Ebor Weights

Record Breaker has an entry for a race at Newbury on 15th; would he be likely to run in both races? I just really like Hits Only Vic and Munsef [even though he's too old]. I'm actually going to the Ebor this year so have become somewhat obsessive about this race! It seems to be won by classy sorts, but I'm still desperate to find one that's slipped under the net.
 
What do all make of the chances of Covert Ambition? Only 4 starts, and never out of the first two. Slightly disappointing last time out, but if he is an intended runner, 25/1 seems very big.
 
Got a huge weight hasn't he. I know that horses tend not to win carrying that sort of weight, but have no idea what their place chances are. Apart from the weight there don't seem to be many negatives about him, but if a horse has only run 4 times I suppose there won't be! Manyriverstocross doesn't have any negatives about him either, but I assumed he wouldn't get into the race. May snap up the 20/1 available ew.
 
He will have topweight, but he's one of only a handful of improvers likely to get into the race. As well as the Yorkshire Oaks, his dam Super Tassa won over as far as 14f in Italy and he has prospects of staying the trip but I don't think his stamina is guaranteed.

Manyriverstocross' penalty for Goodwood should be sufficient to get him a run.
 
I just love Hits Only Vic and really want him to run a big race; he seems to love the track and it would be great to have a northern winner. Is it a problem for horses with little racecourse experience running in such big fields eg the favourite?
 
Covert Ambition runs off 109. To win, he'll probably have to be capable of running to 120+ under 9-10. In his favour is the fact that he's improving significantly between runs and might not be far off that. His best chance would be if Frankie could get him to dictate his own moderate pace and use his class at the business end, effectively creating a false-run race.

I'm seriously thinking of decanting all my funds from all my accounts and transferring them to Betfair to lay Changingoftheguard. Off 107, he'd need to be up to hitting something like 118 and I'm struggling to envisage his doing that.
 
Hard to see even Detori being able to dictate in an Ebor, particularly if Johnston runs Record Breaker and Drill Sergeant, Som Tala goes from the front, so does Warringah etc etc.

I've been really negative on Changingoftheguard since the weights came out but I'm wavering a little. I think he looks like one of the horrid Montjeu's that can't keep a straight line under pressure and also carries his head awkwardly. However, he must surely improve for the step up in trip, given his pedigree being out of a Park Hill winner. Agree the mark looks very stiff, a rise of 11lb for Down Royal looks hard to justify on what he actually achieved.

I'd really like Precision Break but I don't think he's going to get in. The likelihood is I'll back Warringah. Not sure he had enough use made of him at Goodwood but the fact he just got touched off means he avoids a penalty I'll wait to see the ground because I think firmer than good is important to him and whilst he has plenty of weight, I think this is an Ebor low on quality.
 
I know Changingoftheguard came second to that horse of Michael Stoutes [sorry late at night memory loss] but apart from that I'm not sure what he's actually beat. 4/1 seems very short a price, and Aiden O'Brien hasn't got the best of records in this race. Also the last 10 winners had run within 40 days. Not sure about the second favourite either; glad I'm not the man who stands to win a million if he wins!
 
I think Precision Break will get in and he's definite short-list material. They probably tried to win cleverly at Goodwood to get the penalty and just overdid the waiting tactics. He gets in unpenalised for losing, unlike Magicalmysterytour, and must have a shout.

The ratings spread tends to be about 110-92 but Mudawin got in off 88 to win.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Covert Ambition runs off 109. To win, he'll probably have to be capable of running to 120+ under 9-10. In his favour is the fact that he's improving significantly between runs and might not be far off that. His best chance would be if Frankie could get him to dictate his own moderate pace and use his class at the business end, effectively creating a false-run race.

I'm seriously thinking of decanting all my funds from all my accounts and transferring them to Betfair to lay Changingoftheguard. Off 107, he'd need to be up to hitting something like 118 and I'm struggling to envisage his doing that.
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DO,

I can understand you saying he'll need to be a good bit better, but he certainly wouldn't need to be 11 pounds better than his mark to win this; the Ebor is hardly full of unexposed types a la a race like the Britannia, no?
 
It's probably important to keep the discussion in context and I should have said that the figures relate to my own ratings.

It would be very rare, on my ratings, for an Ebor winner to hit less than 11lbs higher than its OR.

Last year (at Newbury in the equivalent race) All The Good won off 100 and I rated its performance 114+.

2007: Purple Moon OR 101 / DO 113+
2006: Mudawin OR 88 / DO 100

Go back through previous years and a very similar picture will emerge. RPRs will do likewise but ORs are conservative and a winner would probably go up about 7lbs for winning.
 
Excuse my ignorance, but Luca Cumani has got a 5lb claimer for Waldvogel; I presume he can use his claim in this race? The only claimer in the race from what I can see. Willy Mullins hasn't got jockeys booked for his two; does that mean that they are unlikely to run?
 
davidjohnson said:
Hard to see even Detori being able to dictate in an Ebor, particularly if Johnston runs Record Breaker
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David, I may be wrong here but from what from my understanding of his form is, Record Breaker can go to the front early or sit off the pace? Basically no forgone conclusion he'll make the pace and it was the fact they've been trying different tactics lately with him that I thought was interesting. Could be completely wrong with my form reading abilities though!
 
If you'd have quoted the rest of what I'd said, you'll see I thought there were other options that could go from the front.
 
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