Ebor Weights

M

marrfood

At the Start
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Jan 10, 2009
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Hi Guys
Does anyone know when the weights for the Ebor are announced and whats the last day any winner gets a penalty , interesting that Fortuni who as a st leger entry as well as a ebor entry for Mark Prescott runs at Ripon today
 
Changingoftheguards was installed 9-1 favourite the Ebor Handicap


PICTURE: Caroline Norris

Changingoftheguard installed Ebor favourite

BY ANDREW SCUTTS5.25PM 9 JUL 2009

ULSTER Derby winner Changingoftheguard was on Thursday installed 9-1 favourite by the race sponsor for the Totesport Ebor Handicap at York on August 19.


The Aidan O'Brien-trained three-year-old has won both his starts and heads the sponsor's market from 10-1 shots Saptapadi and Warringah.

Totesport spokesman George Primarolo said: "The Totesport.com Ebor has attracted the usual mix of seasoned handicappers and unexposed sorts and the favourite, Changingoftheguard, is certainly the latter.

"Aidan O'Brien always enters several interesting sorts each year and we're taking no chances, especially as he won the race with a similar horse in the shape of Mediterranean in 2001, and came desperately close to repeating the dose with Honolulu two years ago."

Weights for Europe's richest handicap are unveiled next week.
 
weights are normally out at the next forfeit stage, noon on the 28th July, the weights are then worked out off of those entries.
 
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Mourilyian with no penalty for a Goodwood Cup 2nd, sure to be new favourite for the Ebor and on today's evidence will take a world of beating.
 
Flame said:
Mourilyian with no penalty for a Goodwood Cup 2nd, sure to be new favourite for the Ebor and on today's evidence will take a world of beating.
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Just got on at 16s with Stan James and 20s with William Hill.

Down to tens with some firms. Can see this being much shorter later on today.
 
If Changingoftheguard turns up with any sort of confidence behind him he will then go off favourite for sure.
 
Enroller, Carraciola and The Betchworth Kid would be strong 100 - 105 horses, so given he was a good 12L minimum in front of them, I think you could comfortably put him 115 - 120.
 
I reckon the official handicapper will rate the race through Mourilyan (112) and The Betchworth Kid (100, beaten 12 lengths by Mourilyan) and leave their ORs alone, taking the opinion that Schiaperelli won without quite needing to hit his OR of 115 and the rest running below form. Whether he's right or not is another question, of course (if, indeed, that's the approach he actually takes!).
 
Whatever case you can make for him on the figures, will he go past the leader at York? Both times he's finished second this year, I've felt that he's been happy to chase rather than go and put the race to bed.

Though I don't think he'll look anything other than averagely handicapped even after this run tbh.
 
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I was impressed with Changingoftheguard at Down Royal, and his second at Chester to Harbinger looks even better after this week. I think he'll take all the beating.
 
RP live reporter: -

4:56pm
Ebor doubt
Mourilyan, who was cut for the Ebor after his Goodwood Cup second, is more likely to run in the Lonsdale Cup.
 
Fancy Red Merlin quite strongly each way. Munsef franked his Newton Cup form nicely on sunday (I didn't even know the fecker was running:mad:).
 
davidjohnson said:
What price would Una Pelota be in the Ebor getting 8 lb from ChangingoftheGuard?
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I appreciate where your coming from David, but I feel that Changingoftheguard has progressed well and also that he posesses a decent change of pace. Saying that, I also realise that in terms of competitiveness, the Ebor is a big step up from his Down Royal race.
 
Does anyone know what the excuse was for the Luca Cumani horse Waldvogel that finished last at Goodwood this week?

The biggest difference of opinion amongst the bookies for this race comes about this horse, and was wondering does anyone rate any of his form in Germany?

I haven't a clue but nothing really springs of the page as value in this race for me.
 
Now that Goodwood is over, I reckon it's time to look seriously at the Ebor. It's been very kind to me in the past so am very much looking forward to it.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
I reckon the official handicapper will rate the race through Mourilyan (112) and The Betchworth Kid (100, beaten 12 lengths by Mourilyan) and leave their ORs alone, taking the opinion that Schiaperelli won without quite needing to hit his OR of 115 and the rest running below form. Whether he's right or not is another question, of course (if, indeed, that's the approach he actually takes!).
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From the BHA website:

The BHA figures - now available in racecards at most tracks - proved an accurate prediction of the result, with second-top-rated Mourilyan finishing runner-up. The globetrotting, 112-rated five-year--old finished 12 lengths clear of the 100-rated The Betchworth Kid - and (using the customary 1lb per length for a good-ground race over two miles) it seems reasonable to assume that both ran to their marks.

This gives Schiaparelli - who won by a length - an "arithmetical" performance-figure of 113. But I reckon Frankie Dettori had a bit left in the locker on what was, perhaps surprisingly, only Godolphin's second ever winner of this historic and popular contest. I reckon his win was worth at least 114, and plan to leave his current official rating unchanged on 115.
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Had a few shillings on Record Breaker of Johnstons last night as think he's a progressive type.

Are the weights out tomorrow?
 
The weights have been out for ages but there might be a declaration/forfeit stage this week.

From a handicapping perspective, one trainer made a very interesting remark last week at Goodwood (Mark Johnston? Roger Charlton?). He opined that the top handicaps are so competitive and attract such classy horses you "almost have to be badly handicapped to get into them" these days. (Then he goes and skooshes the big one.)
 
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