chaumi
Well-known member
Running total for March now +285.38
A little rueful reflection on yesterday - I hadn't realized how close Duke Silver was to that coveted 4th place. So, that fairly inspired ante post Joseph O'Brien EW Trebles/4-folds was actually the mid 4 figures return bet. The Duke in the frame would have done it. A head and 2 inches! Mildly painful in retrospect!
He has two in the Irish Lincolnshire on Sunday. Don't scream winners immediately, and one of them is Dignam. I'd have to go look at the recording, but maybe Dignam wasn't actually given a hard time in the Fred Winter. Has won (a hurdle) off a 7 day break before. Obviously this is a slightly shorter gap, but you'd have to assume if he goes then Joseph thinks he'll be OK for it. The other one - Sindria - does have the whiff of a possibility on paper.
On to today...
Well, it's certainly exceedingly pleasant going into the last day not needing a winner. A fairly unusual occurrence, regularly enough that it's down to the County to get out of trouble.
It's extra nice this year...because fvck me I am struggling to see where a winner is going to come from.
An odd final day with nothing shouting sack, crack, and back. Can't recall one quite like it. Clearly, the best option will be to watch and enjoy it with nowt on (there are some things you just can't unsee once you've seen them!). Will have to see how it goes and hope some inspiration strikes.
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Looks potentially painful everywhere else, too. Will have to be very careful. Likely it's only worth properly considering anything in the 40+ bracket, which will rule a significant number of these out. Having said that, three or four winners wouldn't be a total surprise either...
Remember, these are always first pass. They'll all need deeper thought closer to race time ( edit* though added some early thoughts in places, and with a second check the majority are single figures, so probably/possibly no bets)...
Jetzet 4.55 Don **Edit: Is expected. If it were soft, would probably be a 'should be odds on'. But there are at least 3 others that on paper/breeding/trainer could upset the fav on likely fastish ground.
Painted Wolf 2.54 Fakenham
Adaay Dancing 3.34 Fak
Takeit Easy 4.15 Fak * Edit, prob too old, but there is a parallel universe where a case can be made.
Tickettothestars 4.30 Southwell * Edit, highly unlikely to get within 5 lengths of the Cunha horse
Cabeza De Llave 5.05 Wolves * Edit NR
Hover on the Wind/Irish Dancer 5.10 South
Perfect Judgment 5.30 Dundalk
Midnight Stagger/Waystar 6.00 Dun
Lapidarist/Family Values 6.40 Wolves
Land of the Giants / On The Cards 7.00 Dun
Zu Run 7.10 Wolves
Enpassant 7.20 South
Mighty Ruler 7.40 Wolves
Ring Fenced/Scammer 8.20 Southwell
A little rueful reflection on yesterday - I hadn't realized how close Duke Silver was to that coveted 4th place. So, that fairly inspired ante post Joseph O'Brien EW Trebles/4-folds was actually the mid 4 figures return bet. The Duke in the frame would have done it. A head and 2 inches! Mildly painful in retrospect!
He has two in the Irish Lincolnshire on Sunday. Don't scream winners immediately, and one of them is Dignam. I'd have to go look at the recording, but maybe Dignam wasn't actually given a hard time in the Fred Winter. Has won (a hurdle) off a 7 day break before. Obviously this is a slightly shorter gap, but you'd have to assume if he goes then Joseph thinks he'll be OK for it. The other one - Sindria - does have the whiff of a possibility on paper.
On to today...
Well, it's certainly exceedingly pleasant going into the last day not needing a winner. A fairly unusual occurrence, regularly enough that it's down to the County to get out of trouble.
It's extra nice this year...because fvck me I am struggling to see where a winner is going to come from.
- The Triumph is the usual nightmare.
- Everyone and their dog knows about Tellherthename in the County and I don't immediately see anything else.
- The Mares there is nothing that's going to win at a price.
- Albert Bartlett - I did think Espresso Milan might have a chance, but the riding arrangements suggest unlikely.
- Not sure if I've backed anything in a Gold Cup since the Commander. Seems next to anything could win this one. Though that might be an opportunity rather than a problem.
- If Music Drive is a reasonable price in the Hunters, could take some pennies. Although that would be a fairly pointless guess. But if Music Drive can run a race, that suggests Gracchus De Balme can, too, with known big-field form. And he's at fairly lofty odds currently.
- La Pinsonniere would have been mighty interesting in the Martin Pipe (now runs Kempton Sat, unlikely double figures but if she is then she's a bet). From what's left, nothing jumps out.
An odd final day with nothing shouting sack, crack, and back. Can't recall one quite like it. Clearly, the best option will be to watch and enjoy it with nowt on (there are some things you just can't unsee once you've seen them!). Will have to see how it goes and hope some inspiration strikes.
**********************************
Looks potentially painful everywhere else, too. Will have to be very careful. Likely it's only worth properly considering anything in the 40+ bracket, which will rule a significant number of these out. Having said that, three or four winners wouldn't be a total surprise either...
Remember, these are always first pass. They'll all need deeper thought closer to race time ( edit* though added some early thoughts in places, and with a second check the majority are single figures, so probably/possibly no bets)...
Jetzet 4.55 Don **Edit: Is expected. If it were soft, would probably be a 'should be odds on'. But there are at least 3 others that on paper/breeding/trainer could upset the fav on likely fastish ground.
Painted Wolf 2.54 Fakenham
Adaay Dancing 3.34 Fak
Takeit Easy 4.15 Fak * Edit, prob too old, but there is a parallel universe where a case can be made.
Tickettothestars 4.30 Southwell * Edit, highly unlikely to get within 5 lengths of the Cunha horse
Cabeza De Llave 5.05 Wolves * Edit NR
Hover on the Wind/Irish Dancer 5.10 South
Perfect Judgment 5.30 Dundalk
Midnight Stagger/Waystar 6.00 Dun
Lapidarist/Family Values 6.40 Wolves
Land of the Giants / On The Cards 7.00 Dun
Zu Run 7.10 Wolves
Enpassant 7.20 South
Mighty Ruler 7.40 Wolves
Ring Fenced/Scammer 8.20 Southwell
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