Doncaster Skybet Chase

M

Marb

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This looks a competitive handicap chase at this moment in time. I've been keeping an eye on Long House Hall the past few days and Harry Skelton is marked down on The Racing Post as riding him, but it seems he doesn't want too much cut in the ground, so I think anyone backing him needs to wait at least until final declarations baring in mind the ground is soft now.

Neil Mulholland has Pilgrims Bay and The Young Master entered up. I reckon the latter could be a player off such a low weight.

Long House Hall and The Young Master against the field for me atm. If I had to back something now it would definitely be The Young Master.

Any ideas anyone?
 
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One of my favourite handicaps of the season on one of my favourite punting tracks, Looking forward to it.
First thing I look for in this particular race are what I view as classy horses stepping up in trip or in the early stages of stepping up in trip.
My two on that front are Lami Serge obviously who looks a superb E/W bet but let's face it doesn't like winning very often.

Vibrato Valtat is the other one, rated 161 at his peak he was down to a mark of 145 stepped up to 3 mile for the first time here at Doncaster last month where he probably should have won but was nailed close home by a horse he was giving 16lbs to, He's gone up a few lbs for that but is still very well handicapped and has the right kind of profile for me here.
 
I've done a first trawl through the figures.

I'm going to keep my powder dry for the time being as the weather looks uncertain. I was all over LHH like a rash for the Massey-Ferguson but he was self-certificated on the morning. He had, though, been withdrawn twice before due to 'unsuitable [soft] ground' and on his only try at the trip over hurdles appeared not to get home. I still like the horse but I don't want to throw away ante-post money should it rain a lot.

There are a few others I have well handicapped but with running plans unclear this early in the week and prices not generous enough for my liking, I'm happy to hold off until the picture clears up a bit.
 
Agreed, quite a few trainers pinpoint this race because of Doncaster normally providing good ground, so logic says if it does turn up as a bog by Saturday there'll be more than a few non runners.
 
LUKE said:
Will L'ami Serge really use this as a prep for Stayers Hurdle-very unlikely in my opinion.
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I'm honestly not sure, Luke.

Jacob is currently jocked-up on Munir/Souede horses at both Cheltenham and Doncaster this weekend, which isn't much help.

It's possible that the priority is for Jacob to ride Sceau Royal at Donny, and - given they have Wholestone to represent them in the Cleeve - connections figured they might as well run L'Ami Serge in the chase, so that Jacob could take the ride on him too.

It is undoubtedly a bizarre prep for the Stayers though.
 
LUKE said:
Will L'ami Serge really use this as a prep for Stayers Hurdle-very unlikely in my opinion.
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Positive updates on his recent schooling came from Daryl Jacob yesterday and today, Its certainly not a textbook warm up for the Stayers but it'll probably suit the horse no worse than a run in the Cleeve Hurdle will in that at least it doesn't give him a dress rehearsal in dogging the race at Cheltenham.
I think he'll run at Doncaster good ground permitting and be dropped out the back and creep his way round and finish either 2nd or 3rd, he could and probably should win the race but more than likely won't.
 
From Jacobs comments looks like Skybet chase. I've backed him but don't trust him. Think it may be more to with trainers championship as they have Thomas Campbell for the Cleeve.
 
Henderson must be desperate to throw some darts at the Stayers considering how wide open it is and that he has the three favs for the other championship races.

History beckons.
 
It would be an unprecedented preparation for a Stayers Hurdle-look at his races over the last 12 months -County Hurdle,Scottish Champion,Sandown ,couple of runs at Auteuil followed by a couple of runs at Ascot.I would say his profile is progressive and he could easily get placed in the Stayers.So why use the sky bet as a prep -doesn't make sense unless they are thinking in terms of a handicap chase at the festival.
 
He'll need to be given a great ride from the back, but I'm really keen on Pilgrims Bay. Think he ticks most boxes you need for this race. Had a few quid on him already.
 
Daryl Jacob to ride BDM and Wholestone at Cheltenham on Saturday and Lami' Serge now quoted as "50/50"to run in either the Skybet or the G3 2m5f race at Cheltenham.
Sceau Royal runs at Doncaster and will ridden by Wayne Hutchinson.
 
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Thanks, fonz.

I noticed yesterday that L'Ami Serge was also entered at Cheltenham, and he looked very appealing at 14/1, but I swerved it, given all the indications were that Jacob would partner him (and Sceau Royal) at Doncaster. It might be the case that someone else will step-in for SR at Donny, as he is pretty-much a penalty-kick, with Jacob going to Cheltenham to take three rides on BDM, Wholestone and L'Ami Serge.

