1.10: Godolphin Mile Grp 2
Soft Falling Rain is the 3/1 jolly and has a perfect 5 from 5 record with the last 2 runs being here. Time very good on the first of those over 7 furlongs and not bad last time out when winning the UAE 2000 Guineas which to be fair did not take much winning. He is drawn 13 and will not get a soft lead with the likes of Red Jazz drawn to grab the rail. The Hill’s horse is a habitual front runner, and was clearly there for the exercise last time out as never put in the race. Paul Hanagan has sided with the jolly, but it is one that he has shunned that catches my eye and that’s Haatheq at 33/1. He’s one of 7 course and distance winners in the field and he can be held up or sit just off the pace, given I think they won’t hang around I would prefer to see him middle of the pack or even in the rear. He has a good turn of foot but not an electrifying change of gears like some, so it’s all about the timing of his charge. If something gets first run on him he does not have the change of pace to get back in to the race. Race should be run perfectly for him, so a move on the bend about three wide allowing him to come down the centre of the track out of the way of the horses tying up on the pace. Perhaps he’s 33/1 for a reason, but I’m prepared to chance that he is delivered at the right time and holds on for at least a place.
Haatheq 0.25 points each way 33/1 Hills
1.45: Dubai Gold Cup Grp 3 16 Furlongs
Despite my all time favourite horse being a stayer, in the main I find these races a bore and a good opportunity to open a beer or bottle of wine and this is no exception. Last year I had a decent bet on poor Fox Hunt who had a terrible injury on the first circuit resulting in him being euthanized. They made a monumental error in running the race at the end of the card which resulted in the death of two more horses.
If I were forced to have a bet I would probably have a pop on Saddler’s Rock, however, I won’t be putting a bean on anything in this race…. Good luck to those that do.
2.25: UAE Derby Grp 2 9.5 Furlongs
Secret Number 2/1 fave…..hmmmm! Awful time that they’ve priced this up on and I have to take it on with a two pronged attack. First one is with the Red Cap of Godolphin with Shuruq who’s CD win was much faster when she took the UAE Oaks, she carried 1lb more than Secret Number did in his race and gets a valuable 4lbs fillies allowance in the Derby and is surely the wrong price. Paul Hanagan retains the ride.
The 2nd selection is the American raider Dice Flavour. Yes, I know I said I shun their horses at this meeting, but this won the El Camino Real Derby on last start on Tapeta, the time wasn’t bad and he won very comfortably suggesting this slight step up in trip is going to suit. Both horses have the running style that will suit the Meydan track.
Shuruq 0.5 points eway 11/2 Hills
Dice Flavour 0.5 points eway 10/1 Hills
3.05: Al Quoz Sprint Grp 1 5 Furlongs
A race of mixed fortunes for me having had the winner a few times, but then had Invincible Ash cost me 10k on the place part of an acca 2 years ago when he was a nose from grabbing 3rd behind the legend that is J J The Jet Plane.
I’ve just spent some time watching replays of the Meydan Sprint, and yes I was impressed by the winner Shea Shea, however, have you ever seen a race run to suit a horse better than this was? The winner broke smartly and took up a position on the heels of Ballista who cut out a nice pace, it was reminiscent of a certain Frankel lolling along behind Bullet Train in a piece of work before getting a squeeze and off he went. Soumillion has preserved energy in the first half of the race, then switches the horse to the rail to run out a ready winner….. watch the replay though and tell me were the others really trying?
The horse I took from the race was Medician Man an out and out 5 furlong merchant. He broke from stall 2 and moved right to take up a position in the middle, wasn’t asked many questions and cruised home for 6th.
In the Al Quoz, he gets a nice draw near the rail and has Mr Big drawn on the rail to chase as that one will set off like a March hare. Pace on the other side will come from Ganas and I wonder if they will split in to two groups…. If they do, there could be some in running carnage on Betfair.
Medician Man has a win and a place under his belt at this year’s Carnival and looks real value at a massive 25/1. He’s my play in the race and I will check out the exchanges for some plays on the other two lead horses I mentioned as should get some decent trades out of them at their current prices.
