemate Udododontu, who enjoyed a much simpler passage, and they re-oppose here on the same terms. He still has to prove he handles soft ground, he was last of six the only other time he encountered it, but he has won and been placed on the two occasions he has raced on G/S ground. Man Of Harlech is drawn on the opposite side of the course in stall 3. He has been running well on the A/W but finished his turf campaign with a two length 4th of the 34 runners in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket in September. He is nine pounds higher on this return to turf but he has improved on the polytrack in the interim and still has the potential to progress further. His victories on turf have come on G/S and Soft ground so conditions here will hold no terrors. The hood in which he seemed to settle well with last time out is retained and so is his partnership with Oisin Murphy.

Also have to respect DO's selection Ocean Tempest. The word is he's back to something like his old self at home and if that were the case he'd have a big chance. Frankie could be the ideal pilot for him as well. You're Fired is also a player on this ground.
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NOW!!! this is what I call an excellent post. A medium sized explanation and reason why with a selection or 2 if you like at the end of it.

Congrats on a nice win Ricco. Well done to Reet and to DO who I assume showed a small profit
 
Jonny Cavagin (1.50 Donny) form figures on first run of season - 0121
Won this race last year,2nd(on soft ground)the year before.

Treasury Notes (5.15) 2nd at Redcar lto in similarly atrocious ground, he should relish this from off the pace

I'll give a small shout to Kinglami in this ground in the 3.30.
 
Tanlic said:
.. and to DO who I assume showed a small profit
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1 pt win Storm Rock 14/1 (sp 10/1); ½ pt win Secret Brief 18/1 (sp 12/1); ½ pt win Mutarakez 10/1 (sp 7/1); ½ pt win You’re Fired 20/1 (sp 16/1); ¼ pt win Ocean Tempest 20/1 (sp 16/1)

2.75pts out
9.5pts in
6.75pts profit on the race

I'll let those who celebrate even-money winners decide whether that's a small profit or not :)

(And beat the sp with every one.)
 
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Yes. It's maybe a topic for discussion on its own: to dutch or not to dutch.

It's nothing scientific on my part. I tend to look for value odds about ones I think have better chances than their odds.

I often bet more than one in a race.
 
fonz said:
I had a few quid E/W on Ocean Tempest at 40s yesterday
3lb below the mark when he won it 2 years ago and Frankie's booked for the ride
One to watch over the coming weeks is Gabriel's Kaka who is so well handicapped he didn't even make the cut for the Spring Mile!
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Gabriels Kaka runs today in a 1m h'cap at Haydock off 90 having run 2nd and 6th in the previous 2 runnings of this off 11 and 10lbs higher respectively, This however looks a better race than the last 2 runnings so I've had a saver on Express Himself who was making some serious headway in the Lincoln but just tired in the ground to finish 7th.
Wilde Inspiration is also in my tracker a previous winner of the race but I'll be leaving him alone on account of the better quality of the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
You do know GK won the Spring Mile last week at a nice price?
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Yes I didn't back him though, on the sand in a small field didn't fill me with confidence and he still looks nicely handicapped.
 
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Euronymous said:
I had Express Himself on my tracker since his first run last season at Pontefract. Took him off after he was beaten over 10f at Donny and then again in the Cambs. He then won at Haydock over a mile despite losing three lengths at the start (he is prone to this but only really badly at Haydock, lost the same amount in the summer with Moore onboard before collaring Birdman on the line.) Eight pounds up from that win in October seems a lot but he did so well to win given his start and the steady gallop. He stays further than a mile so the ground isn't an issue. Anything over double figures is worth taking.
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EH travelled like the best horse in the race at Donny, the ground found him out ultimately and at Haydock today he has his optimum conditions. Will need luck in running obviously.
 
I had a close look at the race the other evening and decided to leave it alone.

If you put a gun to my head I'd suggest the Stoute horse as the least exposed and most likely improver.
 
Euronymous said:
EH travelled like the best horse in the race at Donny, the ground found him out ultimately and at Haydock today he has his optimum conditions. Will need luck in running obviously.
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I thought of you Euro when looking through the Ripon card last night-Saigon City declared to run in the 2.40 over 2m.
 
Yeah, he was also declared for a 2m race on that Newbury card that got called off. I don't know anything about his new trainer (is he related to Tony?) and am nonplussed about this stepping up in trip. At least his mark should come down.
 
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