Are you convinced this isn't just a morning glory, Flame?
Quite;
For me Tom Queally should have been sacked from the job at Cecil's way before the Dante. But his poor race reading again saw him on another nice horse from the yard hemmed in and never really getting a run. Some will say he just wasn't good enough or quick enough when the gaps presented themselves but if you're on a galloping horse who doesn't possess a turn of foot, then why would you go for the inside and risk getting caught on heels and hemmed in.
What we do know is that whilst Freemantle, Black Bear Island and Kite Wood have all flopped from the Dante, those who may not have had the rub of the green haven't.
Monitor Closely who was trapped out wide in the Dante was one of the last to commit and ran respectively running on well in the end. Outclassed by two very good horses yesterday he still faired well in 3rd.
Glass Harmonium, another slow learning horse was another trapped in when it mattered in the Dante turned the form upside down yesterday.
To a certain degree Crowded House who got a similar run as Native Ruler in the Dante, ran well in the Derby, he was not disgraced anyway.
Native Ruler would have to come into the same bracket as the three above, he was only beaten 4.5L on only his 3rd career start and his first test in pattern company. Found out by the trip and the nature of the race, it would be harsh to have said he ran poorly.
Since that run he seems to have matured a bit at home and continues to impress in the morning. This longer trip should really suit him, as will the galloping track.
Henry Cecil decided to side step Epsom feeling he wasn't ready for a Derby and was still too big a baby and would probably get lost on the track. The time given to mature, albeit it an extra 2 weeks than those who ran in the Derby has enabled him to get a further 3 gallops into the horse and also try him out on the 10f of the Flat Gallop in Newmarket.
Ideally he would have preferred a bit of juice in the ground but he is a winner on a fast surface so it can't be used as an excuse today.
He is stepping up to his trip and should have learned a lot from his last run. Aqwaal another stepping up in trip and grade has worked smartly in front of Fareer at home, so must rate a danger whilst South Easter who missed Epsom with a cough has always been the type to just ground it out.
I feel it's harsh on Native Ruler to try and label him morning glory after three runs, of which he was only beaten 4.5f when not getting a clear run to find his stride in a Dante, a comfortable winner of his maiden where the 2nd pulled a long way clear of the 3rd, and second in a maiden where he didn't get a hard ride and a good few winners have come out of the race.
There is no better judge normally than the handicapper and he has him rated 105 which is 7lb off the top rated horse whilst receiving 3lb. This puts him 4lb wrong at the weights, which is what he also is with Debussy and Your Old Pal. He is then 1lb wrong with Montaff and Father Time.
I'm not sure what to make of Black Bear Island but on his Derby run you would be hard pressed to say he improved. He may not have handled Epsom but again stamina has to be taken on trust and he may have been better off shielding a penalty in the Hampton Court.
Debussy is interesting, he faired best of those who ran in the Derby, but his home work with London Bridge was not franked yesterday and also having made no impression late on at Chester over 12f and weakening inside the final 2f at Epsom, stamina is not assured. His Epsom defeat of Midday was over 10f remember.
Montaff ran too bad too be true at Epsom, and through a line with Age Of Aquarius he probably should have been near enough upsides Debussy. My fear for this horse is he may just gallop, but I don't think he is out of it, far from it in fact. Also the Channon horses in the last 7 days really seem to have struck form. I would wan't him on my side.
Father Time the other rated the same as Montaff has stamina doubts at this trip and he hasn't run on well enough at the end of 10f to suggest he wants further and he was not picking up at the end of the Lingfield trial either. In the gallops with Native Ruler over 8f - 10f, he has severely struggled to stay within 3L of Native Ruler and prior to the Dante he would have at least made Native Ruler work to get the better of him. Either one has progressed or the other has regressed. Given Father Time's form hasn't regressed I believe the former has occurred.
Of the remainder of the field, I do like South Easter but he doesn't make things easy for himself and his workmanlike style just leaves me thinking he's vulnerable. He had a week off between Epsom and this because of a cough and whilst he is fine now, I'm sure that will have taken a small bit out of him.
Your Old Pal grabbed me when I looked at my figures, he's solid and working well. However he looked a horse last time who may struggle with this trip, and he showed similar at Newbury. On the run in between where he beat Palavacini, there wasn't too strong a gallop so his stamina wasn't over stretched. He was coming to his end late on as well. I thought he was the potential class horse in the race and 12/1 was big, but the trip worried me.
Free Agent last time was too disappointing to be considered, whilst Beauchamp Xerxes and Hail Caser look outclassed.
Nehaam who was just in front of Monitor Closely at Newmarket can't be written off but his poor run in the Dante leaves you looking for excuses and the yard form at present is not encouraging.
On the face of it, the official handicapper tells me Native Ruler needs to improve 4lb from the Dante to be in with a winning chance. I personally feel he has improved and I would be hopeful that it's significantly more than 4lb. Secondly I feel 4lb improvement can be gained by the step up in trip and hopefully an honest pace.
4lb to find and 15/2 I feel is solid Ew value. He has the scope to and I believe he has the ability to. His homework is pleasing, the yards in form and I find it encouraging Queally has renewed faith in him instead of riding Father Time who is narrowly better off at the weights with him.
If the Gosden yard were in better form I would be slightly scared of Debussy, but for me I have saved on Montaff at big odds to make 10% stake profit, he is overpriced and Aqwaal also carries a saver to make 5% profit. I covered a break even bet on Your Old Pal in case he stays.
However my main stake to make a decent profit is Native Ruler whom I'm on at 15/2.
I also rung up Ladbrokes for a special bet on him winning today and the St Leger, at which they accommodated me at 66/1 Ew 1,2,3 1/4 Odds. I staked a sizeable bet which they were happy to lay, and I showed this bet to clients at 10.30am this morning as faith in the horse and advised them to seek the bet themselves.
If I'm wrong about the horse, then I'm wrong and I would hold my hands up. But I don't feel he can be classed as morning glory just yet and I feel his claims today to at least be in the frame are there to be seen. He should make up into a St Leger horse like his half brother Sixties Icon and if he were to be doing that I would expect him to at least place today. I would be very disappointed if he wasn't to place today, and I strongly feel he will win.
