Frankel's Winning Distance Betting

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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I hope he's not beaten and don't expect he will be, but I won't be betting on it. With eight taking part we're better off looking for Place/each-way value.
 
SlimChance said:
Time Test (by Mark Neslon) in the RFO suggests that on his speed figures Frankel only has a 1L superiority over Excelebration and "don't be too disappointed if he is forced to dig deep".
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His watch must have stopped working during the Guineas.
 
I think Immortal Verse is the most likely to beat him and at an E/W price in a dead-eight field has to be the bet.

If you wanted a turn up for the books and a big price, 25/1 is making Dick Turpin very interesting.
 
I kind of agree in so much as Immortal Verse in the without would be my pick, I don't see the value in an e/w on IV or Ex as Frankel will win.
 
The place part of an E/W pays more than a win bet on Frankel and covers three places.

Betting in the without market limits you to one place and has limited upside.

Given that I think Frankel is not unbeatable, I love this E/W approach.
 
I don't see the value in the 2nd & 3rd fav e/w, neither will win so you are covering your win stake, yes, but at a greater risk / reward than I think is 'value'. Dick Turpin on the other hand I agree with.
 
There is not a bad EW bet in the race Steve.

The place part of betting Immortal Verse EW with Ladbrokes (7/1, 1/4 odds) pays 7/4. Her true price to place in the race is more like 8/11 to 4/5. This is tremendous value. Yes you have to risk the win part of the bet, but you are getting over twice the place price so it more than makes up for the loss of value in the win part.

I could give you the same example for every single horse other than Frankel in the race to a certain extent but in these "Bad EW Races" (Why do you think bookmakers call them that? They are bad EW bets to lay as they are certain to lose laying them long-term) the 2nd and 3rd favourites are always the best to play EW as the value on the place bet is so great.
 
Gamla Stan said:
There is not a bad EW bet in the race Steve.

The place part of betting Immortal Verse EW with Ladbrokes (7/1, 1/4 odds) pays 7/4. Her true price to place in the race is more like 8/11 to 4/5. This is tremendous value. Yes you have to risk the win part of the bet, but you are getting over twice the place price so it more than makes up for the loss of value in the win part.

I could give you the same example for every single horse other than Frankel in the race to a certain extent but in these "Bad EW Races" (Why do you think bookmakers call them that? They are bad EW bets to lay as they are certain to lose laying them long-term) the 2nd and 3rd favourites are always the best to play EW as the value on the place bet is so great.
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I would query your assessment of a place price for IV Stan

running a query through RSB shows that horses priced 6/1 - <8/1 in races with 8-10 runners..not far off todays race conditions... place 1,2 or 3rd just 37% of the time..making the odds for a place about 7/4..not odds on as you suggest.

If you then accept that one of those 3 places will be filled by Frankel..you are then fighting for just two places...this then drops to 27% at best..which means fair odds to place for IV in that scenario are about 11/4.
 
alternatively..using 3rd fav instead of price shows that 3rd fav's place 44% of the time..or 31% if Frankel places

this scenario is probably more reflective due to abnormal short price fav

not close to being odds on for place really though as its 90 odd % chance that F will place
 
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EC1 said:
I would query your assessment of a place price for IV Stan

running a query through RSB shows that horses priced 6/1 - <8/1 in races with 8-10 runners..not far off todays race conditions... place 1,2 or 3rd just 37% of the time..making the odds for a place about 7/4..not odds on as you suggest.

If you then accept that one of those 3 places will be filled by Frankel..you are then fighting for just two places...this then drops to 27% at best..which means fair odds to place for IV in that scenario are about 11/4.
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Please PM me if you want me to lay me 11/4. Or 7/4.

I'm off out, but with respect, your calculations are incorrect. Remember that one of the horses is a 200/1 pacemaker, so that knocks one out immediately plus bar the front 3, they bet 25/1+. Mathematics dictates that she has a greater than 50% chance of placing as the market shows.

It's a 300% book and Frankel takes up 91% of that book as he's around 1/10 to place. Allocate the other 210% and you'll see what I mean.

Look on Betfair, she's 1.78 to place. Excelebration is 1.67.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Please PM me if you want me to lay me 11/4. Or 7/4.

I'm off out, but with respect, your calculations are incorrect. Remember that one of the horses is a 200/1 pacemaker, so that knocks one out immediately plus bar the front 3, they bet 25/1+. Mathematics dictates that she has a greater than 50% chance of placing as the market shows.

