Dwc 2015

LBM

LBM

At the Start
Joined
Jul 22, 2003
Messages
401
Nobody is excited about any of the races on Saturday?

After the most forgettable Carnival ever and the shadows over the decision of changing the surface to attract Americans to a more suitable dirt track we are facing an outstanding day of racing with most of the best horses in the world in action.
Interesting to read Sheikh Hamdan's comments about CC not handling the sandy dirt. I really hope that is not the case, for the sake of my pocket and the sake of the whole program in the future. With all due respect, it wouldn't be good for the sport if the richest race in the world is won by horses such as African Story or Prince Bishop just because they have a home advantage and more experience on an unique surface.

FWIW, I like California Chrome, Solow, Harp Star, Bundle of joy and Salutos Amigos. I hope there is at least a winner among them!!
 
I think he travelled to Dubai yesterday. Moreira rides Euro Charline, so I presume Moore rides him.
 
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Anyone know the situation with Ron The Greek? A handful of firms are quoting him at around the 12/1 mark for the World Cup but not all the bookies by any means.

He's won three times and been second twice on his first start from a break, and the beating he gave Palace Malice and Flat Out at Belmont 18 months ago has been franked nicely.
I'd forgive his run in this race last year but we'll see if he gets the go ahead to run first.
 
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Obviously i am not seeing something punters and bookies are.
The grey gatsby is well clear in my figures, is the only gr1 horse in the field and is ridden by the best jockey around, the prizemoney is enough for conections have him fit.
I went big 7/2 and 4s, i would be very very surprised if this horse is beaten on Saturday.
 
sunybay said:
Obviously i am not seeing something punters and bookies are.
The grey gatsby is well clear in my figures, is the only gr1 horse in the field and is ridden by the best jockey around, the prizemoney is enough for conections have him fit.
I went big 7/2 and 4s, i would be very very surprised if this horse is beaten on Saturday.
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You know far more than me about these international flatties Suny but Solow looks pretty solid to me, even with a wide berth. Heaven knows why the trainer upped him to 2 miles earlier on in his career.

but not my code so mine won't be big stakes like yours and therefore I'll happily be proven wrong if you pocket a nice touch, so good luck.
 
I'd have to agree with Suny, i'd have had him around 2/1 against this field. Solow, Cladocera and Euro Charline are all improving whilst Pletcher may have rejuvenated Mshawish but GG looks value at best price 7/2.
 
Main Sequence (Classic) is unbeaten since transferring to the States and comfortably accounted for Flintshire at the BC, with a host of class horses in his wake. Needs held up to the last second, but both jockey and horse have proved well capable, thus far. You'd also have to think UK prices reflect parochialism, rather than relative form, so 6/1 looks generous.
 
I've been following the racing in Dubai pretty closely all season, and actually I'm surprised to have what appear to be some reasonably generous prices. My final selections for the World Cup meeting are as follows with also multiple selections backed in forecasts and tricasts:

Mile – Tamarkuz 6/4 / Frankyfourfingers 10/1 ew (Tamarkuz is an absoute standout. He wins as long as he breaks quickly. Frankyfourfingers has run well in the prep races and he's drawn well. I have him clear next best and I'm genuinely surprised that he's available at such a big price)

Gold Cup – Ahzeemah 8/1 ew / Almoonqith 9/1 ew (Brown Panther is an obvious favourite but he needs a test and I don't see where the pace is coming from unless he makes it himself. Bathyron looks much too short over the trip which is shorter than the improvement shown over half a mile further. The selections aren't confident but have the right form in the book and look like value alternatives)

Derby – Mubtaahij 11/4 (The only realistic danger is the Japanese raider with the selection having the form in the book and the beating of Maftool and Sir Fever. He's proven he acts on the surface and he's a confident selection)

Sprint – Peniaphobia 5/1 ew (Has the clear best form from Sha Tin which can also be tied back to last years form. Ahtoug seem to me to be the only realistic danger. Plus I think he was named after my ex-wife!)