Medician Man 0.5 points each way 25/1 Hills
3.45: Golden Shaheen Grp 1 6 furlongs
Last year Krypton factor stood out a mile in this and he did not let me down, however he could not have got rougher treatment from the draw gods in this. Mental heads the field for Godolphin and he certainly looked smart when winning well on his last run here, however he was another that enjoyed the run of the race. Breeders Cup Sprint winner Trinniberg looks to be the pace angle here from a perfect draw in 3 and he’s hot on the clock, however this is his first run away from a traditional dirt surface and for that reason I’ll pass him over.
Reynaldothewizard is a real fave of mine and have backed him in both of his wins this year over course and distance and nice prices. He’s an 8/1 shot tomorrow and he will be one selection with two small each way savers on two of the rags. Tamaathul finished his race well behind Mental last time and I’m surprised when looking at the Trakus stats that he only ran 6 metres further than the winner as he came down the straight a full 10 metres off the far rail and was last at both the 200 and 400 metre sectionals…. You’d have to say he was not put in the race. The draw like with Krypton Factor has not been kind so hopefully he can take a pull and cross across to the rail and settle in at the rear, Hanagan just needs to get him rolling a little earlier. The other small saver is on United Colours who ran a cracker when last seen on the 28th February when imo at the pace they went the winner should have come from the first 3 that turned into the straight, but James Doyle really got a tune out of United Colours and he came thundering down the middle running several metres further than anything else that was close to him. At 33/1 off levels he’s weighted to pass the line in a photo with Reynaldothewizard and therefore must be the wrong price. Jimmy Fortune at Meydan just for this, very strong in a finish….. A perfect match?
I’m probably playing the race the wrong way in shunning the obvious and not lumping on Mental, but just as Barzalona can be brilliant he can in equal measures be awful, and his cockiness will one day catch up with him. If he keeps out of trouble and lays a way off the pace and comes down the middle he should win, but its Barzalona and he will probably go for a gap that’s not there on the far rail and lose all momentum (fingers crossed lol).
Reynaldothewizard 0.5 pts win 8/1 Hills
Tamaathul 0.2 pts each way 25/1 Hills
United Colours 0.25 pts each way 33/1 Hills
4.40: Dubai Duty Free Grp 1 9 Furlongs
Trade Storm has been very impressive but for me it’s dammed if I do and dammed if I don’t as he is ridden by my nemesis J P Spencer a jockey I have no time at all for and right or wrong for that reason alone I am swerving this one. The race looks like it could be run at a crawl and if that’s the case it won’t suit Frank sat at the bag with the Ambulance for company, to me the race it at the mercy of Breeders Cup Turf winner Little Mike who has the assistance from Hall of Famer Gary Stevens back from retirement and no stranger to the big occasions. If he can set steady ever increasing fractions then in my mind he wins going away. Bound to have needed his prep run last time when a creditable 6th over a slightly longer trip, also his first start on an artificial all weather surface. Back on turf with a great draw he will take all the beating and I’m backing him win only at 8/1.
If you want a bit of value then look towards a couple of the useful fillies in the race that receive a nice weight allowance from the fellas. Sajjhaa comes here in rude health winning the Grp 2 Cape Verdi and Balanchine and the Grp 1 Jebel Hatta at this years Carnival, posting some impressive times to boot, twice under SDS, the Balanchine was particularly impressive carrying 9-3.
I’m A Dreamer is the Simcock 2nd string and won the Grade 1 Beverley D last year at Arlington giving Hayley Turner a landmark Grade 1 win Stateside. She will need it all to drop right though as another one that will be coming for way off the pace, won’t be backing her but will chuck it in some combination tcasts.
The last one to check out is Michael Bells Whigmore Hall who’s a very good horse, that unfortunately has often had Spencer on his back. I believe this horse would have won far more if the stable had kept Martin Lane on his back. Anyway, Ryan Moore up and just the sort of horse he will get a tune out of, at 25/1 you’d be mad not to have a nibble.
