Friday

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,034
2.30
Aegean was odds-on earlier in the week and I came online this evening hoping for an ew bet to nothing on LL but she's deposed the American filly as fav. An over-reaction to one bad run today? If I thought I could get 9/4bpg I might steam in.

3.05
BBI looks the one to beat here but I've backed Aqwaal. I still think Nehaam's Newmarket form is very good but Hills appears to prefer the Aqwaal. Seems a fair hint. Looks a tight race though.

3.45
Three Guineas winners so you can't really expect any more from a Coronation field. I rate our race a fair bit higher than RPRs so I'm happy that Ghanaati will win cosily.

4.20
This should be a cracker and it isn't with any great confidence that I've punted Stone Of Scone. I just think on balance he's very marginally the percentage call possibly just from Kingdom Of Fife but I can also envisage a big run from Pinpoint.

4.55
Nothing doing.

5.30
I can see the low numbers dominating this. I intend to rate today's Britannia as two separate races even though four were involved in a photo right across the width of the track. I suspect the near side group thought they could afford to let the far side force a fast pace and they will probably push it a wee bit more on the near side in this. Plus there's more pace low here than in the Britannia where all the pace was high. It took me quite a while to whittle down the long list to a manageable one, then down to three against the field: Shifting Star, Musaalem and Seasider. I'm not setting too much store by SS's form this year. I reckon this is the target. Musaalem was fav for the big 7f h'cap here las autumn and also looks to have been put away for this. I suspect Seasider must be a fair bit more than an 85 handicapper and he's probably the percentage call.

I might punt R Hills in multiples on the Sheikh Hamdan horses.
 
2.30 A race to watch for me, the O'Brien filly is meant to be very special indeed but I respect the American horse and the prospect of a big improver from elsewhere.

3.05 Much like Freemantle, I just dont see why they are running BBI in this. Opposed...but as you say its a tight race so not sure with what. Maybe another watching race.

3.45 Oppose Again big time along with Rainbow View. Again should be running in the Pretty Polly. Think the Newmarket Guineas winner will be hard to beat and 9/4 win for her and 16s place for Heart Shaped is absolutely blinding value.

4.20 Dunno

4.55 Yankee Doodle is a horse I like alot for this. Stately Home is a dog and the bookies have got the prices wrong about the two Irish runners. Respect the favourite alot as well.
 
Stately Home looks a horrid creature and I am happy to have taken a lower view of the Hamilton race than others. Dhushan has looked like a horse of serious potential and if Robinson rides him close up, I cannot see anything getting past him.
 
Ghanaati is my banker of the meeting and the only horse bar Roaring Forte that I've been incredibly confident about.

In my current form, that makes her a massive lay!

The Oxx filly worries me more than the others.
 
Well having got onto the American challenge at the right time I thought it only fair to run the rule over Lillie Langtry (whose figure transpired to be very poor) in fact so poor she might constitute a danger as she must have a turn of foot to win a Gp3 by 2.5L's in such a slow time. On the plus side she'll be going into completely new territory tomorrow and having to face a pace she's never seen before, and in most cases horses get found out when being introduced to gate to post full on racing for the first time (although I tend to associate it with novice hurdlers more than any other type).

Out of curiousity, does Naas have a watering system? I think I recorded Bath as producing ground like this once, but I reckon that's the fastest ground I've ever recorded. In fact I'd call it bone breaking dangerous rather than 'firm'

O'Brien only seems to have had Youresothrilling and Rumplestilskin in thsi race previously (neither won) but it's probably a fair reflection of what he must think of Lillie Langtry. All things being equal though, Aegean should just run away from the field. The draw might be a disadvantage, but you'd have to think she can overcome. That she already has the best form having accounted for colts in her Gd3 win, and obviously that's been franked by Jealous Again (in case no one noticed). If she transfers the performance to turf and simply reproduces what she did at Churchill Downs then she won't need to have improved to win this by some distance
 
I think you might be looking at the wrong Guineas winner. I'm reinvesting some of my Vision d'Etat winnings.
 
I have 3 that I'll have big bets on tomorrow.
Montaff, Halicarnassus and Dhaular Dhar with a small each way bet on Nashmiah who I am giving one last chance to in a G1.
 
2.30 Looks a race between the front 2, Aegeans price is more to do with the result today than anything, may drift further and be the value.

3.05 Is a mish-mash of the Derby / Dante with a Chester trial winner and 1 or 2 others thrown in. They were so optimistic about Montaff before the Derby for such an outsider that maybe he's worth another chance at a price.

3.45 Dangerous though it may be, is Rainbow View to be given one last chance? Beaten fair and square in the Oaks, even considering the interference, but there was confidence behind her that day. Drop of rain wouldn't go amiss, but back over a mile, at Ascot, just one more chance...

4.20 Stone of Scone is being well supported to turn around form with Moonquake on 5lb better terms for 2.25 lengths, no bet race for me.

4.55 Interesting to see support for Yankee Doodle & Clowance House, no strong views but may have a closer look at the latter.

