Ebor Handicap

gus

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Genzy strikes me as an interesting outsider for the Ebor. He started his career in France but is now with Ian Williams. After showing decent form in small-field conditions races he went into handicaps rated 103 but was quickly dropped to 98 after finishing last of fifteen over 10f at Royal Ascot in June and that's the mark he is due to run off at York.

Since the weights came out he's run twice. He was an unlucky loser - "took keen hold, held up in last pair, not clear run from just over 2f out until 1f out, ran on when in the clear final furlong, took 2nd near finish, just failed" - over 12f at Ascot last month, beaten a head by Bishop Roko. He ran again at Newbury yesterday in the Geoffrey Freer. He had a stiff task at the weights and went off at 25/1 but acquitted himself very well to finish fourth, about three lengths off the 112-rated winner at levels. He was already up to 100 after his last run and he's likely to be upped again to around the 104 or 105 mark, leaving him six or seven pounds "well-in" in the Ebor. Yesterday was his first run in excess of 12f and he looked suited by it, as the Ascot run in July had suggested. He settled well, too.

The snag is: I've no idea if he's being aimed at the race. However, the Ebor is now effectively a limited handicap for basically exposed older horses with improvers not getting a look-in and as such it's the logical target for a horse like Genzy who comes up just short in Listed company. He's available at 33/1 with a number of firms. Bet365 have taken evasive action at 14/1 and I can see why.

Cue the announcement that he's going for the Lonsdale...
 
It's a good race for an each way punt this year with the market dominated by doubtful stayers and/or animals too highly rated. I like Tiger Cliff at around 12s.
 
Gus, why not ring the trainer?

I did this before and it saved me a fortune. Not suggesting doing it every week (I only did it once) but why not?
 
Gus, why not ring the trainer?

I did this before and it saved me a fortune. Not suggesting doing it every week (I only did it once) but why not?

Given that he's been declared at the 5-day stage, I'm working on the assumption he's an intended runner.

As I've said before on here, I find assessing "value" very difficult indeed generally but there are certain circumstances in which it's easier and this is one such case. There is a maximum field of 20 on Saturday. Genzy is sure to get in. If he had an average chance he'd be value at anything above 19/1. I'm pretty clear in my own mind that he has a better than average chance and he's still available at 33/1. So, for me, he is definitely "value".
 
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On the subject of the Ebor Meeting generally, we seem to have lost the 7f nursery and in its place there's a 5f apprentice handicap for three-year-olds to close the meeting. I'm no snob - I used to love the seller when it was the first race on the Wednesday - but it's a backward step, for me.
 
Steps To Freedom is interesting off a mark 6lbs lower than when beaten 3.5l in this last year.

And you could probably mark up last year's run given that he was held up well out the back in an uncharacteristically slowly-run renewal. My problem with the horse is that he is basically disappointing. He's carried my money a few times when things have seemed to be in his favour but he never quite delivers. He certainly has a chance on Saturday but I couldn't back him.
 
Steps of Freedom a NR, along with the 2 reserves, ground changing may have thrown things up in the air a bit.
 
Genzy has been raised to an official mark of 106. He is therefore 8lbs well-in on Saturday.
Officially, yes, but that race might well flatter him. My time rating for the race is moderate (about 30lbs off ORs) and the comments suggest to me they went far too fast up front.

I've just finished my ratings for the race but haven't collated them yet.
 
Officially, yes, but that race might well flatter him.

I agree. It might well. And conditions race form doesn't always translate to handicaps. He might not be as far ahead of the handicapper as 8lbs but I'm pretty sure he isn't behind him. He is a possible/probable improver in a race where improvers are thin on the ground. And he's a 25/1 outsider. I'm hardly putting him up as a cert.
 
And 25/1 is quite a price for one officially 8lbs well in!

Chances are it will be picked up in the racing papers by tea-time and the price will come back into line.
 
Really fed up that Noble Silk won't get a run, even though he didn't really stand a chance of winning. My main bet was No Heretic but I understand the soft ground is against him now. Not having much luck with the race this year.
 
This is a cracking renewal, well up to scratch with the top weight off 108, and a case can be made for many so, like the Melrose, I’m concentrating on what I see as the more likely ones. Genzy is 8lbs well in and I haven’t factored in possible further improvement last time out (because the clock doesn’t back it up) in a G3 last week. Tropical Beat looks a season-long plot, possibly not appearing in order to preserve a good handicap mark and he is entitled to improve for his seasonal debut a fortnight ago when he put up a career best figure. Ted Veale is of some fascination; enough to have me invest in an each-way double with Dark Crusader in the Melrose for the same trainer-jockey combination. He shot to prominence in the County Hurdle and is rated on that form with the assumption that the normal differential between the codes stands up. He got to beat up small fields in QR races off ridiculously low marks but he’s entitled to keep improving. Caravan Rolls On has been my idea of the winner all season but I don’t thinking I was expecting the opposition to be quite so hot. Spencer is also likely to find trouble in running. Tiger Cliff can also be rated a few pounds higher as he got a dreadful ride in the Ascot Stakes. The short list is Genzy, Tropical Beat, Ted Veale and Caravan Rolls On. The first two will carry the main bets with the others providing cover.
 
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Saptapadi could go well at a track he clearly enjoys, happy whatever the weather, 5lb lower than when beaten 4.5l behind Sir John Hawkwood here in May.
 
I have actually spent some time looking at this last night and have got it down to two horses...Guarantee & Genzy..have dutched them at 12.0 & 17.5...hope Genzy wins as Gus is on at a good price by the looks of it
 
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I backed Genzy earlier in the week after being prompted to look at the race, having seen this thread. I also backed Steps To Freedom, NRNB fortunately.

As far as the race goes today, I'm happy with Genzy as a selection but fear Ted Veale and did have Tropical Beat as a danger but that is now a NR. Guarantee & Hanovarian Baron will carry some of my cash as outsiders, though the way things are going, with 4 selections I may end up with more bets in the race than there are runners!
 
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