Little Mike 1 point win 8/1 Hills
Sajjhaa 0.5 points win 8/1 Hills
Whigmore Hall 0.2 points each way 25/1 Hills
Combination fcast and tcast these 3 plus I’m A Dreamer
5.20: Sheema Classic grp 1 12 Furlongs
Another race that I’m not keen on. To me Japanese horses run well (in the main) in one place…. Japan. Whilst they won what was probably the Worst ever World Cup a couple of years ago, more often than not their horses fail as conditions are not like the roads they run on back home.
I’m having 2 small plays in the race but am certainly not recommending a bet and it’s on the 2 outsiders in Royal Diamond and Very Nice Name at 40/1 and 100/1. The former is a Grp 1 winner and comes here off the back of a decent prep over two furlongs further. Would have needed the run and the race comments show he weekend 2 out. Just seems a big price for something that has a bit of class and could dictate at steady fractions….. One for a Betfair play perhaps? The other one has been in great form in Qatar and whilst that form may be nowhere good enough, I can never ignore a horse with form at this price with Peslier booked.
6.05: Dubai World Cup Grp 1 10 Furlongs
Historically a good race for me, with the highlight being the Ante Post advice on 2010 winner Gloria De Campeo at a monster price of 25/1. Price has never scared me, and when I looked on oddschecker for prices on this race I was staggered to see that Ed Dunlop’s brilliant gelding Red Cadeaux was also chalked up at 25/1 with several firms….. It can only be the trip that allows this price.
He has not run at a trip this short since 2009, however 2 years ago he was touched off in the 11 furlong Roseberry Handicap (also run tomorrow) at Kempton in a course record time under top weight. Eddie Ahern tried to make all on him and it almost worked. Since then he has had one run at Kempton when 2nd last year in the Sagoro Stakes that was moved from Ascot. He was beaten that day by subsequent Gold Cup winner Colour Vision and that race was also run in a course record (smashed it), this time over a distance of two miles.
I believe these are two good indicators for him on Meydan’s Tapeta surface. Both tracks are tight and Kempton form has stacked up well for horses that have run at every Carnival since they moved to Meydan.
He has shown he can lead, sit handy or come from off the pace. If I were involved in the Jockey’s briefing tomorrow I would be insistant that he make use of his perfect draw in 2, get away well and then take a lead off one of the Godolphin horses that no doubt will be sacrificed to take them along. Mosse then has a turn and half the back straight to assess the pace and make a move. If they go suicidal fractions (can’t see it) he can sit mid div and use the gear changes that the horse has, if they go at a crawl then he must wind it up down the back upping the tempo every furlong to use the horses stamina…. Remember he stays 18 furlongs and was just touched off in the 2011 Melbourne Cup.
Godolphin effectively run just the 5 here, despite the various colours, deep down they are all Blue horses and they hold one of the market leaders in Hunter’s Light who has a perfect 2 from 2 at this years Carnival. He has won comfortably on both occasions and the time was decent on his last start in the Grp 1 Makthoum Challenge, so he is rightly up there, but as we have seen time and time again the price and the horse in the blue hat mean nothing with this gang, so it would be no surprise to see one of the bigger priced horses fare better. If I were to take a price about one of theirs it would be Cassiano who finished his last race very well when 2nd to the favourite, he did all his best work in the stretch and if Buick gets him rolling a little earlier he certainly is a danger.
When the race was run at Nad Al Sheba on a traditional dirt surface you’d be mad not to be interested in anything coming over from the States, but since the switch to Tapeta they have stayed away or simply not turned up to the races if they have joined the party. They run three here with Dullahan, Animal Kingdom and Royal delta, with the latter currently just heading the market and if this was on dirt then he would be a bet, but at around 4/1 on an artificial surface I cannot back him.
Red Cadeaux 1pt each way 25/1 Hills
Afriend of mine sent me this to look through,havn't had time hope its of some interest.
