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Friday 6th March - Today's Bets, Betting, Race & Runner Analysis + Future Pointers

chaumi

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 7, 2012
Messages
1,621
Location
East Midlands
Total running on to 6th March : +127.6

After yesterday's excitement, it's not easy to see where a winner will come from today. Suspect the best chances might come from Dubai, if it's on, but maybe one of the others can spring a mild surprise. Not hard to see a potential blank day all round, and I can see it might be wise to bottle plenty on this (fairly limited) list, even if they're big enough to risk.

Let's hope I'm wrong...

Charismatic Chick/Equador 1.35 Fontainebleau

Dantes Lad 2.50 Meydan

Culzean 2.50 Ayr Can't win, but one to watch.

Claymore 4.00 Meydan

Elemental Eye/Green Team 4.26 Newc

Witness Stand/Hawksbill 4.35 Meydan

Perfect Judgment 5.12 Dundalk

Night Breeze 5.30 Newc

Calyxoh 5.45 Mey

Midnight Stagger 6.45 Dundalk

Desert Master 7.30 Newc
 
Total running on to 6th March : +127.6

After yesterday's excitement, it's not easy to see where a winner will come from today. Suspect the best chances might come from Dubai, if it's on, but maybe one of the others can spring a mild surprise. Not hard to see a potential blank day all round, and I can see it might be wise to bottle plenty on this (fairly limited) list, even if they're big enough to risk.

Let's hope I'm wrong...

Charismatic Chick/Equador 1.35 Fontainebleau

Dantes Lad 2.50 Meydan

Culzean 2.50 Ayr Can't win, but one to watch.

Claymore 4.00 Meydan

Elemental Eye/Green Team 4.26 Newc

Witness Stand/Hawksbill 4.35 Meydan

Perfect Judgment 5.12 Dundalk

Night Breeze 5.30 Newc

Calyxoh 5.45 Mey

Midnight Stagger 6.45 Dundalk

Desert Master 7.30 Newc
You must enjoy pouring over formbooks? I recall over 30 years ago when I lived in Lingfield an old man at the local bookies ( there was only one) an old guy who had a table with the sporting life spread out and would spend hours studying it. He often did very well. I have always been much less scientific.

Does studying everything really pay off?
 
Ah, there's very little 'studying', GC. As in what anyone might consider as 'traditional form studying'.

I'd say the bottom line is a substantial part of it is instinct born of betting in, watching, and knowing the results of (tens of) thousands of races. Maybe hundreds of thousands, I'd have to go calculate.

And, resulting from that, an 'instinctive' feel for what types of horses win (or lose, or run well in) what types of races, and in what circumstances, and against what levels of opposition. ofc, all that incorporates a huge range of factors that it's near impossible to fully quantify.

I say instinct, and sometimes it (or aspects of it) really is/are, but, in reality, it's assimilation and retrieval of a collection of millions of bits of brain-stored data, supplemented with whatever extra data is needed to come to a betting conclusion.

Takes about an hour each day to scan through the runners for 5-6 meetings, maybe anywhere from 30 seconds to a few minutes to conclude if anything that comes up is worth noting to bet or watch. If there is something that appears super interesting in whatever list that ends up with, yeah that might get another few minutes either looking at the horse concerned or perhaps quickly judging the other runners.

It probably helps that Chaumi is very likely on the autistic spectrum somewhere, as a lot of us are.

Of course, following any early checks, there's a whole afternoon and evening (with odd gaps, and sometimes morning meetings) spent looking at markets, watching, learning, placing bets etc etc, plus all the time reading or interpreting whatever comes up that might be useful or interesting.

I would have to admit that horses, horse racing, and betting take up likely around 80% of my waking thoughts one way or another. Indeed, a regular jibe received from nearest and dearest goes along the lines of...

"you don't know what day such and such's birthday/wedding/anniversary etc is, you don't know when this particular important event x is happening, but you always know what time your f$%^ing horse is running, don't you."

And that would be correct, yes.

So does all that pay off?

Depends on what you expect out of it and what you mean by a pay-off.

For me, in particular, I get tons of entertainment value out of it. For better or worse, horse racing defines me. Without it, Chaumi wouldn't be Chaumi. Or not the whole Chaumi, anyway.

But I think you mean financial pay-off.

In the past, it's paid financially, yes. Fortunately (and I had some luck when it was needed), it's paid enough to make the whole 50 years worth of it worthwhile balanced against any time spent.

Right now, I'd say I'm riding a bit of a lucky run that has to come to an end. Or at a minimum, a disruption. That's where those two key concepts of persistence and resilience will (maybe may) need to kick in. Disruptions are to be expected - this game is deliciously predictable in its unpredictability and its predictability. Always will be, or it wouldn't be what it is. The question is 'can you get enough predictions right, at either the frequencies or the odds required, to get what you want out of it?'