It's a 300% book and Frankel takes up 91% of that book as he's around 1/10 to place. Allocate the other 210% and you'll see what I mean.

Look on Betfair, she's 1.78 to place. Excelebration is 1.67.
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see second post Stan..that allows a little more for todays race

they aren't my calcs tbh..they are from actual race results
 
i know what you are saying about the front 3 taking most of the book..but taking the race as an average..and tbh anything can happen amongst the placed horses..price doesn't always reflect outcome..it only takes a rag to place to seriously damage your chance of placing
 
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using 5-7 runners to allow for no hopers..if Frankel places then the the 3rd fav places 41% of the time.

are there any total no hope placers though?...pacemaker only has to slope into 3rd and you are betting on one place only
 
Or the favourite to not fire or have trouble in running and then you not only have another place but an open win bet. It's a great E/W race.
 
Gamla Stan said:
There is not a bad EW bet in the race Steve.

The place part of betting Immortal Verse EW with Ladbrokes (7/1, 1/4 odds) pays 7/4. Her true price to place in the race is more like 8/11 to 4/5. This is tremendous value. Yes you have to risk the win part of the bet, but you are getting over twice the place price so it more than makes up for the loss of value in the win part.

I could give you the same example for every single horse other than Frankel in the race to a certain extent but in these "Bad EW Races" (Why do you think bookmakers call them that? They are bad EW bets to lay as they are certain to lose laying them long-term) the 2nd and 3rd favourites are always the best to play EW as the value on the place bet is so great.
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I'm quite aware of the concept, but in this race i dont think your £2.75 return for a £1 e/w, or less if you take Excelebration is a value pay off as I don't rate your chances of collecting on the win part at 7/1. 8/11 is available place only with the firms.
 
betsmate said:
Or the favourite to not fire or have trouble in running and then you not only have another place but an open win bet. It's a great E/W race.
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yes..buts what is greater chance..Frankel in the first 3..or out?

your chance of getting win bet up..is very small

i can see the appeal of eway..if viewing the result with rose tinted spectacles..but some of those ..no hopers..pricewise..are actually pretty good horses who could quite easily place

its one of those races where people will look at PV and DG and treat them like no hopers due to their price..when in fact if they are on song they can place in this more times than those win odds suggest
 
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Sussex Stakes. Goodwood 3.15.

Will stepping up to 10f nest time be at the back of connections eyes? Can Queally ease up the horse even if he wanted too?

Blue Square:

Frankel to win by 2 lengths or more 1/12
Frankel to win by 4 lengths or more 1/4
Frankel to win by 6 lengths or more 4/7
Frankel to win by 8 lengths or more 11/10
Frankel to win by 10 lengths or more 7/4
Frankel to win by 12 lengths or more 3/1
Frankel to win by 14 lengths or more 11/2

Sportingbet:

Frankel wins by more than 6 lengths 10/11
Frankel wins by 6 lengths or less EVS
Frankel does not win Race 12/1

Coral:

Frankel to win by less than 4 lengths 9/2
Frankel to win by 4 to 7.5 lengths 9/4
Frankel to win by 8 to 11.5 lengths 9/4
Frankel to win by 12 lengths or over 11/4

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Qipco Sussex Stakes - Special Handicap Betting

William Hill

Bullet Train (+15 lengths)
11/4
Farhh (+ 8 lengths)
11/4
Frankel
11/4
Gabrial (+13 lengths)
11/4


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Would love to take Farhh +8 in a match bet with Frankel at the usual handicap odds it has to be said, BT will be eased IMO so a 20+ lengths job is entirely possible whilst Gabrial will need to step up massively on what he's shown so far to challenge.
 
SlimChance said:
Qipco Sussex Stakes - Special Handicap Betting

William Hill

Bullet Train (+15 lengths)
11/4
Farhh (+ 8 lengths)
11/4
Frankel
11/4
Gabrial (+13 lengths)
11/4


.
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Farhh is a bet there. The class difference between himself and Gabrial is bigger than it is between him and Frankel. Frankie won't make the mistake he made when riding Worthadd and Casamento against the great one when he was too close to him early on.
 
Betfair

1.6 Frankel (-5.5 lengths)
2.46 The Field (+5.5 lengths)


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