Frankel's Winning Distance Betting

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SlimChance

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I have not seen every firms spread but it's roughly 13/8 your choice up to & inc 3 lengths or over 3 lemgths. Now normally this market is not the most interesting but the new whip rules might might be a major factor. Let's assume Frankel runs somewhere close to his best and wins. Tom Queally did not not need to use the whip at Goodwood. The jockeys fighting it out for minor places may not want to jeopardise substantial prize money for over using the whip. I know they might hold up Frankel but even so overs looks the percentage bet.
 
I wouldn’t try second guessing how jockeys will react. It’s a two-edged sword. The big races will really put the rules under the microscope and expose them for the fiasco they are.

In the heat of the moment and glory of winning these sort of races will supersede mental calculations as how many cracks of the whip they have left and how it will affect their bank balance. A jockey who loses a short head will probably be jocked off next time. Despite what they say about connections being banned from compensating jockey losses, there are ways and means.
 
I agree with all of that Steve 100% but in this instance I am assuming they will be riding out for 2nd and 3rd place. I think their minds will be on their bank balance and could make it slightly easier for Frankel to win by further than the spread.
 
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You might be right. I still believe this is not Frankel's best trip and that he will be seen to best advantage at 10 furlongs or more. He'll probably still win this though. I hope to see him stay unbeaten, but I won't be betting on it.
 
If its 13/8 for both why not back them both and you would be getting a better win price than the 1/3 currently available about Frankel? Only marginally but it is better.
 
Time Test (by Mark Neslon) in the RFO suggests that on his speed figures Frankel only has a 1L superiority over Excelebration and "don't be too disappointed if he is forced to dig deep".
 
Easy to argue that Frankel's ability cannot be measured accurately through bare times analysis when likelihood is he went too fast early in the Guineas, mid-way in St James Palace and too slow early in the Sussex to produce an optimum overall time.
 
On the subject of winning distances, DJ, do Timeform accept the official distance given for Encke's win at HQ the other Saturday? Looked more like five than three lengths to me.
 
With jockeys up for a substantial amount via % of prize money, I expect the night before they'll all go to sleep going 1..2..3..4..5 ..... 1..2..3..4..5 ..... 1..2..3..4..5 ....

1st £567,100.00 2nd £215,000.00 3rd £107,600.00 4th £53,600.00 5th £26,900.00 6th £13,500.00
 
Soary Stars said:
With jockeys up for a substantial amount via % of prize money, I expect the night before they'll all go to sleep going 1..2..3..4..5 ..... 1..2..3..4..5 ..... 1..2..3..4..5 ....

1st £567,100.00 2nd £215,000.00 3rd £107,600.00 4th £53,600.00 5th £26,900.00 6th £13,500.00
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:) This has some truth, but meanwhile owners dreaming of stud values will be dissuading riders to worry about lost earnings… for the sake of another couple of cracks jockeys won’t be counting for races like these.
 
gus said:
On the subject of winning distances, DJ, do Timeform accept the official distance given for Encke's win at HQ the other Saturday? Looked more like five than three lengths to me.
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Both RP and Timeform have got the winning distance as 4 1/2 lengths. That's what we've used, and looks fair enough having just watched the video.
 
SteveM said:
You might be right. I still believe this is not Frankel's best trip and that he will be seen to best advantage at 10 furlongs or more. He'll probably still win this though. I hope to see him stay unbeaten, but I won't be betting on it.
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To my eyes, his form says otherwise.
He had the Guineas won after 5f, just lasted home over the stiff Ascot mile, and, off a slow ealy pace in the Sussex, had the race won fully 2f from home.
Apparently growing and strengthening the whole time, he may well cope with 10f next year, but his trainer has pegged him right this season, imo at least.
 
reet hard said:
To my eyes, his form says otherwise.
He had the Guineas won after 5f, just lasted home over the stiff Ascot mile, and, off a slow ealy pace in the Sussex, had the race won fully 2f from home.
Apparently growing and strengthening the whole time, he may well cope with 10f next year, but his trainer has pegged him right this season, imo at least.
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His form would say otherwise wouldn't it... he's not been stepped up yet. When/if he is given the opportunity you'll see the difference.

Goodwood was the key to his potential to step up.
 
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davidjohnson said:
Both RP and Timeform have got the winning distance as 4 1/2 lengths. That's what we've used, and looks fair enough having just watched the video.
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Thanks. The Post the following day gave it as 3l and that was also the distance given in the results pull-out in last week's Weekender. There must have been a correction published at some point since.
 
reet hard said:
He had the Guineas won after 5f, just lasted home over the stiff Ascot mile, and, off a slow ealy pace in the Sussex, had the race won fully 2f from home.
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just imagine what he can do over a mile the day the jockey rides the fractions correctly, wondering who would ride if Queally getting a ban.


About the stamina
I think he is a miler that could run 10f , especially net season but if the horse improves hsi mile form we are in front of Pegasus.
 
sunybay said:
just imagine what he can do over a mile the day the jockey rides the fractions correctly, wondering who would ride if Queally getting a ban.


About the stamina
I think he is a miler that could run 10f , especially net season but if the horse improves hsi mile form we are in front of Pegasus.
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I think Goodwood was the closest that has been got to seeing him at his best re conserving energy..and it was pretty impressive
 
Although I'm sure he'll win easily 3 lengths is just a little higher than I'd like for the price. I think he'll get a lead from Bullet Train but for how long, hopefully we won't see the madness from Queally we saw at Ascot before. He always seems to be ridden out so you have that on your side, but 2nd could go to something held up and finishing well, passing those who've tried to match Frankel earlier.

The w/o market looks a 2 horse race on paper, but will Excelebration get into the race too early trying to beat Frankel and leave Immortal Verse to pick him off with a late run? 15/8 says he will.

The tricast looks interesting:

Frankel
Immortal Verse / Excelebration
Immortal Verse / Excelebration / Dick Turpin

6 bets, has it boxed off for me.
 
SteveM said:
His form would say otherwise wouldn't it... he's not been stepped up yet. When/if he is given the opportunity you'll see the difference.

Goodwood was the key to his potential to step up.
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Goodwood would hardly be a stamina test, particularly the way the race was run.
Given the only early pace is likely to come from his stablemate, Frankel may have pretty much his own way here, but I'd sincerely doubt he'll be as impressive over this c/d.
 
Ridden the way he was at Goodwood he'd get 10 furlongs standing on his head.
 
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