French Derby

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At the Start
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After today's stage...

Famous Name
Beret Rouge
Monmartre
High Rock
Mayweather
Salsalavie
Chinchon
Vision D'Etat
Trincot
Rock Fellow
Democrate
Magadan
Ibn Khaldhun
Zack Dream
Full Of Gold
Trois Rois
Moynahan
Hello Morning
Achill Island
Sligo
Starlish
Casual Conquest
Thewayyouare
City Leader
Blue Bresil
Prospect Wells
Natagora
 
It's been raining in Paris today and quite a lot over the weekend. Not a very dry week forecast either. They'll probably say the ground is heavy when it's good to soft!
 
I thought the way High Rock quickened in his trial having pulled very hard most of the way marked him down as an exciting prospect. Probably didn't beat a whole lot, but the manner in which he did it was very impressive. Stronger pace should suit, and soft ground obviously doesn't hold any fears. Imagine he will be a short price though.

Depending on her price, I will be looking at place laying Natagora. Will be very interesting to see how Famous Name gets on as well.
 
Wet spell hits Chantilly
28/05/2008 - 3:27:48 PM

Wet weather has hit Chantilly this week with the ground currently testing ahead of Sunday’s Prix du Jockey Club.

A release from the French governing body France Galop read: “A violent storm hit the area on Tuesday night with 21 millimetres of precipitation measured the following morning at the racecourse, (at) which ground is rated as very soft.

“Light showers are also expected on Wednesday and Thursday but the weather should be fine the next three days.

“As the wind blows on Chantilly while the temperature rises regularly at the moment, the Jockey Club course should be good to soft on Sunday.”




There were no surprises at the latest forfeit stage on Wednesday with Paul Cole’s Moynahan – due to run at Sandown on Thursday instead – and the Brian Meehan-trained City Leader the only horses withdrawn.

A safety limit of 20 will be imposed on the race and if there are no more defectors then Rock Fellow, Beret Rouge and the Aidan O’Brien-trained Sligo will be eliminated as the lowest-rated then two more from Chinchon, Mayweather, Montmartre and Zack Dream.
 
Heres the final 20

1 famous name
2 MONTMARTRE
3 democrate
4 high rock
5 mayweather
6 salsalavie
7 CHINCHON
8 vision d'etat
9 trincot
10 MAGADAN
11 ZACK DREAM
12 full of gold
13 trois rois
14 hello morning
15 achill island
16 starlish
17 thewayyouare
18 blue bresil
19 prospect wells
20 natagora

Whatever you back you're going to get a fair price as it looks wide open. High Rock, Democrate and Natagora (Dettori ride?) will probably be at the top end of the market, but I can't see them being shorter than 6s on the PMU.
 
Dettori definitely rides Natagora.

Sheikh Mohammed has bought Democrate (there goes the 85/1 value for the Arc) and McEvoy rides.

Best Prices:

11/4 High Rock
5/1 Thewayyouare
8/1 Natagora
12/1 Famous Name
12/1 Democrate
12/1 Prospect Wells
14/1 Vision d'Etat
20/1 Montmarte
20/1 Hello Morning
25/1 Achill Island
25/1 Starlish
25/1 Trois Rois
33/1 Bar

12/1 seems an outstanding price on Democrate, if it continues to dry out I'll not be messing about at that price.
 
Looking at the trials again I am sweeter and sweeter on Thewayyouare. I liked him alot as a two year old and I think this trip is perfect for him. Does the draw have a big effect in Chantilly over 12 furlongs?
 
10.5 Furlongs at the new distance, I've got a feeling higher to high middle numbers are favoured, but can't find any real evidence to support the hunch
 
Andre Fabre has only won one French Derby with Peintre Celebre ,also from memory I think he has only one Irish Derby with Winged Love and no Epsom Glory

surprising for such a powerfull stable.
 
He had Hurricane Run in the Irish Derby - not that it makes much difference to your point!

I'd be amazed if Natagora was still in with a shout with a furlong to go, let alone up to winning it.
 
Message to all the French, British and Irish jockeys.......DO NOT LET FRANKIE SIT IN FRONT OFF AN EASY LEAD.....AGAIN!!!!
 
With Natagora, I fear even Frankie will not be able for her to win this.

