Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Whilst I'd agree with Grassy's points about finding the winner I would still say it is a punter friendly race. I think you could normally rack up a decent shortlist of horses at decent prices and backing a few e/w with the various place terms on offer you stand more than a fair chance of making a profit without backing the winner and if you do get the winner then its a bonus.
And for all people would say it was a lottery there have been some fair old proper gambles landed with the likes of Papillion and Bobbyjo amongst others down the years that suggests that to some people its not as much of a guessing game as you'd think.
For Joe Public, who are only looking for an interest bet, it remains a complete lottery of a race.
We will all of us have been there. On the days leading up to the big race, our friends and family - knowing our interest in the sport - will routinely ask us via Facebook/text/whatever, to give them a horse for the National. You try giving them half a dozen horses with a staking-plan attached, and see how far you get. They want one horse only, and if it doesn't win, you're basically a muppet/loser as far as they're concerned.
I agree that judicious selection of multiple horses can generate profit on the race. Usually, you can narrow it down to a half-dozen or so with a real chance, and hope that you get the breaks. If you do, then landing the winner is certainly achievable. But it's not really 'picking the winner' in the classic sense - not in my book, at any rate. It's more like astute tank-management to me.
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