Final Group matches - The Draw

S

SlimChance

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Is there any angle in perming the draws in the matches where a draw will suit both teams in the finals group matches? Some of these go off sub 6/4 on Betfair. You could also have some dead rubber matches where the draw shortens up.

Purely for a small staking fun bet this could offer a lot of edge. Any thoughts on the best matches to include? I'm think of playing any 3 and any 4 from say 8 matches.
 
I understand that.

I just wonder if you are picking a bad set from which to perm your draws. Given the probability of a draw in the final set of matches is 25%, compared to a group game average of 35% plus in every world cup.

Stats suggest you would be better off picking any other set of matches from which to perm your draws
 
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Bar the Bull said:
Let's have a look at the proportion of draws in final group matches.

4/16 in 2010
4/16 in 2006
4/16 in 2002
5/16 in 1998

Still want to put the effort in?
Click to expand...

How many of those 16 in each year were matches when a draw meant both teams go through(or the dead rubber example as above)?
 
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I'd need to check. Portugal v Brazil last time round and Sweden England in '06 off the top of my head. But if I am not mistaken, Corkman is talking about picking the matches in advance, so it is impossible to know when such an eventuality will exist.
 
While the concept is interesting, I'd have thought that draws in the opening round of group matches is a better bet. Every country will play its strongest eleven and every country will be afraid of losing.
For what it's worth, I'm in a competition that includes forecasting the result of every match and I have 6 out of sixteen draws in the opening round and 4 out of 16 in the final round.
If you want suggestions for final round draws, Croatia/Mexico and Italy/Uruguay would top my list.
 
Well, the final count was 2 draws in the first 16 matches, 4 in the second 16 and 3 in the third 16. Hope you steered clear, Slim.
 
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