Most of the firms have reacted fully to this potential, and L'Ami Serge is now hovering around the 5/1 mark for the Trials race; though Stand James and Victor appear unconcerned (or asleep), and have him at 10/1 - a price I have availed myself off, with the latter.

I've also chanced £7 at average 386 about L'Ami Serge in the Ryanair, just in case he puts-up a bold show in the Cheltenham race, and/or Wholestone does the same in the Cleeve. If Wholestone looks to have a live chance in the Stayers, they might just swing L'Ami across to the Ryanair (might be a reason why his prep for the Festival is over fences rather than a much-more obvious outing in the Cleeve). Worth exploring at the price, anyway.
 
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You've got L'ami Serge going over fences to prep for the Stayers and then there's Presenting Percy going back over hurdles tomorrow in a prep for the RSA. Some odd campaigning this year (see Finnans Oscar).

That Galmoy looks a hot race tomorrow.
 
Tomorrow is the biggest days racing of the year in the Southeast of Ireland -would be a big day for the Mullins family -as I see it Bacardys will be ridden quietly and will be running on when everything else has cried enough and Montalbano could get his act together in the nervous chase.Small each way double for me-unless someone can recommend something filthy each way at Meydan.
I know this has nothing to do with sky bet chase.
 
Long House Hall shortened up a lot, but still not sure if he will run if its soft. Maybe ground is due to get better?
 
LUKE said:
Tomorrow is the biggest days racing of the year in the Southeast of Ireland -would be a big day for the Mullins family -as I see it Bacardys will be ridden quietly and will be running on when everything else has cried enough and Montalbano could get his act together in the nervous chase.Small each way double for me-unless someone can recommend something filthy each way at Meydan.
I know this has nothing to do with sky bet chase.
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Just to think Champagne West hacked up last season off top weight in this same race! Winning would be a hard ask today, but I'd at least hope to see the horse run somewhere near to his best again. I doubt it, but I live in hope, Luke!
 
The Young Master scratched earlier. Pilgrims Bay is a horse I like and want to see in the Kim Muir! Long House Hall is respected but ground will surely be too soft. The one I'm coming round to is Jonjo's Mustmeetalady. I did this last time and she battled well. On a mark of 134, this looks totally unexposed and potentially well handicapped. It'll act on most ground too I reckon. The current price looks generous. I did advise a couple people via private message to take much bigger prices (25/1) about ten days ago on Long House Hall, so I'd be pleased for them if he won, but I held off then because the ground is unlikely to be good.
 
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No surprise Nicky has sent L'ami Harchibald to Doncaster he'd be giving half of these about 20 lbs over hurdles

Surely if he jumps he wins.

If Sceau Royal runs half as well as he did last time he looks a moral certainty which makes me wonder what Daryl Jacob is thinking of.

Bristol De Mai looks to have an easy one at Cheltenham but there's no such thing round there and he's about as reliable as a 15 shilling note
Hard to oppose but when the Last Samurai hits form he usually string a few good runs together so I imagine if Bristol De Mai wants a fight he'll get one and I'd rather back the former EW if he goies.

As for the Cleeve it's a competitive looking race but where on earth are the Stayer Hurdle brigade?
Not one of the first 15 in the betting are having a go.....How strange considering horses like Reve De Sivola Thistlecrack and Big Bucks thought it was worth winning.

It would make the day for a lot of people if Beer Goggle were to win it..so fingers crossed.
 
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Tanlic said:
No surprise Nicky has sent L'ami Harchibald to Doncaster he'd be giving half of these about 20 lbs over hurdles

Surely if he jumps he wins.

If Sceau Royal runs half as well as he did last time he looks a moral certainty which makes me wonder what Daryl Jacob is thinking of.

Bristol De Mai looks to have an easy one at Cheltenham but there's no such thing round there and he's about as reliable as a 15 shilling note
Hard to oppose but when the Last Samurai hits form he usually string a few good runs together so I imagine if Bristol De Mai wants a fight he'll get one and I'd rather back the former EW if he goies.

As for the Cleeve it's a competitive looking race but where on earth are the Stayer Hurdle brigade?
Not one of the first 15 in the betting are having a go.....How strange considering horses like Reve De Sivola Thistlecrack and Big Bucks thought it was worth winning.

It would make the day for a lot of people if Beer Goggle were to win it..so fingers crossed.
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Superb ballsy opinion regarding the race L'ami Serge would run in -shame you had to wait until final declarations were made.
 
Are the final decs out for the Cheltenham handicap he's entered in ? Show ain't over until the fat lady sings !
 
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