It is not very usual to see a Guineas winnerrunning in the french Derby with an entrie in the July Cup.
 
Originally posted by Gamla Stan@May 27 2008, 09:55 AM
Democrate for me. Has anywhere got any betting on it yet?
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I'm not completely convinced you've picked the right one out of the race? Do you think Jarnet is worth a short neck over Crastus?. Then consider Lellouches recent form over the last 2 weeks. All the bookies bar one firm (Ladbrokes) seem to have Starlish at twice the price of Democrate. This race looks ripe for an upset to me, and if you believe your rating for Democrate is right, then Starlish is your value with a different jock on board, and a very small margin to over turn on Prix du Hocquert. He also has the benefit of a wide draw which although not guaranteeing an easy passage shoudl reduce his chances of being involved in the inevitable hard luck story that this race throws up behind. Natagora and probably Famous Name from the mid point will probably force it, and provided Starlish is done for a sudden change of pace (I think this is possible as I'm not convinced he's blessed with the gears) he should be capable of geting nearer than his odds suggest. High Rock has the tactical speed to get out of trouble, but he would be a candidate to get boxed in I think, and although he's run quickly so far, he's never been asked to run at a strong pace for a sustained amount of time. If we get a quick even pace then stamina and consistancy through the fractions will be to the fore, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't weighing up a punt on Starlish at a price, as this looks fiercely competitive, with a whole host of evenly matche dtypes exhibiting a whole catalogue of contradictory formlines. You can just about unravel every horse in the feld back to another one somewhere. I wouldn't want to be on a short-price for the fav though. I can see this ending in tears for a few, and would rather take my chance on a bigger price getting lucky, then a fancied runner, as I'm sure good fortune is going to play its part here
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 30 2008, 11:46 PM
He had Hurricane Run in the Irish Derby - not that it makes much difference to your point!
Click to expand...
you right
my mistake

even though
3 Derbies in Ireland, France and england is a surprising figure for the little Napoleon in 30 years, especially when he has won 6 or 7 Arcs.



About this years race
The draw and luck in running essential,
looks a tight race, very difficult to call, maybe the best aprroach laying the main ones in betfair.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@May 30 2008, 05:15 PM
Looking at the trials again I am sweeter and sweeter on Thewayyouare. I liked him alot as a two year old and I think this trip is perfect for him. Does the draw have a big effect in Chantilly over 12 furlongs?
Click to expand...
I've tried mucking around with this a bit now, and probably need correct (a clarify) an earlier opinion.

Conventional wisdom is that the track favours low numbers on the round course with the turns coming where they do. However, recent history seems to suggest the race itself favours higher to middle numbers. Now it's only in the last 3 years that the trip has been reduced, but there's some evidence that in bigger fields the scrap for the rail has resulted in traffic problems for those drawn low, and if anythign those drawn higher hold sway. In truth though, there's very little in it, and things probably fall within the laws of random distribution associated with any data set of figures.

In the last 12 renewals the winner has come from

High = 4 (33%)
Middle = 5 (42%)
Low = 3 (25%)

Win and place figures don't really shed any light on things either

High = 15 (42%)
Middle = 11 (33%)
Low = 10 (28%)

The dataset is too small to draw any conclusions from, but it appears that luck in running is a more decisive factor. Holding Court won from stall 14 of 14, and Celtic Swing from 11 of 11. The lowest draw winner in the sample period was Anabee Blue who was drawn 2 of 14.

Since becoming a 10.5F race the same spread is maintained.

Lawman 5 of 20
Darsi 7 of 14
Shamardal 13 of 17

If I were looking to draw any conclusion (and it's tenuous at best) then higher to middle numbers seem to have prevailed in bigger fields, possibly due to bunching on the inside rail.

In races featuring 15 or more runners the following occurred

High = 2
Middle = 3
Low = 1

If places are added to the wins a similar pattern emerges

High = 7
Middle = 7
low = 4

Confused? So am I shrug::
 
Much is being made about Natagora's step up in trip for the first time, but it suddenly occurs to me she's going into additional new territory. Is this the first time she's been asked to run round a bend? So she goes to the front with a sprint start, doesn't make the bend and carries half the field out :D QED
 
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