Eclipse

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
19,195
Location
Leyland
Are we bothering discussing the racing on this forum anymore or should we all move over to the snoozefest of the Brexit thread.

Time Test is still a bet. He's the best horse in the race and is third fav.
 
Good man Euro

With the weight The 3yo's receive Time Test will need everything to drop right for him which it isn't going to with the forecast ground, while supposedly going to be in better condition than first thought it still won't be ideal for him imo.
The Gurkha wins (whose end of season target will be the BC turf) but My dream boat won't go down without a fight.

Battle of Marathon looks a bet for the Coral challenge.
 
The weight doesn't come into it for me. It's to bring horses of different ages together.

If you go back through the roll of honour Giants Causeway is the only 3yo I can find since the mid 80s who won this stepping up in trip for the first time.

I like Time Test because imo he's the best horse in the race and isn't fav. That's the reason I backed Tepin in the Queen Anne and it should have been the reason for backing Golden Horn in the Arc.
 
I agree with Euro. I refuse to talk about weight in a Group One wfa event. By definition, it's a level weights contest.

I also agree Time Test is the best horse in the race. The ground is an imponderable. I backed the horse at 10/1 ages back in anticipation of midsummer ground. I've hedged my bet at much shorter odds to recover my stake but I'm still in a decent position and I might go back in on the horse if the ground is anywhere near decent. I respect The Gurkha.
 
gus said:
I agree with Euro. I refuse to talk about weight in a Group One wfa event. By definition, it's a level weights contest.

I also agree Time Test is the best horse in the race. The ground is an imponderable. I backed the horse at 10/1 ages back in anticipation of midsummer ground. I've hedged my bet at much shorter odds to recover my stake but I'm still in a decent position and I might go back in on the horse if the ground is anywhere near decent. I respect The Gurkha.
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Forgive my ignorance but I need educating on the concept of wfa
I realise that the 4yo's are a year older and stronger but how does the solution to that come to the 3yo's receiving a massive 10lb?
 
fonz said:
Good man Euro

With the weight The 3yo's receive Time Test will need everything to drop right for him which it isn't going to with the forecast ground, while supposedly going to be in better condition than first thought it still won't be ideal for him imo.
The Gurkha wins (whose end of season target will be the BC turf) but My dream boat won't go down without a fight.

Battle of Marathon looks a bet for the Coral challenge.
Click to expand...

Don't see TG staying the 12f of the Turf, Fonz, and might struggle over this c/d with the Khalid pacemaker towing them along.
Time Test for me; weather permitting.
 
We have two bits of evidence that Time Test doesn't act on cut, his run in the International and his failure in America. Both surfaces he faced those days were tricky plus he might not have liked going to America (he was far from the only European horse who under performed at the BC.) At York TGG and Golden Horn were below form in the same race, that's fishy imo.

Plus it's good to soft at present and they've had a dry day today.
 
Euronymous said:
Exactly. 3yos are immature animals and although you get precocious ones in the main they need this weight to play on a level playing field. Like the race below is a perfect example.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/re...lts_top_tabs=re_&results_bottom_tabs=ANALYSIS

The three beasts in that race were of similar merit but Opera House was a mature horse
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I get that, But are there many instances of weight received giving an unfair advantage?
I'm thinking 4 of the last 5 Nunthorpe's going to fillies
4 of the last 5 arc's going to fillies and also Taghrooda's KG?
 
Three year olds have a great record in the Arc in part because some of them are near mature by the time that race comes round so the WFA scale is imo slightly generous at that time - but in general 3yos are prepared better for the race in terms of having mid season breaks.

As for Tagrooda, she was let's say a 3lb better horse than Telescope at their respective bests, plus she got a 3lb sex allowance. That equates to the beating she gave him that day, not the WFA. The WFA bought them together, her superiority+sex allowance equalled a 3l beating.
 
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I'm really struggling to see how Time Test is the "best horse in the race" that a few seem to think.

Well beaten the both times he's contested a G1 and a sole G2 win to his name which consisted of beating the admirable but well exposed Custom Cut a length. Similarly Western Hymn has proved time and again that he is a G3 animal only.

and there's no lines of form yet to the 3 year olds to base this assumption on.

Being by Galileo I'd fully expect The Gurkha to appreciate the extra couple of furlongs, he'll have no problems with the ground and think Evens is actually a good bet.
 
Those two Group 1 defeats like I said were in America at a dodgy track/ground and even more of a throw away in the Juddmonte, in a race where Golden Horn and The Grey Gatsby also underperformed.

His win giving weight in the Brig Gerard (conceding fitness also) is imo the best form on offer in this race. I like the Gurkha, and have backed him at 4s for the Sussex, but this is a tough ask for his 1st step up in trip.
 
There are possible excuses for those two defeats I grant you but I've lost plenty down the years based on excuses and I'd want to see him win at the highest level before acknowledging him as a genuine G1 performer.
 
My tuppence worth-backing unlucky losers at short odds in Group 1 races isn't the most profitable system ever known.My Dream Boat will surely be a bigger price in running.
 
5/1 my dream boat is a must bet
all 3 similar on figures , but he is one proven on the conditions

i am going only to win, but if it were an 8 runners race he would be a great EwEw
 
I'll take Hawkbill against the field, not massively confident, 7/1 is tempting.
 
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Ground looks to be drying at a decent rate but Roger Charlton still seemed relatively downbeat when interviewed on RUK today, Reiterating what we already knew that he's going to run here because there's nothing else for him.

Taking all that into account, It has to be The Gurkha for me.
 
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