Golden Shaheen – Salutos Amigos 11/2 ew / Big Macher 16/1 ew (Salutos Amigos wouldn't be the obvious one to pick from the US raiders, having only been winning Group 3's, but a look at the times he's been winning in would suggest he could be a superstar in waiting. Big Macher is possibly better over 7 furlongs, but they will go very quickly and will need to see out every yard. His US form stands up to scrutiny and his price is much too big. Both are drawn well, but then so are the other main contenders)

Turf – The Grey Gatsby 7/2 / Cladocera 15/2 ew / Trade Storm 14/1 ew (I thought The Grey Gatsby would be favourite for this and I can't understand why he isn't. I backed Cladocera when I was over there a few weeks ago and I can't desert her despite only having beaten her own sex. She's been impressive though and the fillies allowance will be useful. I don't like backing three in a race but Trade Storm is way over priced based on his previous Meydan form and his recent second to Hunters Light. I backed Hunters Light that day but Trade Storm looked as though he needed the race and still ran well so is capable of making the frame here)

Classic – Flintshire 9/2 / Main Sequence 13/2 ew (Not much to say really other than the two selections look the best two in the race, and I'm surprised that they aren't shorter)

World Cup – California Chrome 13/8 / Hokko Tarumae 12/1 ew (I guess the doubters will have listened to Sheikh Mohammed's doubts about California Chromes ability to handle the slower dirt surface at Meydan. I don't buy it and a look at his form in the US shows he's no less able when he runs on a slower dirt surface over the there. He's surely much better than the two Godolphin entries which include last years winner. The only one I can't really get a handle on is Hokko Tarumae but his times and nature of his wins have been impressive. 10/1 is a fair each way price and a bit of a safety net)

Oh, and please don't tell Grassy I posted this otherwise he'll be merciless!!!
 
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reet hard said:
Main Sequence (Classic) is unbeaten since transferring to the States and comfortably accounted for Flintshire at the BC, with a host of class horses in his wake. Needs held up to the last second, but both jockey and horse have proved well capable, thus far. You'd also have to think UK prices reflect parochialism, rather than relative form, so 6/1 looks generous.
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He's a bleeder and he's been running on Lasix in the States Reet. Hence the improvement and I suspect his price reflects that they can't use it here. I've taken a chance on him anyway but I've also backed Flintshire. If they both run to form it should be between the two of them.
 
sunybay said:
Obviously i am not seeing something punters and bookies are.
The grey gatsby is well clear in my figures, is the only gr1 horse in the field and is ridden by the best jockey around, the prizemoney is enough for conections have him fit.
I went big 7/2 and 4s, i would be very very surprised if this horse is beaten on Saturday.
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He is well ahead on the figs but not over this distance David. He needed every inch at Leopardstown to get up on the line and while there is no opponent of Australia's caliber in here, Solow has improved quite a bit for the change to this distance and has a nice pipe opener behind him. Still can't blame you for going with TGG at those prices. Just remember too that the the French PMU will be running their own pool where you can sometimes get crazy prices.
 
The lack of pace is not in his favour either. Limario might set the pace, but there are a lot of come from behind horses in the field. I am on Solow at 7's but I will cover my bet with TGG, hard to find anything to beat both of them.
The same can be said about the Sheema Classic regarding lack of pace.
 
LBM said:
The lack of pace is not in his favour either. Limario might set the pace, but there are a lot of come from behind horses in the field. I am on Solow at 7's but I will cover my bet with TGG, hard to find anything to beat both of them.
The same can be said about the Sheema Classic regarding lack of pace.
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pace is not a problem for me
showed enough pace in the guineas and craven
has been running from the rear on fast races but doesnt idle and this jockey wi
ll be able to manage the situation,
i think he is an odds on chance.
 
sunybay said:
Obviously i am not seeing something punters and bookies are.
The grey gatsby is well clear in my figures, is the only gr1 horse in the field and is ridden by the best jockey around, the prizemoney is enough for conections have him fit.
I went big 7/2 and 4s, i would be very very surprised if this horse is beaten on Saturday.
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Connections are VERY confident.
 
Maruco said:
I've been following the racing in Dubai pretty closely all season, and actually I'm surprised to have what appear to be some reasonably generous prices. My final selections for the World Cup meeting are as follows with also multiple selections backed in forecasts and tricasts:

Derby – Mubtaahij 11/4 (The only realistic danger is the Japanese raider with the selection having the form in the book and the beating of Maftool and Sir Fever. He's proven he acts on the surface and he's a confident selection)
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Race collapsed but wow. Had a dabble on the Kentucky Derby at 15-1ew after that. Could have the Yanks running scared.
 
He was hugely impressive. It'll take a serious horse to beat him in Kentucky.

I don't want to jinx myself but this is going rather well so far.
 
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