Epsom Derby 2012

reet hard said:
Couldn't have that at all, Trackside.
Firstly, I'm convinced that Astrololgy's role was that of pacemaker, an opinion strengthened by the high confidence in Camelot expressed by Derrick Smith before the race.
Second, Astrology set a good, even pace, then visibly quickened fully 4f from home and maintained that impetus until passed by his stablemate, which hardly suggests he'll be better over shorter.
Thirdly, from a stable which usually has myriad entries for all its better horses, Astrology has just one at 10f, yet 3 at the Derby Distance.
Interpret the sectionals as you will, for mine, the form shows all the first 3 will prove better at 12f (or more) than they will at 10,
Click to expand...


could you explain what is an even pace at Epsom Reet?..and how do you know Astrology set one?
 
Re - Sectional Timing

In my view, it might work well for US racing, where tracks are uniform, distances generally shorter, and races run hell-for-leather from the outset, but the nature and complexity of British racing hardly lends itself to producing hard and fast figures you could hang your betting hat on.
For some years now I've regarded pace as a vital factor, but never subscribed to the view percentage times (taken at whatever distance) are a reliable guide to what's happened in the race. No table of figures can pick up every nuance, change of pace, or challenge by another horse - even in sprint races - let alone something as complex as an Epsom Derby, and the eyes (and a working knowledge of form) will always be the better guide.
No need to take my word for it, either; I'll repeat what was said by someone who's spent a lifetime clocking horses:
Although I remain intrigued by the possibility of analyzing fractional times mathematically, the best way to judge the effects of pace is the way trip handicappers do: to watch races intelligently and perceptively Andrew Beyer
and that, working in a much more straightforward environment than the length, twists, and undulations of the Derby course.
 
Ok everyone, I have just been through the last few pages of this thread and deleted anything that didn't relate to the Derby - or wasn't constructive.

From now on keep this thread on topic or I will lock it.

If anyone has any issues with anything that I have removed, or anything else, let me or one of the other moderators know.

Thanks
 
Camelot 1-3 from 2-5 for Irish Derby

Paddy Power said: "We have seen a couple of decent four-figure bets for Camelot over the last couple of days which would indicate that he is probably more likely than not to star at the Curragh at the end of the month." ( Racing Post)
 
Anyone who thinks Ballydoyle can just throw the stable cat at this year's Irish Derby hasn't been paying attention.
 
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