Form and the Market

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Bete Noir

At the Start
Joined
Aug 25, 2013
Messages
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This is my first proper post on the forum and I have to be quick as my race example is only twenty minutes away. I like to make my own selections from form with an eye on the market and will bet up to three runners in a race where the market is viable. The Catterick 3.40 according to my assessment is 1, 4, 3, 2, 5, 6.

In the end it boils down to Bluegrass Blues and Skytrain on form as both won last time out at Newmarket.

However, as I use the Betfair prices forecast as my tissue there won’t be a bet for me as Bluegrass Blues forecast 3.5 was showing 2.54 on the market. As I never achieve a strike-rate of over 30% 3.5 is my minimum, but it does appear that connections have confidence in the horse. Skytrain f/c 4 showing 4.3 is not moving at present. Penny Garcia f/c 7 showing 9.8 so no confidence there.

In general I don’t like to support runners beyond the true mathematical odds that is 1 point lees than the field in this case 5/1, so the two to consider have to be Bluegrass Blues and Skytrain for me.

Does this make sense?
 
Take no notice of Slim Chance, B.N.
He's under quite some stress at the moment -- what with relationship issues, an imminent holiday to a country in which he doesn't speak the lingo; problems with bookmakers who are tardy in paying him his money; and moving apartments ( a polite way of saying he has been evicted for non-payment of rent).
He has a reason I guess for being a bit tetchy.
So, make allowances this one time, he's normally a harmless old fruit. :)
 
Bete Noir said:
so the two to consider have to be Bluegrass Blues and Skytrain for me.

Does this make sense?
Click to expand...
I dunno, ...................... but you got the 4/1 winner of the race and your other pick was third -- so kudo's for that.
Well done ! :thumbsup:
 
What can I say? Only to apologise for posting drivel :rolleyes:, except it wasn’t my idea in the first place but derives in the main from two books I read – the first many years old and the second well into the computer age:

The following is a direct quote from a book 'Come fly With the Butterfly' by John Mort Green, an old-time betting pro. The advice is still relevant now and can be recommended, particularly to inexperienced punters:

1. Never be greedy.
2. Never look at anything other than the best class horses, trainers and jockeys.
3. Forget those dreams of 100/1 winners and be content with horses in strong demand in the market.
4. Stop as soon as you are showing a profit on the day.
5. Back unpopular riders on the Tote.
6. Watch for eleventh hour jockey changes.
7. Follow money from big betting stables.
8. Learn to think the same way as trainers and jockeys.
9. Always get value by trying to beat the book.
10. Never lose confidence because you have lost everything else.

The professional punter must always ensure that he is getting value. Gambling on horses is all a question of buying and selling. The punter must be like the man on the Stock Exchange, knowing exactly when to strike a transaction to secure the best bargain. On reading the next section you will probably get a better idea of what I mean.

The Principles of Systematic Betting (a free e-book from RacingSytsemBuilder that I have on file and available to any member interested in drivel :p).

We have said that systematic betting is based on a scientific premise: that the past forecasts the future. It is also based on the scientific premise that certain principles or laws underlie the apparent chaos of the universe. So, what are the underlying principles at work on the racecourse? You may have heard the old saw that fast horses win races. This is a tautology, because by definition, of course, the fastest horse in the race on the day always wins. The trick is to find the one which will be fastest on the day before the race is run! To me, this trick has three aspects. First, the horse must have the ability to win the race. Second, the horse must be able to show its form - that is, to live up to its innate ability. Thirdly, and absolutely vitally, the animal must be fancied by the people connected with it. If they are definitely not trying, then the horse will not win, and if they are not trying very hard it is less likely to win than might otherwise seem the case. These are the questions, then, that the punter must answer before choosing a runner on which he might bet -

• Does the horse have sufficient ability to win a race of this type?
• Are the circumstances right for the ability to be shown on this occasion?
• Do connections expect the horse to win or go close?

If the answer to these three questions is an unequivocal "yes", then the punter has found the right sort of horse on which to invest his money. Whether he should actually do so or not depends on the final imponderable, value, which is the subject of a later section of this book.

This is me – I will return (like gen McArthur) later with my take on the Hamilton 3.40 most likely, which will give tim e to consider the above. Got to take the dog out first tho’ :).
 
Bete Noir said:
The following is a direct quote from a book 'Come fly With the Butterfly' by John Mort Green, an old-time betting pro. The advice is still relevant now and can be recommended, particularly to inexperienced punters:

3. Forget those dreams of 100/1 winners and be content with horses in strong demand in the market.
7. Follow money from big betting stables.
9. Always get value by trying to beat the book.
Click to expand...

Surely 3 and 7 are contradictory from number 9? To beat the book, you need to be thinking outside of what the crowd do, or at least, be placing your bets before the crowd joins in.

Number 9 is the only one worth following.

Thinking like a jockey would be the quickest way to go skint of all time.
 
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7. Follow money from big betting stables.



Who are the big betting stables, can we get a few examples/start a list. Could be an interesting topic.
 
Bete Noir said:
4. Stop as soon as you are showing a profit on the day.
Click to expand...

I can't be the only punter who occasionally has one of those days where everything you back bings in - sometimes its like you have a button where you are selecting the winner rather than placing a bet. Other days everything you bet on finishes 2nd (or last).

Failing to maximise your profits when you are clearly in tune with the conditions (or lucky - you decide) is poor management.
 
Suggest you guys all read Machiavellis "The Prince " as a philosophy in life. Served me well enough . When the good times roll save enough to build the banks of the river. But don't whatever you do listen to the jockey:cool:
 
Hamilton 3.40

Hamilton 3.40 a competitive 3yo+ class 4 hcap over 9f+ on GF. Three furlongs round the loop and 6 furlongs down the straight with a stiff uphill finish. I like to compare my efforts with other sources in order of merit:

Timeform goes 5, 2, 3
Infineform goes 5, 2, 10
BF market 14.15 goes 2, 5,10
True mathematical odds indicates 2, 5, 10, 3, 7

My own form assessment 2, 5, 9, 8, 10, 3, 7, 6, 1

Argaki BF f/c 5.5 showing 4.2 so being supported - bet 3 points to clear 20
Size BF f/c 7 showing 4.3 so well supported - bet 3 points to clear 20

Of the others - Another Joe won this last year, Wellingrove Johnston/Fanning top track combo, Spes Nostra with a drop in weight might make the frame.
 
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