Fighting Fifth

Great to see Harchibald back....little credit is given to his actual hurdling he makes up so much ground at each flight.

Clopf frustrates me...travelled like a dream but stopped dead.

Katchit....well that was predictable.
 
Great to see Harchibald back. If he makes it to Cheltenham it'll make the Champion Hurdle an intriguing race to watch, with the likely scenario of him cruising behind the leaders approaching the final flight.

Clopf again travelled really well but didn't find anything. Katchit ran well but it's really tough for 4 year olds when they step out of their own age group.
 
Clopf run his race. This is as good as he is.


About Katchit
if Detroit City was not able to beat the principals, I dont know why this one should do it.
He was a good juvenile horse(149) but you need to be a 165+ to win a Champion Hdl.
 
Originally posted by sunybay@Dec 1 2007, 03:46 PM
About Katchit
if Detroit City was not able to beat the principals, I dont know why this one should do it.
He was a good juvenile horse(149) but you need to be a 165+ to win a Champion Hdl.
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Katchit won a handicap off 159 last time and is now on an OR of 162. Harchibald might have been higher than that a couple of years ago but Katchit's profile was that of an improver. Al Eile was off 159 last time (and beaten) and his proximity over a trip as short as this leads me to believe Katchit was below his best today.
 
Find it hard to believe Katchit has much more improvement in him myself, being a small, compact sort with little scope..

Seemed to keep improving throughout the year last year mind you, but he ran his race today IMO..
 
Desert Orchid

The hcp he won was a very poor race
a four horse race
the runner up was well beaten next time
I think Katchit run today his best race as hurdler.
 
Lets hope Harch shows his full potential this season. 10-1 for the Champion hurdle is a crackin bet!
 
Summed it up perfectly Suny!

Katchit has beaten nothing but 4 year olds.....how many times do we have to say this about second season juvenile hurdlers. In the handicap you mention Desert Orchid he beat a dog of a horse in second.
 
Originally posted by granger@Dec 1 2007, 04:04 PM
Maybe clopf isn't as good as I thought he was
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I think you can safely say that he isn't and ditto Ebaziyan too.

Both horses were successful as novices in 'jog and sprint' affairs. When moving into open company though, in order to reach the apex, they've got to be capable of sustaining their speed for longer distances then they had been bullying novices over. It's very unusual to win a Champion Hurdle (though not unheard of) by going slow and then turning it into a sprint. Both Clopf and Ebaziyan won races last year thus, and I felt were given exalted status based on their achievement rather than analysising how they'd done it. A closer examination of the latter would lead you to conclude that neither had demonstrated their ability to move into open company and their seemingly preferred modus operandi wouldn't be suited etc.

So far so good, I'd raised doubts about both disappearing back into the ether, and both seem to be proving me right. The problem with my remarkable insight is that I should have kept it to crabbing these two and settled for it :laughing: Unfortunately, I went so far as to nominate Blythe Knight and Osana as being the two most suited to make their mark in 2008 :( Alright Blythe Knight might have half an excuse, and he certainly seems to respond to AP McCoy who was acknowledged last season as single handedly finding the key to the horse, and teaching, him to hurdle at racing speed. I wouldn't overlook the impact that the absence of the partnership might have had today He certainly looked unsettled and uncomfortable etc. I reckon Blythe Knight deserves a second chance with AP on top before I run up the white flag.

Osana? well the jury's out I suppose. He didn't lose anything in finishing 2nd to Sizing Europe in the Greatwood giving weight, and if using weight and winning distances etc to project a result off levels, would have won.
 
Harchibald must be one of the most difficult horses to assess in the history of the game.

One day he looks like he could win a Champion Hurdle without breaking sweat, on another, he could get beaten in a seller.
 
Originally posted by Will@Dec 1 2007, 04:36 PM
Its great to have Harchibald back. The presence of Harchibald just adds interest to the race.
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Has to be my favourite ever NH horse, he just exudes class and charisma. I`ve lost a fair wack on him in a couple of Champion Hurdles (one of which he didn`t even run in) but today made up for all of that.
 
His jumping was absolutely immaculate today as well.. probably the best round of hurdling I have seen. Ever.

Clopf was dissapointing today.. folded very quickly when the race got started in earnest.. perhaps your theory is correct after all, Warbler..
 
Absolutely right that Harchibald never looked like being beaten today from a long way out, he did it head in chest - mentally [tho really putting head out, physically]. I didn't back him but it was great to see a horse which has been so crabbed, come good

And totally right Warbler that the ride seems to be the secret with Blythe Knight, he was never at the races today but clear from early doors, he was never put in the race early enough to tell.
 
Originally posted by trackside528@Dec 1 2007, 11:30 PM
Clopf was dissapointing today.. folded very quickly when the race got started in earnest.. perhaps your theory is correct after all, Warbler..
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I'd be very confident the theory's right Trackside, (which isn't as arrogant as it sounds) as the issue at hand isn't so much the theory (that's grounded in a well established line of science and maths and can pretty well be proven - not that I'd claim it as my own anyway).

Instead the issue is whether I'm correct to apply it to the likes of Clopf and Ebaziyan? In other words, its judgement - which is a seperate issue altogether, and many a good theory has floundered if placed into the hands of a poor judge :D On the plus side, I did use it to dismiss both Mister Hight and Sweet Wake, and nominated Straw Bear and Detroit City as being the horses best equipped to win such races and graduate etc (and that was done before the 2006 festival confirmed it). To date though neither of my nominations to graduate have really set the pulse racing
 
Harchibald cannot win a Champion Hurdle. He couldn't win one before his injury and he can't win one now as he cannot be trusted.

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Katchit - he didn't disgrace himself and stayed on again after he was beaten. They ground looked a little tiring to me as well and I am sure he is a better horse on a sounder surface. Time will tell but I am firmly of the belief he will come out again and prove that he is a serious Champion Hurdle contender.
 
i still think that katchit is the one to be on. he handles cheltenham really well and handles pretty much any ground.
harchibald will never win a champion hurdle even if he was the only horse in the race. only two words to describe him
Bridle Horse
 
Harchibald cannot win a Champion Hurdle. He couldn't win one before his injury and he can't win one now as he cannot be trusted.
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You mean the time he was touched off by a dual Champion Hurdler beating a subsequent Champion Hurdler into third? Yep that sort of track form makes him a no hoper.

I am sure he is a better horse on a sounder surface
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Cause Harchibald really loves an ease in the going....
 
yea thats the time. he was given a brilliant ride that time but he showed no heart in it and i believe he has now past his best anyway. the youngsters will beat him
 
Why didnt Katchit beat him yesterday? The ground (on the easy side of good and a bright sunny day of drying) is a pretty lame excuse. Katchit didnt even beat Al Eile.
 
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