Dubai World Cup day

Cheers, will watch out for it.

Have scanned this Saturdays card, including Kempton. The fella who came 2nd to Jack Hobbs in a maiden...called Dutch Uncle has a couple entries. He's look a big player in the mile handicaps this season.
 
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I love this meeting but won't do it thoroughly until Friday. I do like Duramente though, and he's an easy standout bet on the card.
 
At first glance the best bet on the card looks Goldream in the sprint at 12/1 e/w. Dual grade 1 winner last year, needs a strong pace and quick ground (Which it looks likely he'll get) and is trained by a man who knows how to get a top sprinter right on the big day.
 
Aragorn said:
At first glance the best bet on the card looks Goldream in the sprint at 12/1 e/w. Dual grade 1 winner last year, needs a strong pace and quick ground (Which it looks likely he'll get) and is trained by a man who knows how to get a top sprinter right on the big day.
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Cowell is very downbeat about the horse, according to the Post. "Not thriving" is the gist.
 
Three posts in favour of Duramente so far. Anyone care to give their reasoning? Postponed was 3/1 after winning his prep and I agree he looks a bit short now at basically half those odds but I'm struggling to make a really strong case for Duramente.

A propos of nothing in particular, I buy every year the Computer Racing Form Annual produced by John Whitley and had occasion to look up Postponed's ratings. CRF don't cover foreign races so there are no figures for the runs last year in Ireland or France but what really struck me was the low figure for his King George win which was rated a pound lower than Dick Doughtywylie's pacemaking fifth in the Juddmonte, a pound lower than Connecticut's win in a four-runner Listed race at Pontefract last June, two pounds lower than Fire Fighting's third in the handicap that kicks off Glorious Goodwood and three pounds lower than the figure for Master Carpenter's win in the John Smith's Cup. It's also eleven pounds below Postponed's own run when second to Western Hymn at Sandown last April. It seems on the low side to me but it shows how far the KG has fallen and how much the defection on the day of Golden Horn took from last year's race.

As for the rest of the Dubai card, I remember thinking as I watched Ertijaal demolish his field in January that this was a horse that had found his metier and his subsequent performance last month only strengthened that view, confirming also that he's an uncomplicated ride. There's still a bit of mileage in his price of 100/30, for me.
 
The race revolves around the big three Gus. I can't see the others making the frame. Postponed has done it at Meydan and I can see the attraction, but on strict form there is nothing between him and Duramente. He was very highly regarded before he was ruled out of the Arc, and he is totally unexposed. His back form stands scrutiny and I strongly favour him. Highland Reel looks booked for third in my opinion. I'll be playing the main two in tricasts and reversing the order of Duramente and Postpomed with HR in third for insurance.

I agree with regards Ertijaal. The only thing nagging away at me is he has been priced as though he's already won G1's but he hasn't, whereas his main rivals have got the T shirt. That said he just looks like a G1 winner in waiting and I've backed him also.

I've got thoughts on the other races, which I'll add before racing, but I don't expect many shocks this year and I'll be playing some multiples.
 
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gus said:
Three posts in favour of Duramente so far. Anyone care to give their reasoning? Postponed was 3/1 after winning his prep and I agree he looks a bit short now at basically half those odds but I'm struggling to make a really strong case for Duramente.
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I favour Duramente for these reasons:
He has unlimited scope at the trip given that he has four lifetime starts, only one of which was over 12f, the trip that he's bred for.

I think there were solid reasons for expecting him to get beat in February - he was coming back after injury, it was a prep race for the Sheema, it was over 9f and it was a Group 2. He won despite all those reasons.

Postponed is the sort of 125ish sort I'd always be looking to oppose at short odds and his form just doesn't look good enough to justify his odds, Duramente looks the most likely. Am I right in saying that Highland Reel is the only AOB horse at the meet? If so that's one good reason to dismiss him, if the yard were serious about this meeting they'd bring more than one horse.
 
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Postponed
good horse for Cumani, unlikely Varian will improve him, did well first time out this season , diffiult to know how fit Aga Khans horse was, I rate him 122/123
will run well


Highland Reel, promising as a 2 years old, good busy campaign last season, finishing on a career best in HK, given a good ride by Ryan Moore, 120 in my figures and doesnt look like being campaign as an Arc hore, culd be fit enough but I think he will be beaten by the big 2


Duramente
difficult to find a horse with a better pedigree in the world
won fine first time out in a 9f race giving weight and looking not fit (20kg heavier than in previous run)
is 4 out 6 and well regarded in Japan as a top class horse
the way he won last years Guineas at Japan , a race that has worked out very well , was the one of an Arcs horse
If the are oming to dubai they are trying to win with him

12/1 for the Arc now, it is much better value tomorrow at 3/1

just check the final bend of this race:



https://m.youtube.com/watch?<wbr style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">list=<wbr style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">PLcKCuirOUIoWXp172QZtzxmZIXayf<wbr style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">QFtJ&params=OAFIAVgV&v=wgmSus-<wbr style="color: rgb(17, 85, 204); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">5AZA&mode=NORMAL


I think he is a proper horse, could be a 130 horse
 
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Seriously, thanks for the replies.

I hadn't seen any of the YouTube footage before but all his big wins are on the site and he looks pretty impressive. The two "classic" wins were decisive and he could be forgiven getting tired on his comeback.
 
Marble said:
The fella who came 2nd to Jack Hobbs in a maiden...called Dutch Uncle has a couple entries. He's look a big player in the mile handicaps this season.
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Had a closer look. Looks on a bloody good mark. Franny Norton does a low weight...
 
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What a fantastic card at Meydan today. There are some standouts in Vazilabad, Polar River, XY Jet, Duramente and California Chrome, and if they run to their best they win, so I've put them in an acca and had a fair sized punt for a substantial win. We've also got exciting horses like Sloane Avenue and Ertijaal on the card. The icing on the cake of course is US superstar California Chrome attempting to do what he couldn't do last year when they felt he hadn't travelled well. No such noises coming from them this year and I'm confident he'll show his true ability. I expect him to win like the horse we know he is and odds against are a steal. In a meeting of this quality there are always dangers and a few surprises, but I'm feeling unusually confident of a good day.

Selections below:

Handassa
Sloane Avenue (Maftool)
Vazilabad (nap)
Polar River
Ertijaal (Peniaphobia)
XY Jet
Intilaaq (Reel Steel)
Duramente
California Chrome (Keen Ice)

All backed in win singles barring Polar River. I've also backed them (excluding Handassa), in combination trebles and an accumulator. Those in brackets I've backed each way and in combination ew trebles and an ew four timer.
 
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Last year Highland Reel had 2 runs in France & Ireland and 1 run in England,America ,Australia and Hong Kong-that's a lot of travelling for a 3 yo -there has to be a chance that he will completely blow out.Place lay for me.
 
They all cleared away from a pretty decent field as well. That'll be some celebration tonight.

Dont know if anyone saw the Arabian race. What an absolute farce.
 
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Ertijaal ran well but was beaten on merit.

That was a tremendous duel between Muarrab and X Y Jet in the Golden Shaheen. The runner-up fought like a tiger.
 
but the 2nd to durante has run poorly since..if you like franking

I don't usually bother here but i'll have Postponed ..better hoss [luv u Clive] imo than Durante
 
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