It's worth noting at this point that a super-informed, highly eloquent, and clearly self-actualized punter once said to me 'you make your own luck'. And he was/is right, of course. Though you always welcome any help, and it would be foolish to refuse it!

Does it pay for others, using whatever methods they use?

Yes, I know it does. Several good examples are right here on this forum.

Do they do it with 'traditional' form study?

Partly, maybe. Yes, in some instances, quite likely (though, I'd suggest, only with some form of heavy specialization).

But almost certainly the most 'successful' use methods they've developed that are outside of (or in addition to/as an enhancement to) what an 'average' every day punter might use.
 
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Ah, there's very little 'studying', GC. As in what anyone might consider as 'traditional form studying'.

I'd say the bottom line is a substantial part of it is instinct born of betting in, watching, and knowing the results of (tens of) thousands of races. Maybe hundreds of thousands, I'd have to go calculate.

And, resulting from that, an 'instinctive' feel for what types of horses win (or lose, or run well in) what types of races, and in what circumstances, and against what levels of opposition. ofc, all that incorporates a huge range of factors that it's near impossible to fully quantify.

I say instinct, and sometimes it (or aspects of it) really is/are, but, in reality, it's assimilation and retrieval of a collection of millions of bits of brain-stored data, supplemented with whatever extra data is needed to come to a betting conclusion.

Takes about an hour each day to scan through the runners for 5-6 meetings, maybe anywhere from 30 seconds to a few minutes to conclude if anything that comes up is worth noting to bet or watch. If there is something that appears super interesting in whatever list that ends up with, yeah that might get another few minutes either looking at the horse concerned or perhaps quickly judging the other runners.

It probably helps that Chaumi is very likely on the autistic spectrum somewhere, as a lot of us are.

Of course, following any early checks, there's a whole afternoon and evening (with odd gaps, and sometimes morning meetings) spent looking at markets, watching, learning, placing bets etc etc, plus all the time reading whatever comes up that might be useful or interesting.

I would have to admit that horses, horse racing, and betting take up likely around 80% of my waking thoughts one way or another. Indeed, a regular jibe received from nearest and dearest goes along the lines of...

"you don't know what day such and such's birthday/wedding/anniversary etc is, you don't know when this particular important event x is happening, but you always know what time your f$%^ing horse is running, don't you."

And that would be correct, yes.

So does all that pay off?

Depends on what you expect out of it and what you mean by a pay-off.

For me, in particular, I get tons of entertainment value out of it. For better or worse, horse racing defines me. Without it, Chaumi wouldn't be Chaumi. Or not the whole Chaumi, anyway.

But I think you mean financial pay-off.

In the past, it's paid financially, yes. Fortunately (and I had some luck when it was needed), it's paid enough to make the whole 50 years worth of it worthwhile balanced against any time spent.

Right now, I'd say I'm riding a bit of a lucky run that has to come to an end. Or at a minimum, a disruption. That's where those two key concepts of persistence and resilience will (maybe may) need to kick in. Disruptions are to be expected - this game is deliciously predictable in its unpredictability and its predictability. Always will be, or it wouldn't be what it is. The question is 'can you get enough predictions right, at either the frequencies or the odds required, to get what you want out of it?'

It's worth noting at this point that a super-informed, highly eloquent, and clearly self-actualized punter once said to me 'you make your own luck'. And he was/is right, of course. Though you always welcome any help, and it would be foolish to refuse it!

Does it pay for others, using whatever methods they use?

Yes, I know it does. Several good examples are right here on this forum.

Do they do it with 'traditional' form study?

Partly, maybe. Yes, in some instances, quite likely (though, I'd suggest, only with some form of heavy specialization).

But almost certainly the most 'successful' use methods they've developed that are outside of (or in addition to/as an enhancement to) what an 'average' every day punter might use.
I think that dedicated observers of live horseracing with a good memory and a notebook will argue that listening to their eyes would give them the best advantage. A horse that is being held back. A hprse that is held back in the stalls,a horse being held back, a top class jockey booking or maybe a wind op can make a difference.
 
Chaumi from my google search means straw or stubble ? This surely can't be where you drew your name from.

I think if you made a person pie a bit like a Sweeny Todd type deal. You minced up a horse racing expert, a philosopher, a Buddhist monk, a pile of magic mushrooms and a sprinkling of Marijuana i reckon you could aptly name it Chaumi pie.
 
Chaumi comes from Chaumiere. A bragging prize for the first person to explain.

But your associative skills are second to none, Dan. I'll take that with great delight.
 
Chaumi from my google search means straw or stubble ? This surely can't be where you drew your name from.

I think if you made a person pie a bit like a Sweeny Todd type deal. You minced up a horse racing expert, a philosopher, a Buddhist monk, a pile of magic mushrooms and a sprinkling of Marijuana i reckon you could aptly name it Chaumi pie.
Or Sam Smith?

 
Damn. Last night I decided to stick my bets on for today and I took Kingcormac at 5-1. It has just romped home at 11-1 but I didn't get the BOG :(
 
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