Festival X-Country.

Tout Seul

Tout Seul

Senior Jockey
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May 2, 2003
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I have a vague recollection of reading that the Cross Country might be changed to a handicap this year. Can't find anything. Was it being discussed?
Since I lost my marbles at school due to not knowing the rules I thought I better ask.
 
Tout Seul said:
I have a vague recollection of reading that the Cross Country might be changed to a handicap this year. Can't find anything. Was it being discussed?
Since I lost my marbles at school due to not knowing the rules I thought I better ask.
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I thought it was the other way and it had been changed to level weights?
 
Not so sure about that Grey. Aside from the weight pull Cantlow would prefer better ground and was ridden too aggressively, which won't happen in March.

Bless The Wings on the other hand is a serious e/w price at 16s and he just might.
 
wilsonl said:
Not so sure about that Grey. Aside from the weight pull Cantlow would prefer better ground and was ridden too aggressively, which won't happen in March.

Bless The Wings on the other hand is a serious e/w price at 16s and he just might.
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You're all on the wrong horse... :ninja:
 
With a lap to go Felix De Giles was looking behind to check nothing else was lurking because he knew he could take care of the ones in front of him. When he saw no dangers behind he was able to delay his move for as long as he liked. He could have finished a lot further in front of Cantlow and the rest if pressed.
 
The Frenchie had spent his career running in soft/heavy ground races over in France Grey so he'd have been suited by conditions. It'll be a lot different back on Cantlow's likely more favored surface in the spring.

That said, I think BTW is the one to back anyhow.
 
The ground on the X-C course is always quicker than the main tracks, Lee, so it would have been appreciably faster than anything Urgent De Gregaine has experienced recently. Also, go back far enough in his record, and you will see UDG has winning form on Good-to-Firm at shorter-trips, and I think it's therefore dangerous to write him out of things, on account of likely quicker going at the Festival.

He looked like a horse with a ton in-hand over Cantlow, and 10/1 is an attractive price, any way I look at it.
 
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That's fair comment regarding the ground on the X country course Grass but I just feel the race didn't go Cantlow's way. A lot of use was made of him and it set it up perfectly to a horse held up off the pace, such as UDG.

I seem to have ended up defending the chances of a horse that I think may struggle to win the race though and one who represents rank bad value.

Cantlow was beaten out of sight in this last year, Any Currency is clearly feeling the effects of age and the fourth home on Saturday was tailed off last year too. The rest were one time quality horses but chancers in this type of event.

In summary I don't think UDG put up that good a performance off his featherweight to have me rushing to back him for a race he'll be off levels in, regardless of the ease of his win.

Quantitativeeasing and Bless The Wings will provide sterner tests.
 
I don't agree that UDG is "rank bad value". After hacking-up over Course & Distance, he is still a double-figure-price, for a race where he'll be a spring-chicken age-wise, amongst a field of old-speckled-hens.

I think there's plenty to like about him, and think 10/1 is - if not exactly generous - then perfectly fair.
 
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With the festival race not being a handicap, if he was given a quiet one it must have been with something else in mind maybe at Punchestown later.
 
Maruco said:
With the festival race not being a handicap, if he was given a quiet one it must have been with something else in mind maybe at Punchestown later.
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Or a sighter. Not a fan of the horse, but I'd expect a far better showing in whatever race he turns up with in the festival.
 
Cause Of Causes looks like he is being trained with the National in mind

Pretty confident though that the Cross Country Festival winner will come from that Cheltenham trial

Cantlow looks a worthy favourite, but the French horse beat him fair and square

However am confident if Rachael Blackmore hadn't fallen off the horse that Auvergnat would have beaten them both as he was cantering at the time.

Then proved how unlucky he was that day by winning the banks race at Punchestown yesterday. The current 12-1 with Betfair Sports looks a decent each way play
 
I often find people try and convince themselves that horse z will go well in cross country, he was/is a high class staying chaser. Most of the time there is very little correlation between the level of x country form and rules form. Some take to it, some don't. We only have one piece of evidence with CoC, which would suggest not.

Not saying he can't run well or win, but I'd much rather bless the wings from the same yard at a slightly shorter price.

Sent from my SM-G360F using Tapatalk
 
littlelad said:
I often find people try and convince themselves that horse z will go well in cross country, he was/is a high class staying chaser. Most of the time there is very little correlation between the level of x country form and rules form. Some take to it, some don't. We only have one piece of evidence with CoC, which would suggest not.

Not saying he can't run well or win, but I'd much rather bless the wings from the same yard at a slightly shorter price.

Sent from my SM-G360F using Tapatalk
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You're contradicting yourself there. He was given a quiet ride and is therefore 100% unexposed over the x-country test. He could lap a lot of horses in the race.
 
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SlimChance said:
Cause of Causes 20/1.

Discuss.
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I too took note of the ride he was given over the course last time. I think the national may be his main target this year. Don't forget Elliott has gone the cross country route as a prep for the grand national before, when he won it in 2007 with Silver Birch.

That doesn't mean Cause of Causes won't win at cheltenham though. Silver Birch finished second in '07 and the results wont effect the national weights. Given the horses festival record I think they would love to win another race at the festival with Cause of Causes. As SC has said he could probably lap some of these so could be short of his best and still win. Overall think 20/1 is a good EW bet. Can see a gamble on the day for sure.
 
MoscowFlyerisMagnificent said:
I too took note of the ride he was given over the course last time. I think the national may be his main target this year. Don't forget Elliott has gone the cross country route as a prep for the grand national before, when he won it in 2007 with Silver Birch.

That doesn't mean Cause of Causes won't win at cheltenham though. Silver Birch finished second in '07 and the results wont effect the national weights. Given the horses festival record I think they would love to win another race at the festival with Cause of Causes. As SC has said he could probably lap some of these so could be short of his best and still win. Overall think 20/1 is a good EW bet. Can see a gamble on the day for sure.
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You speak so much sense but your last line is wrong. The price will collapse long before then.
 
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