5.30 Supporters of Something will have been encouraged by the spread of runners accross the track today with his 31 draw, bound to be supported, Shifting Star is interesting, good record at Ascot and reunited with winning partner from the Shergar Cup Gerard Mosse, drawn 11.
 
Desert Orchid said:
4.20
I can also envisage a big run from Pinpoint.
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If Pinpoint doesn't win tomorrow I will pack in form study and start picking them from out a hat. Never run a bad race at Ascot, third (in what I think i'm right in saying) probably was a decent renewel last year, and if you forgive last run is the only horse to be backing at them prices.

Or should I say, a "solid e/w" chance!
 
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Native Ruler should bounce back today, he's been targeted at this since the Dante.

Jira is ew value in the opener.
 
I quietly fancy Heart Shaped, at least e/w. She looked stunning in newmarket and ran a good race. she had a nice break as well and could not really be in better hands. jockey is in form as well ....
 
I liked South Easter a lot at Chester, he's a lovely type of horse. I'll have him and I'll give Rainbow View another chance as well.
 
What price would Sariska be for this?

Debussy beat Midday at Epsom back in April over 10F's pretty similarly to Sariska at the same venue in the Oaks. He's then run 3rd in the Vase in a race that provided the Derby 3rd, 5th and 8th, and yet the Dante, which provided the 6th, 9th and 10th and seems to be the race that's forming the market. At Epsom he beat Black Bear Island 4.5L's and re-opposes on 3Ibs better terms here, with the latter not having the alleged assistance of Mr Personality in the plate this time either. Given that O'Brien seems to be able to extract improvement out of horses above that of mortal trainers when aiming at a target etc Debussy's run against Golden Sword and Masterofthehorse from Chester to Epsom is pretty well spot on with that, which wouldn't indicate he's in retreat. The time of the Vase was faster than the Dante, and being run as it is at 12.5F's stamina shouldn't be a problem today if given a stronger pace than at Epsom (which seems likely). You might argue that Glass Harmonium and to a lesser extent Monitor Closely provided a boost for the Dante yesterday, but then since this was allegedly grade 2 horses dropping into listed, all three who represented it were entitled to be there or there abouts and 1-3-5 might be a par return.

Wouldn't a horse that's been targetted at this race since the Dante not translate into 'not considered good enough for Epsom', Flame? I realise that trainers might take the opinion that they can target this in the hope that some of the Epsom combatants have left their race on the Downs, but this years renewal was pretty soft in terms of pace, and I'm not sure it's going to be the residual factor that it has proven to be in the past in some cases.

I've personally got 2.5L's covering six horses with Debussy narrowly shading them. Under these circumstances anything with a bit of class if its prepared to exert it, would win. Theoretically that should be BBI, but he looks held on these terms from Epsom. I reckon Debussy at 12's is fair punt?
 
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I would agree with you Warbler but Gosden's are just not right, they are running appallingly. Every single one yesterday was beaten a good distance and on the other two days, even Tazeez and Virtual who were his best performers, didn't run well.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I would agree with you Warbler but Gosden's are just not right, they are running appallingly. Every single one yesterday was beaten a good distance and on the other two days, even Tazeez and Virtual who were his best performers, didn't run well.
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I'd be more concerned about the distance that his handicappers have been beaten to be honest, but this could always reflect something else of course if he's got a bunch badly handicapped at the moment (though I'd tend to agree that it points to trainer form as the more likely cause). I'd be a bit reluctant to invoke Tazeez or Virtual though. They were afterall beaten 4.5L's and 5L's at prices of 16/1 and 14/1 so were hardly fancied, and both were taking a bit of a leap into the unknown. He's 53% RTF, which isn't appalling but the way they've been finsihing so far down their fields is a definate worry. I'd say Virual and Tazeez probably finished where you'd expect them to though, albeit you coudl argue that they shoudl have disposed of Twice Over, but then you could equally argue he's run a big race, and they've run to their form
 
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I love the Queen's Vase every year, all the horses are stepping in distance and sometimes a really good staying prospect wins it. Yankee Doodle seems to be improving and looks a useful stayer in the making.
 
Interesting that Ryan Moore appears to have been given the Coolmore rides that Murtagh would have been on.
 
What does everyone make of Sweet Sonnet in the first? She could be anything, very green on debut.
 
Its a day of madness for me first race gonna go with the Godolphin filly big each way bet and then to top it off with a slice of insanity going over a cliff with Rainbow View. Again huge each way bet with the oxx filly thrown in for good measure as well.
 
I'm having a small interest in Indian Days today. Three runs this season have all been in Group 3 company (the last two quite decent efforts), back in handicap company today and available at 19 on the exchange.
 
Very green would be an understatement Hamm - she could be anything but on breeding you'd think she'd need at least another furlong or two to be seen at her best. Her brother won at 9f in a G1 Derby trial and other siblings won at 7-9f. Fancy her for the places and likely to get some value if opposing the front two :)
 
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